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bledur
19 June 2023 18:15:03
Looks like the hot spell will be quite brief with slightly cooler westerlies coming in next week. Not much rain though apart from the NW
Bertwhistle
19 June 2023 19:39:35
Hot spell might well be long enough to give us a top 5 June; the GEFS 12z mean stays clearly above the LTA throughout the run. 
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Ally Pally Snowman
20 June 2023 05:28:43
Looking much more mobile and unsettled now for a bit. It did look like a significant heatwave was on the cards but the Atlantic seems to have woken from it's long slumber and blows any high pressure away quite easily.  
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Rob K
20 June 2023 07:06:04
Yes looks like the models have led us up the garden path with the prospect of a settled spell. Looks like the warm and dry weather will be over by Monday now barring a flip back. 

A few days ago I said I was expecting some seriously hot runs to start appearing over the next week but looks like that isn’t going to happen now. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
20 June 2023 07:07:44
WX temps less dramatically hot than recently but still pleasantly warm across W Europe; Scotland cooler in week 2, unseasonally warm in N Baltic, cold pool continuing over Russia. Rain in week 1 in patches from Britain to S Germany to Ukraine; in week 2 more concentrated over W Britain, Balkans and E Poland

GFS Op - current LP filling and by Fri 23rd HP has moved up from the SW to stay somewhere near Britain until Fri 30th though W Scotland subject to SW-lies on its NW edge from LP in Atlantic. This LP deepens to 990mb Ireland Sat 1st, moving to N Scotland and by Thu 6th HP over the continent yields Sw-lies for all.

ECM - after Wed 28th shows HP retreating to Atlantic and a larger LP to the N of Britain with the effect of bringing in NW-lies to Fri 30th

GEFS - warm to Mon 26th then temp close to or a little above norm with moderately good agreement between ens members. Very little rain in the SW, not much for England generally though chances later on, rain in N England and Scotland esp the NW occurring at any time.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
20 June 2023 17:02:04
Better 12s so far with high pressure building in more strongly day 6ish. GEM gets very hot.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
The Beast from the East
20 June 2023 17:26:28

Better 12s so far with high pressure building in more strongly day 6ish. GEM gets very hot.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



GFS control much cooler though, but the Azores ridge is never too far away from south. 
 
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Rob K
20 June 2023 20:37:52
ECM definitely not getting into the spirit of summer this evening.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Brian Gaze
20 June 2023 20:41:19
Looks changeable as we head into July. Azores hp having more influence at times in the south. 

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Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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ozone_aurora
20 June 2023 20:47:37

Looks changeable as we head into July. Azores hp having more influence at times in the south. 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Yes, indeed. It looks a typical UK's high summer weather; i.e, rain or showers at times, but also quite warm and pleasant at times in the S.
Matty H
20 June 2023 22:07:47

ECM definitely not getting into the spirit of summer this evening.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



Indeed. Encouraging signs again 
Rob K
21 June 2023 07:06:14
First week of July looking pretty rubbish based on this morning’s output. Hopefully high pressure can build back in afterwards as seen at the end of the GFS. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
DEW
  • DEW
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21 June 2023 07:15:45
WX temps across Europe, bar the Med, declining generally from 'reds and oranges' in week 1 to 'oranges and yellows' in week 2. Scotland and Scandinavia becoming notably cooler. Rain widespread in Europe week 1, except W France and Spain, resolving into a band from Britain to Germany to Romania in week 2.

GFS Op - pressure rising from the SW becoming centred over Belgium 1020 mb Sun 25th with W Scotland under the SW-ly influence of Atlantic LP. That LP stays there for a week to Sun 2nd occasionally pushing troughs across the rest of Britain e.g. Mon 26th and Thu 29th before getting closer 1000mb N Sea Wed 5th after which there is a reload of HP from the SW. Continental Europe has near-uniform pressure at 1015mb with LP well to the east over Russia.

