theweatheroutlook

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Brian Gaze
07 October 2023 12:31:19
This morning's GEFS 00Z looks less keen to bring colder air southwards than other recent updates. Could October be another very warm CET month? Looks a distinct possibility now.

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Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Saint Snow
07 October 2023 13:06:04
I'd like Halloween to be calm and cool, so my fog machine can work to full effect as part of my (admittedly OTT) front garden/drive decoration
 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
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Aneurin Bevan
+2
Retron
07 October 2023 17:30:35
The 12z GFS is a bit of a soaker down here, with over 2 inches of rain falling in 18 hours on Friday/Saturday - of course, unlikely to happen, especially at that range.

One of the other things is strong winds accompanying it. I remember in the wake of the Great Storm of 87, mention was made that temperatures reached 16 or 17C as the storm passed through. Similar temperatures are shown for that rain event, yet nobody would bat an eyelid these days at 17C at 1 AM in October!

 
Leysdown, north Kent
Tim A
07 October 2023 18:23:54

I'd like Halloween to be calm and cool, so my fog machine can work to full effect as part of my (admittedly OTT) front garden/drive decoration
 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


I remember one Halloween from my childhood in the 90's where it was -2c in the  evening as we finished trick or treating, can't imagine that happening these days. 
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
LeedsLad123
07 October 2023 18:27:18

I remember one Halloween from my childhood in the 90's where it was -2c in the  evening as we finished trick or treating, can't imagine that happening these days. 

Originally Posted by: Tim A 


iirc only one October in the past decade has had an air frost here. October air frosts have become quite rare. 
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Spring Sun Winter Dread
08 October 2023 10:06:03
1993, 1997, 2003, 2008, 2012 and 2018 are the only Octobers I can recall in the last 30 years where there was any proper air frost of more than a degree or 2 in my area (a relative frost hollow in SE England)

1997 and 2018 weren't cold overall because they had counteracting heatwaves in them.
Certainly still possible but needs all the parameters to come together (clear skies low humidity cold airmass etc) which is quite rare 
 
Retron
08 October 2023 10:10:54

iirc only one October in the past decade has had an air frost here. October air frosts have become quite rare. 

Originally Posted by: LeedsLad123 


You can see the stats on the Met Office climate pages. For example, my nearest station is dear old Brogdale, famous for holding the record in 2003 (38C), then again for being the coldest place in the UK in the "Beast from the East" in 2018 (-14C).

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-climate-averages/u10eu40xb 

October air frosts are now 0.49 (so one every other year - hmm...), as opposed to 0.44 in 1960-1990!

The changes are more noteworthy in November, though, going from 4.6 to 3.1 days.

I guess those Bonfire Night frosts of the 80s were actually the exception rather than the rule, even if I too remember them!
Leysdown, north Kent
+1
Matty H
08 October 2023 23:42:06
October? What about winter overall, let alone autumn. Last winter I had to turn the car’s heating on, on the app three times to defrost an icy windscreen. Other years it’s been less than that as well. We barely get a frost anymore down here in an average winter of the last decade or so, and long may it continue. Our little corner of the world has definitely changed for the better. Not all will agree. 
Yate, Nr Bristol
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+1
Quantum
09 October 2023 09:03:09
https://modeles3.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2023100900/ecmwf-0-240.png?0

ECM ends wit h a scandi high and a cold easterly. JFF obviously but its hillarious to see a cold easterly in October when we so often get poor mild easterlies in January!
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
warrenb
09 October 2023 09:21:25

The 12z GFS is a bit of a soaker down here, with over 2 inches of rain falling in 18 hours on Friday/Saturday - of course, unlikely to happen, especially at that range.

One of the other things is strong winds accompanying it. I remember in the wake of the Great Storm of 87, mention was made that temperatures reached 16 or 17C as the storm passed through. Similar temperatures are shown for that rain event, yet nobody would bat an eyelid these days at 17C at 1 AM in October!

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Yep, crazy isn't it. Remember it well, with my brother and I walking down to the fields at the bottom of the road to check the river as it had rained so much. T-Shirts being worn at around 10:30 at night, and both of us remarking on how warm and humid it felt, little did we know what was coming a couple of hours later.

