theweatheroutlook

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ballamar
17 June 2023 08:56:28

Hmmm, jumping the gun a bit there methinks, Kieren.

We don't know how long any upcoming unsettled spell will last exactly, but the unsettled spells of weather we had here during the spring didn't seem to last that long before the weather turned drier again. I think it would be better to say "may be hard to shift" as opposed to "will be hard to shift." 🙂

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


it’s just an I told you so post! If anything zonality in summer is very easy to stop. Looking forward to much needed rain tomorrow then who knows but more hot dry weather is just as likely
Spring Sun Winter Dread
17 June 2023 11:55:37
As someone who lives upstairs but with an outside garden, having a water butt has been an absolute game changer in the garden this year... An end to traipsing up and down the stairs with a watering can (although if we don't get a decent top up in the next few days I could be back to it soon).
I have had to both seal it and clean the water though meaning I have had to buy "butt plugs" and "butt cleaners".
And ask where they are in shops without giggling .
Haven't really succeeded on that 
+1
Crepuscular Ray
17 June 2023 13:24:09

As someone who lives upstairs but with an outside garden, having a water butt has been an absolute game changer in the garden this year... An end to traipsing up and down the stairs with a watering can (although if we don't get a decent top up in the next few days I could be back to it soon).
I have had to both seal it and clean the water though meaning I have had to buy "butt plugs" and "butt cleaners".
And ask where they are in shops without giggling .
Haven't really succeeded on that 

Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread 



😂😂

Scottish butts have been bone dry for a few weeks now. 4 weeks since we had measurable rain.
April had about 60% of normal rainfall and May 50%
We have numerous wildfires and a lot of the country is in a high risk
We are hoping that Sunday/Monday fills our butts and dampens the flames
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
17 June 2023 13:32:36
First 39C appearing in a GFS ensemble member. P19 in todays 06z, on Thursday 29th.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&charthour=300&chartname=2mtmpmax&chartregion=uk&p=19&charttag=2m%20max%20temp 

A few years ago such a sight would have been met with shocked emojis all round. Now just park for the course. 
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
17 June 2023 13:33:10
First 39C appearing in a GFS ensemble member. P19 in todays 06z, on Thursday 29th.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&charthour=270&chartname=2mtmpmax&chartregion=uk&p=19&charttag=2m%20max%20temp 

A few years ago such a sight would have been met with shocked emojis all round. Now just park for the course. 
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
17 June 2023 13:33:48
First 39C appearing in a GFS ensemble member. P19 in todays 06z, on Thursday 29th.

A few years ago such a sight would have been met with shocked emojis all round. Now just park for the course. 
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
17 June 2023 17:26:29
High pressure fighting back on the 12s. GFS has a brutal French ans Spanish heatwave which southern England taps into with 30c + on a few days. Spain gets into the high 40s.🥵🥵🥵
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Retron
17 June 2023 17:32:45

High pressure fighting back on the 12s. GFS has a brutal French heatwave which southern England taps into with 30c + on a few days.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Yes, I've a bit of a reverse Moomin feeling about all this... that bubble of >20C 850s is looming large. There's also an ominous looking low to the west of Iberia, the classic "heat pump" scenario.

The wetter weather we'll enjoy this week is all part of it, of course. At the moment we're to the north of the jet, as we have been for some weeks now. That's very unusual at this time of year (the textbooks say the jet should be between Iceland and Scotland). Note that even on the cold side of the jet, with persistent NE'lies, we're still far above average this month... and we've set several daily CET records, in fact.

The jet is now working its way north, meaning the belt of rain which has lain to our south over the past few weeks is making its way north. The models show the jet assuming its textbook position by the end of the month.

That opens the gates to plumes and the rest, meaning we'll need a bit of luck if we're to avoid widespread spells of 30C+ again this year. I don't expect the jet will retreat southwards again any time soon!

 
Leysdown, north Kent
+1
Zubzero
17 June 2023 17:38:41

May need one tomorrow and Monday. 😂

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



Ill believe it when I see it amounts are getting less and less with each passing run imby.

GEFS show about 8-10 mm 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=305&y=108&run=12&runpara=0&type=10&ext=0 Â 
doctormog
17 June 2023 18:08:17

Ill believe it when I see it amounts are getting less and less with each passing run imby.

GEFS show about 8-10 mm 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=305&y=108&run=12&runpara=0&type=10&ext=0 Â 

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 



In contrast the suite shows a very large amount of rain here in a very short period of time (on very dry ground). Not great.

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=&y=&run=12&lat=57.2&lon=-2.25&runpara=0&type=10&ext=0 Â 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Ally Pally Snowman
17 June 2023 18:16:41
100f on the GFS 12z Control tonight.  As Retron says is there something brewing. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
Zubzero
17 June 2023 18:51:12

100f on the GFS 12z Control tonight.  As Retron says is there something brewing. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Massive outlier, overall the GEFS show it turning a bit cooler and unsettled. 
Jiries
17 June 2023 20:22:13

First 39C appearing in a GFS ensemble member. P19 in todays 06z, on Thursday 29th.

A few years ago such a sight would have been met with shocked emojis all round. Now just park for the course. 