ECM - similar to GFS though the trough on Thu 29th is associated with a greater deepening of the parent LP briefly to 985mb Rockall

GEFS - after early warmth to Mon 26th, mean temp continues near norm, or a little above in the S,  with a fairly wide spread of ens members; control cool around  Sat 1st and op cool around Thu 6th. Rainfall pattern in a gradient from the S where it's forecast in some ens members later on, to the NW where it's more or less continual. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
ozone_aurora
21 June 2023 08:08:42

WX temps across Europe, bar the Med, declining generally from 'reds and oranges' in week 1 to 'oranges and yellows' in week 2. Scotland and Scandinavia becoming notably cooler. Rain widespread in Europe week 1, except W France and Spain, resolving into a band from Britain to Germany to Romania in week 2.

GFS Op - pressure rising from the SW becoming centred over Belgium 1020 mb Sun 25th with W Scotland under the SW-ly influence of Atlantic LP. That LP stays there for a week to Sun 2nd occasionally pushing troughs across the rest of Britain e.g. Mon 26th and Thu 29th before getting closer 1000mb N Sea Wed 5th after which there is a reload of HP from the SW. Continental Europe has near-uniform pressure at 1015mb with LP well to the east over Russia.

ECM - similar to GFS though the trough on Thu 29th is associated with a greater deepening of the parent LP briefly to 985mb Rockall

GEFS - after early warmth to Mon 26th, mean temp continues near norm, or a little above in the S,  with a fairly wide spread of ens members; control cool around  Sat 1st and op cool around Thu 6th. Rainfall pattern in a gradient from the S where it's forecast in some ens members later on, to the NW where it's more or less continual. 

Originally Posted by: DEW 


Thanks Dew, as always.

Looks set for an early Autumn then.
 
Ally Pally Snowman
21 June 2023 08:18:47

First week of July looking pretty rubbish based on this morning’s output. Hopefully high pressure can build back in afterwards as seen at the end of the GFS. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



Yep the period 29th June to 5th July is looking like low pressure will dominate.  After that signs of pressure building.  Met office still saying hot for this period though.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Saint Snow
21 June 2023 09:34:02
Fits with the period that I'm in the Lakes

😪

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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Ally Pally Snowman
21 June 2023 14:24:48
Well the latest Met office update for for 26th June to 5th July still saying very warm to hot conditions probable.  NW unsettled elsewhere not to bad. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
21 June 2023 15:14:54

Thanks Dew, as always.

Looks set for an early Autumn then.
 

Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora 


I think you're being a bit pessimistic there. For the south of England it looks fairly dry and pleasantly warm, though Scotland may be reverting to cooler weather once the current crop of thunderstorms depart.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
21 June 2023 16:11:31
The 12z Arpege has 35c for Sunday.  33c quite widely SE and EA.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
21 June 2023 17:29:23
Yes the Arpege update is incredible.

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Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Bolty
21 June 2023 17:34:33

The 12z Arpege has 35c for Sunday.  33c quite widely SE and EA.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



There could be a new June record looming, if that comes off. The current record is 35.6°C back in 1976.

Just a shame it's only looking like a South East event though...
Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
doctormog
21 June 2023 17:44:26
I’d be impressed if that comes off as the same run shows 28°C here in Aberdeen on the day before! 

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Roger Parsons
21 June 2023 17:46:59

There could be a new June record looming, if that comes off. The current record is 35.6°C back in 1976.
Just a shame it's only looking like a South East event though...

Originally Posted by: Bolty 

I was painting my wife's 2CS and it got covered with thunderbugs!!!! 🤣
RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Zubzero
21 June 2023 18:42:43

The 12z Arpege has 35c for Sunday.  33c quite widely SE and EA.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



It's 6-10C higher then other output so id take little notice for now 
Taylor1740
21 June 2023 19:25:19

It's 6-10C higher then other output so id take little notice for now 

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 


yes not sure where it's getting 35c from but I shall ignore it for now. Looking at one of the more established models and the GEFS is now really firming up on a cooler more unsettled spell end of June into July. We shall see if it comes off though as I do feel like the GFS seems to be overly keen on dartboard lows in the Summer.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl

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