These days, the heating barely gets tested before November, with some nights warm enough to sit outside until well past 9.
Tonbridge 45m 
+1
Charmhills
09 October 2023 10:03:33
Turning cooler of not somewhat colder as the week goes on and some heavy rain too for many especially, in the south.☔

The weekend could be quite a shock for many.🌬️
Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
The Beast from the East
09 October 2023 19:50:06
Another Scandi high for ECM and supported by the ens, but not sure if it will be cold easterlies or warm southerlies

 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
+1
Charmhills
09 October 2023 20:16:20

Another Scandi high for ECM and supported by the ens, but not sure if it will be cold easterlies or warm southerlies

 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



Chilly Beast.

https://services.meteored.com/img/models/ecmwf/ECMWF_240_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.png 

Well within the 546 dam and what looks like wintry showers to out south over France!!🌬️
Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Chunky Pea
09 October 2023 20:29:55

October? What about winter overall, let alone autumn. Last winter I had to turn the car’s heating on, on the app three times to defrost an icy windscreen. Other years it’s been less than that as well. We barely get a frost anymore down here in an average winter of the last decade or so, and long may it continue. Our little corner of the world has definitely changed for the better. Not all will agree. 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Last winter was very mild and bland overall, but that frosty spell in December was stand out. I'm surprised you were not affected by it. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
+1
Tim A
10 October 2023 07:51:58
Could be some frost starting over the weekend, particularly by Monday morning, maybe we will finally get a proper October air frost. 
Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
The Beast from the East
10 October 2023 10:24:46

Could be some frost starting over the weekend, particularly by Monday morning, maybe we will finally get a proper October air frost. 

Originally Posted by: Tim A 



Doubt will get one down here, dont remember the last Oct air frost in London, rarely happens in November these days!

GFS 06z gives us an early beast from the east and cold air too, disappeared from ECM op this morning but lets see if it returns later

 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
+1
picturesareme
11 October 2023 00:26:08
An interesting flip on the extended met office outlook 😉 with frost more likely than usual. 

"Temperatures will probably be around average or slightly cooler than average. Overnight frost and fog patches perhaps more likely than usual, especially in northern and eastern areas." 
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
11 October 2023 08:29:43

An interesting flip on the extended met office outlook 😉 with frost more likely than usual. 

"Temperatures will probably be around average or slightly cooler than average. Overnight frost and fog patches perhaps more likely than usual, especially in northern and eastern areas." 

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 



Recent GFS Ops runs have shown a prolonged chilly spell of weather. Other runs differ but could this become a month of 2 halves a la November 2005? 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
The Beast from the East
11 October 2023 10:24:54
perfect easterly on the GFS 06z. A month too early though. what a waste
 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
fairweather
11 October 2023 13:43:36

Turning cooler of not somewhat colder as the week goes on and some heavy rain too for many especially, in the south.☔

The weekend could be quite a shock for many.🌬️

Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


Not sure about that but would be very welcome. Dry so far today with the heavy rain moving West to East a long way north of us. Thought they said it was coming down from the NW ? Certainly could do with some with just 24mm in the last six weeks it's like a Texas dustbowl!
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Gandalf The White
11 October 2023 14:02:24

Not sure about that but would be very welcome. Dry so far today with the heavy rain moving West to East a long way north of us. Thought they said it was coming down from the NW ? Certainly could do with some with just 24mm in the last six weeks it's like a Texas dustbowl!

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



Well, there’s a yellow weather out for heavy rain for areas south of a line from North Wales across to Suffolk. We’re currently about 20 miles inside the northern limit of the warning area. The raw UKMO output from the 06z has 30-60mm quite widely.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


squish
11 October 2023 16:59:48
The 12z GFS would certainly raise a few eyebrows if a bit later in the year. Interesting pattern set up nonetheless!
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
doctormog
12 October 2023 06:50:00
Looks like a chilly weekend and wintry on the hills up here: https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gensp/run/gensprobuk-26-72.png?0  
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Gusty
12 October 2023 07:59:03
Indeed Doc. Although the jury is still very much out next weekends easterly has the potential to be really quite potent for the third week in October.

Winter has set in early this year across Svalbard (lasting snow cover arrived 17th September). Many northern and some central parts of Scandinavia have already seen a couple of episodes of snow in the past few days.

While we bask (for now) winter is arriving to the north and east...Interesting.
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



+2
Retron
12 October 2023 10:50:37
I'm keeping an eye on the winds tomorrow: GFS has a near-gale down here and has done for a few days now. (Sample output: mean 31-32, gusts 52-54 for several hours).

That's noteworthy because the trees are still in full leaf, so there may be a few blocked roads etc tomorrow.

UKV/MetO have, as usual, gradually been ramping up their speeds (now around 40 gusts, up from the low 30s the past few days) and ECM is, as usual, close behind GFS (peak of 47 gusts tomorrow).

I'm surprised there isn't a yellow warning out.
Leysdown, north Kent

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