It certainly looks as though the early to middle part of November will see a continuation of the recent very unsettled weather. Beyond that, we don't really have a clear idea right now as the current output (GFS) only goes as far ahead as just before mid-November at the moment. One hopes that it doesn't last for the duration of November as I dread the thought of how bad the flooding in some areas of the country would likely turn out to be were that scenario to play out.

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Low of 946mb stalling right over my head for hours on end on that run. A bit unrealistic to be honest 

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Another 23mm fallen since midnight but this month probably won't be as wet as last November which saw over 250mm of rain down here. 

Thursday looks like it could be filled with Amber and Red warnings at the moment and many firework displays might be cancelled next weekend

950..   😮 😮 

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Last year the local bonfire night was a total fail as they couldn't get the bonfire lit due to the incessant rain.

Looking at the output this morning, I can see that happening again this year. 100mm+ on the cards by next Saturday.

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The fright fest is being saved for the days immediately after Halloween. What an absolute horror show.

GFS 06Z brings in another nasty disturbance later in the week.

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Well, the 12z ICON is off to a horrible start - gusts to 80mph in SE Kent, 90mph in eastern Devon and the far SW of Cornwall, as the centre of the low on Thursday crosses Wales.

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I don't think GEFS outputs a wind gust parameter, but MOGREPS-G does. You can change location from:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/mogreps.aspx?run=na&chartname=mogrepswg&chartlocation=london 

Some of the perturbations are looking horrific.

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The scary thing is that MOGREPS is on the bottom end, as far as I can tell. Certainly for here, we have on Thursday morning:

MOGREPS (via MetO): 48mph gusts (as usual, this has been slowly creeping up over the past 2 days)
ECM (via BBC): 55mph (for several hours)
GFS: 62mph (and over 60 for several hours)

GFS has been see-sawing between 55 and 71 over the past few runs.

Based on that, if things stay as they are, I'd expect around 60 here, perhaps with a "mega gust" above that if a squall line is involved, and well into the 70s or even 80s along the south coast. And maybe into the 90s for the Needles etc.

It goes without saying that I'm desperately hoping for a correction south, but that will only happen if the low doesn't deepen as expected (the deeper the low ends up, the further north it'll go, at least that's my understanding).




 

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FWIW, I think it does - MC has it, anyway:

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=&y=&run=6&ville=Londres&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&runpara=0&ext=1&type=8 

 

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I don’t get what the pattern change is that is giving repeat east of Scotland rain, historically was always west/southwest Scotland that got it

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Good spot. It's put in a different grib to most of the other commons parameters which is why I've not seen it before. I'll try and add in soon.

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I've started a dedicated thread for this week's storm (Storm Ciaran ?) and moved the most recent posts to it.

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WX charts show not a lot of change in temps over the next two weeks; cold over the far N of Europe, warm (just about) around the Med and the rest of Europe sandwiched between. That's in absolute terms - relative to norm, Spain, the Alps and N Scandinavia are cool but the Balkans remain warm. As for rainfall, that continues in place for Atlantic coastal countries from Portugal to S Norway with an extension across S France to Italy (NW Scotland gets a marginal respite in week 1)

GFS Op - the current LP fills slowly and then on Thu 2nd is booted unceremoniously out of the way by storm (??? Ciaran - deepest over England so should be named in the MetO sequence) which is on the 0z chart 960mb Birmingham midday with strongest winds (SW-ly) through the Channel but also N-ly gales for Wales; Scotland less affected. After breaking up into multi-centres on Friday, the storm re-groups 955mb Sat 4th Hampshire with the strongest winds shifted S-wards to N France though more E-lies for S Scotland. It fills rapidly and moves off to the NE. After a brief spell of 'traditional' W-ly weather, it's Scotland's turn - 960mb Sun 12th Aberdeenshire - this time with a very cold-looking N'ly feed. Then eyes on the south again as a locally deep secondary swings around the main LP to reach the tip of Cornwall 955mb Tue 14th. A stormy period, as prolonged as I can remember if it all comes off.

ECM - runs storm (Ciaran) across England on much the same track as GFS (Cornwall Thu early morning to East Anglia Thu late) and then brings in Saturday's storm marginally less intense and slightly further N i.e. over the Midlands. The following few days have more of a NW-ly cast as HP rises (weakly) in the Atlantic. [Note - now we're on GMT, the ECM download is at 0700 and I don't have to wait until >0800 before writing this up)

FAX on Thu - 950mb the Wash, SW-lies as strong as ever, more E-lies for Scotland than shown elsewhere

GEFS - temps close to or a little below norm with good agreement between ens members until Wed 8th, when a scatter either  side of norm develops. Rain heaviest in the first week but still occurring in most ens members in the second week, noticeably less in Scotland by then. Snow row figures often around 3 or 4 for Inverness and almost nothing elsewhere - I'd expect higher values given the synoptics around the 12th.

