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Super Cell
08 June 2023 09:22:15
Possibly predictably GFS has completely backed away from last night's transformation, with most of the threat of rain coming from incursions of low pressure from France. Overall a much less progressive solution and at first glance a warm and large calm one overall.
Farnley/Pudsey Leeds
40m asl
Saint Snow
08 June 2023 10:04:29

Possibly predictably GFS has completely backed away from last night's transformation, with most of the threat of rain coming from incursions of low pressure from France. Overall a much less progressive solution and at first glance a warm and large calm one overall.

Originally Posted by: Super Cell 




Splendid.

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
08 June 2023 10:13:35

Possibly predictably GFS has completely backed away from last night's transformation, with most of the threat of rain coming from incursions of low pressure from France. Overall a much less progressive solution and at first glance a warm and large calm one overall.

Originally Posted by: Super Cell 



I'm happy with the warm but I'd like some wet as well, not all at once but overnight and spread out for a few weeks.
Oh and a last wish for this post, a ceasefire on the dessicating wind front.
Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
+1
Saint Snow
08 June 2023 10:15:33

I'm happy with the warm but I'd like some wet as well, not all at once but overnight and spread out for a few weeks.
Oh and a last wish for this post, a ceasefire on the dessicating wind front.

Originally Posted by: NMA 




Just made similar points in the drought thread - especially about the very drying wind.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Retron
08 June 2023 16:36:15

I'm happy with the warm but I'd like some wet as well, not all at once but overnight and spread out for a few weeks.
Oh and a last wish for this post, a ceasefire on the dessicating wind front.

Originally Posted by: NMA 


Dessicating? Dew points don't seem that low, all things considered - not like we saw last year in July, for example, which really was dessicating.

I'm intrigued as to how Saturday is going to play out. GFS is rock solid on masses of cloud (enough to produce a UV index of 2 at 1PM down here, for example), with a steady breeze off the sea - and 25C as a result. ECM is even more absurd, showing 27C with similar conditions.

The Met Office automated forecast is for clear blue skies, a similar steady breeze and a high of only 21C.

It's unusual to see such disparities at only a day and a half out... and to not know whether it'll be a warmer version of what we have now, or an overcast, muggy, gloomy day.

Further inland, e.g. Reading, it's the other way round: the Met Office forecast is 28C, the GFS offers 24C. I really can't imagine a scenario where in a cloudy setup a coastal area with an onshore breeze would be warmer than one well inland, but we'll see, we'll see...
Leysdown, north Kent
Retron
08 June 2023 17:02:05
Saved for posterity - spot the 1025hPa isobar!
(The technical explanation is that the heat over land is lowering pressure fractionally, it just happens to cross the 1025hPa mark and hence you get that lovely UK-shaped outline!)

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/15/9572/gfs_0_192atd1.png 

UserPostedImage
Leysdown, north Kent
+3
dagspot
08 June 2023 20:01:45
lots overdid it temps wise even this week. Was previously programmed 21-24dc and we barely scraped 19dc with a nip on an easterly brisk breeze. 30dc over weekend ambitious and I was surprised to see Amber warnings
Neilston 600ft ASL
ozone_aurora
08 June 2023 20:26:09

Saved for posterity - spot the 1025hPa isobar!
(The technical explanation is that the heat over land is lowering pressure fractionally, it just happens to cross the 1025hPa mark and hence you get that lovely UK-shaped outline!)

