theweatheroutlook

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Brian Gaze
12 June 2023 17:12:16
Personally I much prefer dry and hot weather! However, it looks like the next few weeks could bring some very exciting summer weather in many people's eyes.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
HighPressureGloom
12 June 2023 17:14:59

Hmm. Interesting development on the GFS 12Z which makes a lot less of the low out west and in fact after trying to get in over the UK is forced back west into the Atlantic, setting up a plume type scenario from the south.
One to watch, but any relaxation of the heat may be very shortlived. 

UKMO 12z is broadly similar, the low approaches from the west, fills, then backs west again, drawing up a very warm air mass.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


 
At the risk of sounding hyperbolic that 12z GFS op would produce the best June since 76 around these parts. 
Ally Pally Snowman
12 June 2023 19:15:08

Hmm. Interesting development on the GFS 12Z which makes a lot less of the low out west and in fact after trying to get in over the UK is forced back west into the Atlantic, setting up a plume type scenario from the south.
One to watch, but any relaxation of the heat may be very shortlived. 

UKMO 12z is broadly similar, the low approaches from the west, fills, then backs west again, drawing up a very warm air mass.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



ECM 12z has a similar theme with low pressure backing west allowing high pressure to build in from the east.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
12 June 2023 19:16:57
Squeaky bum time for the 13th June anomaly .
Arpege and Arome have 29c max for tmrw and UKV has 30/31c . Going to be close.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
13 June 2023 07:05:21
In week 1, WX temp charts show warm or very warm across Europe up to N Scotland and the Gulf of Bothnia, just a slight anomaly in the Danube basin where it is cooler. In week 2, fresher weather moves down from the north, with Scotland and N Scandinavia looking more 'normal', but the heat builds in the south i.e. the south of France and closing up the anomaly around the Danube. Rain in week 1 for Britain plus the persistent band through S France to the Balkans; in week 2 the rain over S France moves N to the Channel (plus separate spots in the NW of Britain persisting), the Balkans continue as before, but a large new wet area over Finland and W Russia.

GFS  Op - for the rest of this week, pressure quite high in a broad but rather diffuse band from Scandinavia to Britain. By Sun 18th a flabby LP 1005mb is off SW Ireland drifting NE to Faeroes Wed 21st leaving Britain in a weak S-ly flow (there's minimal circulation with pressure everywhere from mid-Atlantic to Russia remarkably within a few mb of 1015mb). New HP arising 1025mb Rockall Fri 23rd becomes a ridge S to link with Azores and N-lies for a day or two over Britain and W Europe before it 'topples' and lies along the Channel 1025mb Thu 29th. At this time there are more active LPs near Greenland and NW Russia.

ECM - after Wed 21st pressure rises from the SW and by Fri 23rd 1025mb forecast for S Britain with new LP 1005mb St Kilda - not a dramatic pressure gradient but by no means as uniform as GFS

GEFS - a little cooler from Fri 15th but still mostly a couple of degrees above norm throughout. Less rain in ens members than yesterday but still significant chances around Mon 19th (everywhere, persisting in N esp NW) & Mon 26th (reviving in the S esp SW). 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
ballamar
13 June 2023 08:14:29
UKMO looks hot and potentially stormy beginning next week with a chance of some hefty imports / homegrown storms. 
Ally Pally Snowman
13 June 2023 09:42:28
ECM ensembles look very warm if not hot for the next couple of weeks. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhrens.aspx 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
moomin75
13 June 2023 10:16:27

ECM ensembles look very warm if not hot for the next couple of weeks. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhrens.aspx 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


We'd better hope that the 6z GFS doesnt verify and its an outlier, because if it's near the mark, we are looking at potentially severe flooding from Sunday night onwards into Monday.
Looks absolutely horrendous, and shades of 2007.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
13 June 2023 10:39:59

We'd better hope that the 6z GFS doesnt verify and its an outlier, because if it's near the mark, we are looking at potentially severe flooding from Sunday night onwards into Monday.
Looks absolutely horrendous, and shades of 2007.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



A touch of hyperbole perhaps Moom's. Definitely a soaking for the West. High pressure soon builds in though. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
moomin75
13 June 2023 10:42:05

A touch of hyperbole perhaps Moom's. Definitely a soaking for the West. High pressure soon builds in though. 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Not really no, next Monday looks horrendous, but that's 6 days away, and it won't happen like that I'm sure. But if it did, that is a drenching and then some!
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
13 June 2023 10:59:04

Not really no, next Monday looks horrendous, but that's 6 days away, and it won't happen like that I'm sure. But if it did, that is a drenching and then some!

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



Rain totals look minimal in the east . Wales gets Drenched.  GFS does love a low pressure though. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Retron
13 June 2023 12:19:30

A touch of hyperbole perhaps Moom's. Definitely a soaking for the West. High pressure soon builds in though. 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Yup, more "doomin" than "Moomin"!

A whopping 3mm of rain over the next 10 days here, including from that so-called "horrendous" spell of weather.

In reality I wouldn't be surprised if that's a big fat zero come the time.