JET broad and V strong aimed at N France Wed 1st - Sun 5th, dying down a little, then repeat  closer to Britain Wed 8th to Sat 11th and again Tue 14th

Dedicated posts for this week's storm can go in their own thread.

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Some staggering rainfall totals over the next couple of weeks . Widely 10cm to 15cm. Significant flooding likely. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=18&run=0&time=384&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 
 

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I reckon that the abundance of high pressure that has been present well to the north of the UK and Scandinavia in the past couple of weeks or so has been a big factor in this. Indeed, mention has been made of this by one or two BBC forecasters just recently. This seems to have been preventing atlantic LPs from (a) taking their normal track just to the north of the UK which usually means that western areas, especially western Scotland get the greatest amounts of rain, and (b) has slowed down the movement of the LPs which most of the time would move away relatively quickly. It is these two factors combined that IMO have led to the east of Scotland receving such high rainfall recently.

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One of the latest forecast models shows it moving somewhat further south sparing the south coast but giving Northern France a battering.  

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What a stormy spell of weather this is turning out to be. 

As I mentioned in the CC thread I was in France over half term on the Ile de Ré, and it was very windy and wet, with thunderstorms and hail on our last day (Friday). Thankfully there are plenty of cosy cafes and brasseries!

With a spring tide due today I think conditions could be quite interesting there this afternoon - I’ll have to see if I can find a webcam. 

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Expanding from that, it highlights quite an interesting synoptic setup for our area of the world, as a whole. The Atlantic conveyor belt is further south than you would expect at this time of year, with higher than normal pressure to our north. It actually wouldn't take much to send us into a colder pattern (though how cold it would actually be in early November is another consideration). If it persists though, I would be watching with a keen eye as we head closer to the meteorological winter.

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The storm after Ciaran, due Sat 4th, may get a name for itself too - and a dedicated thread in due course. In the meantime, I wouldn't want to be organising a fireworks display or a bonfire then.

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The storm after Ciaran, due Sat 4th, may get a name for itself too - and a dedicated thread in due course. In the meantime, I wouldn't want to be organising a fireworks display or a bonfire then.

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Yes theres definitely a different ‘feel’ to the pattern thus far, but as ever could flip to standard practice overnight.  First time ive heard mention of snow with inbound front this season too .. 

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WX temp summary shows more or less normal temperatures for the coming week; still a little below norm for Spain and Scandinavia, but that bit much above norm for the Balkans moving more to the east. For the second week, the cold is more distributed, the whole of NW Europe cooler though the freezing area to the far NE withdrawing somewhat. N Scotland and N Spain definitely cooler. Rainfall predictions unstable - week 1 not just Atlantic coasts as was yesterday but in addition extension to the Baltic and to N Mediterranean as far as Greece; in week 2 less rain for Britain and the north (Less is not the same as zero) but a broad swathe from Spain to Greece including the Alps.

GFS Op - slack LP until Wed 1st then a twin attack 970mb Rockall and 980mb far to SW consolidating into Storm Ciaran on Thu 2nd, at midday 955mb E Anglia with gales circulating around the centre, strongest as SW-lies through the Channel, moving off into the N Sea Fri 3rd, only to introduce a new storm Sat 4th, 955mb E Anglia again! This covers a larger  area, which puts the strongest gales across France, and Scotland though in cold air is fairly quiet. Again this moves quickly NE but this time pressure rises behind it feeding in NE-lies until Wed 8th. For a few days there is a ridge of HP W-E across Scotland while LP does its worst in the Mediterranean but by Wed 15th LP is back from the Atlantic covering the whole of Britain but not stormy.

ECM - places Ciaran 960mb 0z Thu 2nd at the tip of Cornwall and 24hrs later over the Wash so much the same as GFS though the worst of the gales may be for N France. Ciaran is slower to move away and links with the next storm to form a centre 960 mb N Sea Sun 5th, again covering a larger area with less severe gales and those mainly for France, though the Hebrides get something N-ly. Then it fills but stays a little further W so winds are N-ly rather than NE-ly by Wed 8th.

FAX - likes the twin attack of GFS and places Ciaran in the same place at the same time with the same pressure, just adding in a couple of small secondaries circulating S-wards off W Ireland which should hold off N-ly gales in W Britain. 

GEFS - temps close to or a little below norm, at their lowest 2-3C below around Fri 10th by which time ens agreement is breaking up. Rain through to end of run Thu 16th, heaviest in first week, still some ens members predicting rain for N Scotland later despite Op showing HP there. (Scotland has a dip in temp and a dry couple of days before Ciaran arrives)

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Pretty amazing to hear that really -to have a stormy UK this last while, while here in Ireland, wind speeds have been running much below average for most of the month. This is the first October since I started keeping records that I haven't recorded even a single gale gust. Octobers should not be this calm! 

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