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/15/9572/gfs_0_192atd1.png 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Yes, that is our little heat low, not as pronounced as Iberian heat low or especially Middle Eastern heat low, but still a heat low, one of many different types of depressions. 🙂
White Meadows
08 June 2023 22:07:54
A lot of hyperbole in the media at the moment. It seems Met office has reduced the temps criteria for Amber warnings, almost media agency style to grab headlines. It used to take 35 degrees C to trigger Ambers. Now it seems less than 30 is enough. 
picturesareme
09 June 2023 01:52:41
So met going for 27C today here. Now going that pretty much every day for the past fortnight had been at least 2C warmer I wouldn't be surprised for a 30C here 😜 
Bolty
09 June 2023 02:38:29
Every day this week the Met Office have added a degree to this weekend's forecast. It was 25°C at the beginning of the week for Saturday, now its been increased to 28°C. I usually also find they tend to be undercooked by a degree or two, so maybe an off-chance of 30°C in Manchester?
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
Caz
  • Caz
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09 June 2023 04:54:31

Every day this week the Met Office have added a degree to this weekend's forecast. It was 25°C at the beginning of the week for Saturday, now it’s been increased to 28°C. I usually also find they tend to be undercooked by a degree or two, so maybe an off-chance of 30°C in Manchester?

Originally Posted by: Bolty 

Met Office temp has increased the same for us. They now have 30c here for Saturday. 
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Jiries
09 June 2023 04:56:32

Every day this week the Met Office have added a degree to this weekend's forecast. It was 25°C at the beginning of the week for Saturday, now its been increased to 28°C. I usually also find they tend to be undercooked by a degree or two, so maybe an off-chance of 30°C in Manchester?

Originally Posted by: Bolty 



Yes same here 28C tomorrow but today another problem is again cloudy and still gale force winds so lost chance to be warm day already. Need proper sunrise tomorrow to get to 28C or 30C since some charts shown 30C spots.
Ally Pally Snowman
09 June 2023 06:19:35
3am UKV has at least 31c every day Saturday to Tuesday.  Tuesday being the 13th June the only day ever in Summer not to reach 30c .

Arpege has 29c Saturday , 28c Sunday,  30c Monday 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
LeedsLad123
09 June 2023 06:32:39

3am UKV has at least 31c every day Saturday to Tuesday.  Tuesday being the 13th June the only day ever in Summer not to reach 30c .

Arpege has 29c Saturday , 28c Sunday,  30c Monday 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Yes UKV shows 30/31C here. Probably the hottest run yet. 
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
09 June 2023 06:43:01

Dessicating? Dew points don't seem that low, all things considered - not like we saw last year in July, for example, which really was dessicating.

I'm intrigued as to how Saturday is going to play out. GFS is rock solid on masses of cloud (enough to produce a UV index of 2 at 1PM down here, for example), with a steady breeze off the sea - and 25C as a result. ECM is even more absurd, showing 27C with similar conditions.

The Met Office automated forecast is for clear blue skies, a similar steady breeze and a high of only 21C.

It's unusual to see such disparities at only a day and a half out... and to not know whether it'll be a warmer version of what we have now, or an overcast, muggy, gloomy day.

Further inland, e.g. Reading, it's the other way round: the Met Office forecast is 28C, the GFS offers 24C. I really can't imagine a scenario where in a cloudy setup a coastal area with an onshore breeze would be warmer than one well inland, but we'll see, we'll see...

Originally Posted by: Retron 



By desiccating I mean the way the almost constant winds from the NE force vegetation to suck up water in the soil exacerbating the drying effect. Enhanced transpiration. Combined with sunrise to sunset sunshine for the past couple of weeks means soil moisture deficits must be significant.  Follow me into my garden where the pots need watering a couple of times a day and the grass is now light brown on the shallow soil. You see what I mean?

We haven't had the Jirian gale force winds though. 
Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
+2
Ally Pally Snowman
09 June 2023 06:55:01

Yes UKV shows 30/31C here. Probably the hottest run yet. 

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 



It has 29c in the Dorset/Hampshire area today a good test on how accurate its going to be . 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
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09 June 2023 07:07:14
WX charts show warmth well established across NW Europe in week 1, additionally spreading east to displace the cool conditions in W Russia by week 2. Something a little cooler spreads down the N Sea to NE Britain in week 2 after sharing continental warmth in week 1. Rain still concentrated in S Europe in a band from S France - Balkans - SE Poland.

