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Ally Pally Snowman
07 June 2023 10:04:31

Goes to show how easy it is to reach hot temps now without a consistent pattern. Think any heat this year might be accompanied by some stormy weather

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



Indeed the UKV has 31c for Saturday,  Arpege 29c. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Charmhills
07 June 2023 10:29:57
Roll on the warm sunshine and towering thunder clouds.😎⚡
Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Retron
07 June 2023 16:11:50
An interesting take on things on the 12z GFS, with showers and highs widely in the teens for most of us on Saturday. Quite a change from earlier runs, to say the least!

Sunday then has highs in the low to mid 20s for most of the population.

 
Leysdown, north Kent
Super Cell
07 June 2023 16:46:53

An interesting take on things on the 12z GFS, with showers and highs widely in the teens for most of us on Saturday. Quite a change from earlier runs, to say the least!

Sunday then has highs in the low to mid 20s for most of the population.

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Even more different is the period around T180. You might as well have chalk and cheese as descriptions. I'm beginning to remember why I gave up model watching!

Low steaming in from the NW to the SW and then combining with a Scandi low (!) to sit over the top of Scotland by T+282. Can't wait for the rest of the run. Suffice to say it's as consistent as a bunch of monkeys entering the start data😀.

Ties in with the comment I referred to earlier on the 'wet' GFS update. Perhaps that's what was showing when GezM posted.
Farnley/Pudsey Leeds
40m asl
Retron
07 June 2023 16:50:41

Even more different is the period around T240. You might as well have chalk and cheese as descriptions. I'm beginning to remember why I gave up model watching!

Originally Posted by: Super Cell 


Yes, that's more of a seasonal chart (the "European monsoon") - I guess the models will be juggling climatology as well as the current blocked setup.
Leysdown, north Kent
Super Cell
07 June 2023 16:54:27

Yes, that's more of a seasonal chart (the "European monsoon") - I guess the models will be juggling climatology as well as the current blocked setup.

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Yeah. Just edited to provide context.

Doesn't tie up with the MetO ten dayer either, but that does show a drop in pressure towards the end of their runs, all be it after a strong rebound in high pressure just beforehand.
Farnley/Pudsey Leeds
40m asl
Saint Snow
07 June 2023 17:26:38
That 12z GFS is UUUG-LEEEEEE

😯

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Jiries
07 June 2023 17:30:43

Indeed the UKV has 31c for Saturday,  Arpege 29c. 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Considering how cold it been lately it would be very big change from cold to hot day.  Most likely mid 20s to higher 20's from Saturday onward.
moomin75
07 June 2023 17:44:05

That 12z GFS is UUUG-LEEEEEE

😯

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

As is the GEM.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
picturesareme
07 June 2023 17:47:24

Considering how cold it been lately it would be very big change from cold to hot day.  Most likely mid 20s to higher 20's from Saturday onward.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 



Cold? 🤣 
doctormog
07 June 2023 17:50:19
The GFS looks very much on its own with cooler conditions at times over the weekend. The other output so far this evening, UKMO, GEM, and ICON, has a much warmer picture (mid to high 20s in places - not here of course!)
Taylor1740
07 June 2023 18:12:53

That 12z GFS is UUUG-LEEEEEE

😯

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


yeah it won't happen though, will be replaced by more high pressure and drought conditions no doubt 
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
doctormog
07 June 2023 18:18:25
The ECM 12z has mid to high 20s across a swathe of England on Saturday too (the rest of the run has yet to come out at time of writing):

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/max-temperature-6h/20230610-1800z.html  
Ally Pally Snowman
07 June 2023 18:28:30

The ECM 12z has mid to high teens across a swathe of England on Saturday too (the rest of the run has yet to come out at time of writing):

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/max-temperature-6h/20230610-1800z.html  

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Looks like a large area of 28c in the East ? 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
doctormog
07 June 2023 18:53:22

Looks like a large area of 28c in the East ? 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Yes you're right. I have no idea why I typed teens, I meant 20s!
Chunky Pea
07 June 2023 19:33:00

Yes, that's more of a seasonal chart (the "European monsoon") - I guess the models will be juggling climatology as well as the current blocked setup.

