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chelseagirl
15 June 2023 18:31:12

I've been lugging watering cans around on a daily basis, the water butt long since having been exhausted. The only good thing is that at least I'm unmetered (as Southern Water couldn't find the stopcock after several tries), so it doesn't cost any more...

It'd be nice to get some natural watering going on, though, and I'm hopeful this weekend or early next week might see a little relief. Only a little, though, as it doesn't look like a switch to a wetter pattern is happening... just a brief blip as the highs relocate.
 

Originally Posted by: Retron 



we had a right shock last September. Never ever had a water meter and moved into a property with one. Still paying for it now. 😳
The Fenlands of Cambridgeshire
+1
Jiries
15 June 2023 19:07:10

Yes a bit of (needed) rainfall briefly then followed by more very warm or potentially hot weather. It’s not an isolated run rather a strongly suggested trend.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Not been viewing the charts for ages but did now to see the pressure pattern for far SW Scotland that we will be going on 21st to 24th and it look good mostly from 22-24th, 21st a bit iffy due to LP brushing by but should be good later on for a drive to highlands   Look good for later end of June and hope we get a 1995 or 1983 summer type. 
tierradelfuego
15 June 2023 19:26:29

Well, my water butts are overflowing....250 gallons in each, and much of it being rain water collected from just the weekend's rain.
I fully expect them to continue to overflow next week.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



Blimey, they must be pretty professional waterbutts, where did you get water butts at over 1100 litres in size? 250 litres I would get for sure, but then one of those would be empty by now from the weekend with any decent watering to do.
Bucklebury
West Berkshire Downs AONB
135m ASL

VP2 with daytime FARS
Rainfall collector separated at ground level
Anemometer separated above roof level
WeatherLink Live (Byles Green Weather)
moomin75
15 June 2023 21:26:27

Blimey, they must be pretty professional waterbutts, where did you get water butts at over 1100 litres in size? 250 litres I would get for sure, but then one of those would be empty by now from the weekend with any decent watering to do.

Originally Posted by: tierradelfuego 



They are pretty enormous water butts yes. Industrial size really to water my vast acres 😂😂
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
16 June 2023 07:09:23
Different models and even different models on successive days producing uncertain forecasts as to the amount of rain over the weekend and where. MetO fancies a cluster of showers moving along the south coast tomorrow (Sat) and rather more in NI & SW Scotland; on Sun a group of showers moving N across Kent and E Anglia while the Birmingham area gets a downpour moving to NE England and by Mon to E Scotland; on Tue an area of rain in SE England with a good scattering of storms elsewhere. But other models are available - Arpege and Meteo Group suggest more widespread rain for south central England on Sun which develops into that Birmingham downpour later on.

For the regular roundup: WX temps warm to hot in NW Europe and cool in NW Russia in both weeks, the warmth in week 1 encompassing N Scotland and Scandinavia but retreating S-wards from these areas in week 2. Rain well distributed across Europe incl Britain in week 1; more localised in week 2 with separate patches in Scotland, S Germany, N Greece and Russia.

GFS Op - LP now off SW Ireland moving N to Iceland by Wed 21st while pressure over Europe shows little variation from 1015mb anywhere. The Azores HP pushes into S Britain/ N Europe by Sat 24th but a portion detaches and becomes a N-S ridge Sweden - Poland while LP 990mb is situated in the Hebrides Tue 27th. By Sun 2nd the Azores HP is back into Britain while pressure is lower in SE Europe.

ECM - similar to GFS but the ridge of HP on the 24th is a broader area taking in most of Europe incl SE England.

GEFS - temps continuing a couple of degrees above norm with good ens agreement to Sat 24th after which the mean continues warm but a considerable scatter of ens members. Rain quite heavy either side of Tue 20th (amounts least in SW), bits and pieces thereafter in the S, rather more in the N/NW
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
Rob K
16 June 2023 07:16:06

Well, my water butts are overflowing....250 gallons in each, and much of it being rain water collected from just the weekend's rain.
I fully expect them to continue to overflow next week.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Never mind the Baltic Pipeline, we need a new MoominPipe infrastructure project to solve water shortages!

Still not much clarity on what will happen around the end of the month. A warm-up looks likely around next weekend but could be anything from a brief plume and a soaking to an extended hot spell.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
fairweather
16 June 2023 07:27:10

I've been lugging watering cans around on a daily basis, the water butt long since having been exhausted. The only good thing is that at least I'm unmetered (as Southern Water couldn't find the stopcock after several tries), so it doesn't cost any more...

It'd be nice to get some natural watering going on, though, and I'm hopeful this weekend or early next week might see a little relief. Only a little, though, as it doesn't look like a switch to a wetter pattern is happening... just a brief blip as the highs relocate.
 

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Out of interest what do you pay for your unmetered water supply? We have a fairy large garden and like you, water butts are empty and are lugging watering cans around all evening most summers. Sometimes use the hose pipe but not often. There are two of us and our metered supply is £12 p.m.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
16 June 2023 08:09:31

Different models and even different models on successive days producing uncertain forecasts as to the amount of rain over the weekend and where.

Originally Posted by: DEW 



Indeed. I notice that the ECM Op run produces only small amounts of rain along the south coast and in most of the south east now and downgrades the amounts over the UK in general. Just one run though ....
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
16 June 2023 08:12:30
GFS in general shows heat building over mainland Europe in the next 2 weeks with brief plumes moving north. One of those is hitting the UK later in the Op run but I'd say the precise detail of where and when exactly they hit more northern parts is difficult to nail this far in advance. GFS Op shows a pretty major heatwave for Germany later on. 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Joe Bloggs
16 June 2023 10:25:41
The charts have gone a bit Moominy today after yesterday’s prolonged settled outlook.