GFS Op - The disturbed spell forecast for the weekend, with S winds and LP drifting up from France, looks short-lived as HP returns from the Baltic to sit near N Scotland through to Mon 19th (some light NE-lies down the N Sea). Then something of a collapse with shallow LP moving up from the south for England; after that HP establishes over Norway Sun 25th with continental LP continuing to affect S England.

ECM - similar to GFS

GEFS - warm/hot to Thu 15th after which temps close to or a little above norm; some rain around Mon 12th (but not in the NE) then very little in S & E until it shows up there in some ens members after Mon 19th. More of a showery pattern throughout for N & W.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
Brian Gaze
09 June 2023 07:10:42
Looks like I've time my return to the UK almost perfectly. 😀That makes a change! 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
09 June 2023 07:43:18
Signs of major heat over Iberia in about 9 days time. Both GFS and ECM have it but then show it dissipating in different directions, neither of them UK bound. It will be interesting to see how the models handle this in days to come. It often takes a few stages for major heat to advect to the continent from Iberia, to Southern France, to Northern France and then over the Channel. It can fail at any of these stages and then reload or in worst cases never return. 

Of course at this time of the year, the near continent has strong enough sunshine to generate its own heat although never as extreme as the Iberian version. 

 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Rob K
09 June 2023 10:38:12
Looking like a pretty good spell of summer weather on the way. This weekend's unsettled interlude doesn't look like breaking down the summery conditions, instead we could be looking at a return to something a bit more similar to the last few days but warmer - however with an easterly flow probably still keeping things cool and cloudy down the east coast.

App showing wall to wall sunshine for Hampshire from Tuesday after a showery Monday, with temps gradually declining from high 20s to mid 20s by next weekend.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
picturesareme
09 June 2023 12:41:02

Looking like a pretty good spell of summer weather on the way. This weekend's unsettled interlude doesn't look like breaking down the summery conditions, instead we could be looking at a return to something a bit more similar to the last few days but warmer - however with an easterly flow probably still keeping things cool and cloudy down the east coast.

App showing wall to wall sunshine for Hampshire from Tuesday after a showery Monday, with temps gradually declining from high 20s to mid 20s by next weekend.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



You mean a continuation of the good spell of summer weather Hampshire has been enjoying for the past couple of weeks? It's been almost wall to wall sunshine that entire time.
Jiries
09 June 2023 13:35:06

Looking like a pretty good spell of summer weather on the way. This weekend's unsettled interlude doesn't look like breaking down the summery conditions, instead we could be looking at a return to something a bit more similar to the last few days but warmer - however with an easterly flow probably still keeping things cool and cloudy down the east coast.

App showing wall to wall sunshine for Hampshire from Tuesday after a showery Monday, with temps gradually declining from high 20s to mid 20s by next weekend.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



First time the apps for my area also full sunshine daily next week and temperatures 25-26C so prefer that set-up than recently that often bring weeks of cool cloudy days then a few hours heat spike rubbish follow by cool cloudy nonsense..  Typical 90's summer set-up with lot of sunshine and warm summery temperatures.   With the HP next week should be good for star gazers and seeing twilight all the way at clear night skies toward summer longest day.
Russwirral
09 June 2023 13:59:13
Almost identical to how the thundery spell of 2020 came about, was initially forecast as being a thundery friday, maybe a thundery Saturday too, ended up being a thunder 6 or 7 days.

I can see the same thing shaping up.  So long as we are tapping into the CAPE and heat of the continent, i can see the charts squeezing a few more days out of this thundery spell.  Im amazed its so similar for timing and development.

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
09 June 2023 14:38:13

Almost identical to how the thundery spell of 2020 came about, was initially forecast as being a thundery friday, maybe a thundery Saturday too, ended up being a thunder 6 or 7 days.

I can see the same thing shaping up.  So long as we are tapping into the CAPE and heat of the continent, i can see the charts squeezing a few more days out of this thundery spell.  Im amazed its so similar for timing and development.

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 



It would be and very welcome too (IMBY). 
Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft

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