Originally Posted by: TimS 



I will be concern if the 39C kept showing up which mean a repeat of last year that endured prolonged cloudy period before the heat spike then followed by 2 weeks of cloudy weather.  I prefer what i saw last year August 32-34C typical UK heatwave that brought more sunny days. 
Rob K
17 June 2023 21:14:14
The 12Z mean is quite a bit lower than the 6Z mean on the GEFS, but the op run and especially the control run are hotter. I think we are going to start seeing some proper scorchers on the GFS over the coming week, like we did a couple of weeks later than this last year.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
ballamar
18 June 2023 05:51:59
The endless weeks of zonality are yet to show up as predicted by one member. Looks hot and settled for the foreseeable on GFS op run
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
18 June 2023 06:33:30

The endless weeks of zonality are yet to show up as predicted by one member. Looks hot and settled for the foreseeable on GFS op run

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



Perhaps misleading in the short term? MetO models heavy rain in stages (i) today starting in the SE this afternoon, becoming more extensive and running N to give Scotland a soaking overnight before fading out over the Northern Isles tomorrow morning (ii) another appearing in the SW Tuesday morning and running north up the spine of England to lie over NE Scotland by midnight (iii) an area of heavy rain into SW Ireland early on Friday.   

But it looks like hot and settled for central southern England which is perpetually on the edge of any significant rain.😒and dry, even hot, later on for the rest of Britain
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
18 June 2023 07:07:03
WX summaries for week 1 show very warm temps across Europe extending N to Scotland and the Gulf of Bothnia with cool weather no nearer than W Russia. In week 2 there is a clash as the cooler weather moves W-wards down to the Baltic but France and Spain become dramatically hot with some of this spilling over into S England though fading out up to N Scotland. In week 1 rain for France- Danube Basin - Black Sea and some for Britain; in week 2 the situation inverts with rain for Scandinavia and Russia, also for Greece, sandwiching a dry area across N Europe incl Britain.

GFS Op - current LP off Ireland moving N and filling near Iceland Wed 21st. Then HP moves up from the Azores to Britain where a succession of HP cells cover the country to Sun 2nd (notably 1030mb Scotland Fri 30th) while pressure remains relatively low over continental Europe, and definitely low around the White Sea. Then on Mon 3rd a shallow trough crosses Britain from the west.

ECM - similar to GFS though placing the developing HP further to the SW so more of a W-ly influence esp for Scotland

GEFS - mean temps remain a couple of degrees above norm for the next fortnight albeit nearer norm in Scotland later on, with moderately good ens agreement, though the op & control runs keep going off to ridiculously hot in the S (Wed 28th and again Sun 2nd). Some locally intense rain in the next 2 or 3 days then mostly dry in S England, more ens members show some rain in the N and in Scotland. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2
Ally Pally Snowman
18 June 2023 07:12:40
Looks like heatwave conditions returning for most of England by next Saturday going by this morning's runs.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
18 June 2023 07:33:46

Perhaps misleading in the short term? MetO models heavy rain in stages (i) today starting in the SE this afternoon, becoming more extensive and running N to give Scotland a soaking overnight before fading out over the Northern Isles tomorrow morning (ii) another appearing in the SW Tuesday morning and running north up the spine of England to lie over NE Scotland by midnight (iii) an area of heavy rain into SW Ireland early on Friday.   

But it looks like hot and settled for central southern England which is perpetually on the edge of any significant rain.😒and dry, even hot, later on for the rest of Britain

Originally Posted by: DEW 



An observation easy to make and of course the million dollar question why does it happen and why do the forecasts appear to forget it? It occurs so often nowadays it’s almost predictable. The two ‘splits’ east and west with a dryish middle are common in recent dry spells.
Yet another weather warning BBC and Met O again for me beginning at midday which I'm almost ignoring and hoping to get a laundry batch dry today outside. I live in hope that some French thundery immigrants will make the crossing unhindered. I wouldn't put money on it happening though.
 
Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
Rob K
18 June 2023 08:05:19
00Z GFS is another hot one although again it is right at the top of the GEFS pack. 

ECM also rather warm. 

iPhone app suggests 1mm of rain here in the next 24 hours. Yesterday’s shower was over by the time I’d gathered all my power tools and brought them indoors. 

 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Zubzero
18 June 2023 08:17:03

00Z GFS is another hot one although again it is right at the top of the GEFS pack. 

ECM also rather warm. 

iPhone app suggests 1mm of rain here in the next 24 hours. Yesterday’s shower was over by the time I’d gathered all my power tools and brought them indoors. 

 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



Going by today's storm forecast you could have 1mm  or 100mm

https://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2023061906_202306172109_2_stormforecast.xml 

 
Rob K
18 June 2023 10:12:24

Going by today's storm forecast you could have 1mm  or 100mm

https://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2023061906_202306172109_2_stormforecast.xml 

 

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 


The storms over France look like they are heading my way but they might slip to the east. None of the models seem to have the development right at the moment.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Ally Pally Snowman
18 June 2023 11:06:33
GFS 6z is another scorchio run for the SE and EA. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Hungry Tiger
18 June 2023 13:18:06

Yes, I've a bit of a reverse Moomin feeling about all this... that bubble of >20C 850s is looming large. There's also an ominous looking low to the west of Iberia, the classic "heat pump" scenario.

The wetter weather we'll enjoy this week is all part of it, of course. At the moment we're to the north of the jet, as we have been for some weeks now. That's very unusual at this time of year (the textbooks say the jet should be between Iceland and Scotland). Note that even on the cold side of the jet, with persistent NE'lies, we're still far above average this month... and we've set several daily CET records, in fact.

The jet is now working its way north, meaning the belt of rain which has lain to our south over the past few weeks is making its way north. The models show the jet assuming its textbook position by the end of the month.

That opens the gates to plumes and the rest, meaning we'll need a bit of luck if we're to avoid widespread spells of 30C+ again this year. I don't expect the jet will retreat southwards again any time soon!

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Well done Darren for that excellent explanation there.

:-)
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Rob K
18 June 2023 13:37:15

GFS 6z is another scorchio run for the SE and EA. 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


it is but the op run is looking increasingly isolated in the ensemble pack. A big shift to a cooler and unsettled first week of July in the suite today. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
+1

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