More runs needed. 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
LeedsLad123
16 June 2023 10:42:59
Looks like a more traditional NW/SE split on offer today, which I don’t mind personally being east of the Pennines. 
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Chunky Pea
16 June 2023 11:11:56

Blimey, they must be pretty professional waterbutts, where did you get water butts at over 1100 litres in size? 250 litres I would get for sure, but then one of those would be empty by now from the weekend with any decent watering to do.

Originally Posted by: tierradelfuego 



I obviously live a very sheltered life but I have no idea what a 'waterbutt' is. The name makes me laugh though. How could anyone say it in a sentence and still keep a straight face?
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
+1
moomin75
16 June 2023 11:20:39

I obviously live a very sheltered life but I have no idea what a 'waterbutt' is. The name makes me laugh though. How could anyone say it in a sentence and still keep a straight face?

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


😂😂 It's just a very large container for water, not some bizarre medical condition 😂
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
+1
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
16 June 2023 11:28:18

I obviously live a very sheltered life but I have no idea what a 'waterbutt' is. The name makes me laugh though. How could anyone say it in a sentence and still keep a straight face?

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 



Really? Surely you’ve heard of the term? But of course where you live is renowned for soft days and normally there is no need for storing water for times of drought.
Many people in England and indeed around the world have a water butt or barrel/tank to store water collected from a suitable roof. You could use the term ‘cistern’ but then that has a flushing connotation you might find humorous too.
They are something though that I believe we should all be looking at nowadays.
Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
+3
Taylor1740
16 June 2023 13:57:19
GFS quite keen on a much more unsettled and cooler spell of weather, however I will believe it when I see it.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Rob K
16 June 2023 19:36:12

GFS quite keen on a much more unsettled and cooler spell of weather, however I will believe it when I see it.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 


Still some very hot runs in the GEFS though.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Nick Gilly
16 June 2023 19:44:22
12Z GFS has an ex-tropical storm interacting with the jet stream, firing it up, and changing the pattern to zonal from the 28th onwards. I hope  it's wrong...
moomin75
16 June 2023 20:02:32

12Z GFS has an ex-tropical storm interacting with the jet stream, firing it up, and changing the pattern to zonal from the 28th onwards. I hope  it's wrong...

Originally Posted by: Nick Gilly 


I think there are growing signs across all models that we are approaching a much more unsettled spell as we head towards the end of June.
Once it sets in, it will be hard to shift, and all these concerns about lack of rainfall will soon be a thing of the past.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Rob K
16 June 2023 22:03:50
Always a worrying sign when you look at the forum and see “last post: Moomin” in the model thread. 😅

hopefully it’s just a wobble. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Zubzero
16 June 2023 22:39:15

Always a worrying sign when you look at the forum and see “last post: Moomin” in the model thread. 😅

hopefully it’s just a wobble. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



Iv,e got a stockpile of unused arks from Doomins previous preaching of biblical flooding, you are more then welcome to one. 😜🌧🌪🌩
moomin75
17 June 2023 06:57:09

Iv,e got a stockpile of unused arks from Doomins previous preaching of biblical flooding, you are more then welcome to one. 😜🌧🌪🌩

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 


May need one tomorrow and Monday. 😂
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
17 June 2023 07:02:02
WX temp summaries show warm or very warm weather continuing for the next two weeks all the way across Europe, with S Britain u=included in this. On the cool side in week 2 in N Scotland and N Scandinavia, and throughout in N Russia. Dry in week 1 for Sweden across to Russia, some rain in most other places including Britain; in week 2 the dry area is from the N Sea to the Baltic, with the rest of Europe damp rather than really wet; some local wet spots including English Channel, NW Scotland and Romania. 

GFS Op - LP off W Ireland moving N to Iceland by Wed 21st, with slack pressure and little circulation over most of Europe. Pressure then rising in the form of a ridge from Azores - Britain - Norway until Sun 25th when somewhat dented by LP approaching NW Ireland 995 mb. After that the synoptics revert to the common summer pattern of LP near Iceland with W-lies for Scotland, while S England is under the influence of shallow heat LPs drifting around the near continent. 

ECM - similar to GFS but after Sun 25th pressure remains high over S England and the near continent.

GEFS - continuing warm a degree or two above norm) with good ens agreement to Sun 25th; then an increasing scramble with the mean of ens runs near norm but e.g. Sat 1st op is 8C above norm and control 5C below in the SE (N & W have the same features but less extreme). Some briefly heavy rain in the next 2 or 3 days quite widely, then occasionally predicted on a randomly-looking basis in the S, but more frequent on many days in the NW. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
Ally Pally Snowman
17 June 2023 07:06:28
Definitely a flatter pattern emerging for the end of June.  A classic NW - SE split,  could get quite hot in the SE but a little disappointing compared to what was showing a couple of days ago. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Tim A
17 June 2023 08:20:56

Definitely a flatter pattern emerging for the end of June.  A classic NW - SE split,  could get quite hot in the SE but a little disappointing compared to what was showing a couple of days ago. 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Yes sounds about right. Hard to pin down the details for the middle of the country, probably some nice weather and some disappointing days but small tweaks either way could change things for good or bad.
Looks warm anyway which is the main thing I am bothered about at this time of year. 
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
David M Porter
17 June 2023 08:51:51

I think there are growing signs across all models that we are approaching a much more unsettled spell as we head towards the end of June.
Once it sets in, it will be hard to shift, and all these concerns about lack of rainfall will soon be a thing of the past.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



Hmmm, jumping the gun a bit there methinks, Kieren.

We don't know how long any upcoming unsettled spell will last exactly, but the unsettled spells of weather we had here during the spring didn't seem to last that long before the weather turned drier again. I think it would be better to say "may be hard to shift" as opposed to "will be hard to shift." 🙂
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022

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