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Apparently, the southern arm of the Pacific jet is in the process of firing up at the moment after a very prolonged period of lullness. I'm hoping that it will have some knock on effect on the Atlantic pattern down the line, especially if it kick starts a more active Atlantic jet to power through these unending series of unmovable blocking highs we've suffered through over the last 3 or 4 years. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Ally Pally Snowman
07 June 2023 19:44:41

Yes you're right. I have no idea why I typed teens, I meant 20s!

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



The ECM is a very good run in general tonight.  We do eventually get the north easterly back but it doesn't look like a cloudfest as temps remain decent for most. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
07 June 2023 19:56:18
Latest UKV run 3pm really going for it max temps Friday to Monday  29c, 31c, 29c, 30c. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Matty H
07 June 2023 21:20:03

Latest UKV run 3pm really going for it max temps Friday to Monday  29c, 31c, 29c, 30c. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Yep. Lurvvvvvely!!!!!
Jiries
07 June 2023 21:25:30

Cold? 🤣 

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 



Yes seriously very cold 12 to 13 maxes which is nearly 10c below average daily.  Coming out of work tonight to greet the summer smell and warmer so seem the warmer air now moving in earlier with 22C max in Slough so that 3 higher than silly app put 19C today.
LeedsLad123
08 June 2023 00:01:15

Cold? 🤣 

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


You know full well it’s been quite cold in much of the country this past week. East coast stations have had a week straight of 12-15C maximums. Even here it’s felt cool for the past couple of days with only limited sunshine - yesterday saw a high of 16.8C here and that was only briefly in the afternoon, most of the day was around 14C. 

So yes. Definitely cold for June. This current setup is really not good for most of the country and only really benefits the far south and west, that’s why the June CET is currently 0.4C below average.
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
08 June 2023 06:44:41
UKV model had its Weetabix this morning Friday to Monday max temps. 29c, 33c, 30c, 32c. 

Be amazed if it's not over doing it but you never know.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Taylor1740
08 June 2023 07:00:27

UKV model had its Weetabix this morning Friday to Monday max temps. 29c, 33c, 30c, 32c. 

Be amazed if it's not over doing it but you never know.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


I highly doubt we'd get those sort of temperatures, BBC weather was saying an outside chance of hitting 30c so I would expect somewhere in the SE to max out at around 29c.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
08 June 2023 07:07:48
According to WX, the warmth over NW Europe including Britain continues through into week 2, with Denmark and surrounding areas becoming a significant hot spot. In contrast, the cool area over N Russia has never gone away and in week 2 extends much further, down to N Ukraine. Dry in week 1 from N Sea to Baltic with that persistent band of wet weather across S Europe, the latter tilting from a SW -NE orientation (i.e. Spain to Romania with an extension to Poland) to a NW-SE orientation (i.e. France and SW Britain to Greece). More rain also in W Russia.

GFS Op - the current HP over Britain moves E-wards to Estonia 1030mb Mon 12th with a S-ly drift for Britain which is also affected by LP from France. The HP moves back again, to Shetland 1030mb Thu 15th and the NE-lies are also back! However it fades and moves further N with most of Britain under slack LP of continental origin (not so slack locally, 1010mb Brittany Wed 21st). The generally low pressure stays around, esp in the S, though the final frame Sat 24th shows some development of the Azores HP.

ECM - Like GFS at first, but when the HP moves back it goes further S & W, somewhere near Rockall, allowing N-lies to move down the N Sea by Sat 17th

GEFS - very warm Sun 11th, in the S slowly declining to near norm Sun 18th but (unlike yesterday) rising again, slightly, over the following week; in N England and Scotland more generally above norm throughout. Some rain in most ens members around the 11th*, the east not seeing much of this, spits and spots after that in the S throughout, rather more in the N & W.

* the MetO forecast is for very localised showers, many areas missing them. but there is a major cluster in the Welsh borders on Sat evening. BBC Meteo group links this area in a line all the way down to the SE.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
08 June 2023 09:06:01

I highly doubt we'd get those sort of temperatures, BBC weather was saying an outside chance of hitting 30c so I would expect somewhere in the SE to max out at around 29c.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 



Indeed I think it does tend to over do things some what. Think it did last Summer as well. Most other models going for 28c ish Saturday.  Tuesday aswell could be another warm day 28/29c.

 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

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