We desperately need rain down here, so I'm hoping the next run shows an upgrade in the rain amounts! 😀
Leysdown, north Kent
+1
White Meadows
13 June 2023 12:27:25
A hot or potentially very hot spell looking possible to end this month into July. Ensembles paint a dry picture overall with nighttime temps rising significantly at the end. ECM pressure pattern in general agreement to the end of its run. 
 
Hungry Tiger
13 June 2023 13:18:53

A hot or potentially very hot spell looking possible to end this month into July. Ensembles paint a dry picture overall with nighttime temps rising significantly at the end. ECM pressure pattern in general agreement to the end of its run. 
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



So that assumes 32C to 38C degrees C or therabouts.
 
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Rob K
13 June 2023 13:19:24

Yup, more "doomin" than "Moomin"!

Originally Posted by: Retron 


I'd prefer "Ploomin" 😁
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
moomin75
13 June 2023 13:57:19

I'd prefer "Ploomin" 😁

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


It's normally Gloomin, but I'll take anything.
I'm not suggesting the GFS rain-fest is likely, and the general trend appears to be hot and thundery, which would be just fine with me! 
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
moomin75
13 June 2023 16:59:49
Pretty consistent signal now from GFS for an unsettled period coming up, from about Sunday, with bouts of rain, but staying on the warm/very warm side.
Expect to see a fair amount of fireworks over the next 10 days, and a fair amount of rain too.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
13 June 2023 17:45:10

Pretty consistent signal now from GFS for an unsettled period coming up, from about Sunday, with bouts of rain, but staying on the warm/very warm side.
Expect to see a fair amount of fireworks over the next 10 days, and a fair amount of rain too.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



Supported by BBC/Meteo Group for Sunday onwards
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
13 June 2023 18:57:31
Stunning ECM 12z tonight.  Decent thundery plume late weekend then the Azores high builds in strongly day 9. Hot again day 10.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Jiries
14 June 2023 05:07:28

Stunning ECM 12z tonight.  Decent thundery plume late weekend then the Azores high builds in strongly day 9. Hot again day 10.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Sound good for Scotland trip 21st to 24th under HP.   If this come out like that then this month June far far much better despite poor start opening of the month than last year June due to daily cloud early forming, rubbish heat spike followed by raw cold rain next day.   Scotland had been doing well so good for our trip there. 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
14 June 2023 07:03:57
WX temp charts for week 1 show, much as yesterday, a bulge of very warm air pushed north to Scotland and to the northern end of the Gulf of Bothnia, but still cool in NW Russia. The warmth re-distributes in week 2, being replaced by cooler weather into Scotland and N Scandinavia while Russia warms up. In week 1, rain well spread across Europe except for Spain and N Scandinavia; in week 2 the major wet area is all the way through the Baltic, though a small patch sticks over NW Scotland.

GFS Op - broad area of HP from Scandinavia to Scotland slowly subsiding as by Sun 18th LP 1010mb approaches W Ireland bringing a S-ly flow plus possible thundery LP from France. The LP drifts slowly NE to Orkney by Wed 21st. For the following week the Azores HP just about reaches S England while weak areas of LP move across or close to Scotland from the SW. These areas of LP accumulate in the Baltic (995mb Estonia Tue 27th) with light N-lies for Britain, becoming stronger Fri 30th as new HP sets up W of Scotland. 

ECM - like GFS until 21st but then the LP hangs around covering most of Britain on Thu 21st, and then the Azores HP pushes in more strongly reaching Scotland Sat 24th


GEFS - less agreement between ens members than yesterday. For the S, always on the warm side, probably more so around Mon 19th and less certainly (mainly extreme op & control runs in the SE) around Mon 26th; rain most likely 19th but continuing intermittently thereafter. For Scotland, better agreement on temps a degree or two above norm throughout, rainfall pattern similar to the S, but heavier esp in W. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
Ally Pally Snowman
14 June 2023 08:37:57
Another lovely ECM this morning staying in the mid to high 20s all the way through.  Never particularly unsettled in the SE and EA. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
14 June 2023 09:13:02
GFS brings the 0C isotherm back across the UK by the end of the run but it is on the cooler side of the pack. Looking like a brief wet spell around Sunday/Monday as we catch the edge of a plume - some quite hot air pushing north into Central Europe next week but unlikely to affect us much.

Not much sign of anything properly hot reaching us although a few teasing runs on the GEFS do get into the high teens at 850mb level late on.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
moomin75
14 June 2023 10:08:58
Still looks to me like a 2007-style flood is on the cards in many parts of Western and Central UK on Sunday. 
Looks utterly horrendous in western areas, and could be some newsworthy conditions over the weekend.
GFS has not backed away from this over 4 or 5 consecutive runs. 
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Tim A
14 June 2023 12:00:25
I would be very surprised if GFS was right for Sunday,  has 13c temps at 3pm here compared to 25c on ECM.    The new GFS is awful.
But if we get some rain at the weekend/Monday it will be a good thing, can't really see anything too concerning.  Rain moving NE Sunday afternoon/evening/overnight looks most likely. 
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 

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