WX temp charts scarcely alter for the next two weeks; slightly above norm for Europe which means cold for the far N, cool for most, some warmth around the shores of the Mediterranean. Any serious anomaly is far to the east, by the Caspian, where it's much warmer than normal. The rainfall pattern similarly stuck with heavy rain for Atlantic coastal countries in both weeks, with extra patches here and there over Europe in week one, something heavier spreading down through the Alps to the Balkans in week two.

GFS Op - LP covering Britain today, centred 960mb S Wales, off to the N Sea by Monday. Then LPs from the Atlantic  (unlike yesterday, not a fixed centre near Iceland but active centres moving E over N Britain) as follows; 980mb Thu 9th, 965mb Mon 13th, , the second of these sticking over the N Sea and introducing long fetch N-lies Wed 15th. Then a short-lived ridge of HP toppling over and making way for the next LP off NW Scotland 975mb Mon 20th

ECM similar but with a tendency for the Atlantic LPs to fill and follow a more southerly track as they transit Britain.

GEFS - temps a little below norm to Sat 11th (one day warmer in the S Thu 9th) then for the rest of the forecast period to Mon 20th mean temp is slightly above norm but with poor agreement in ens members; perhaps a little milder at first and again later. Rain in most runs on many days - briefly drier around Tue 7th and more likely wetter around Sun 12th, always wetter in S & W, NE Scotland benefiting from a rain shadow.

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I think we’re “overdue” a rain shadow! I guess it indicates a more SWly and less Ely flow than over recent weeks up here.

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At this time of the year though, that usually also means that it will be milder and that isn't going to be very good news for any cold weather lovers who might be looking for some early falls of snow during this month.
 

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WX has nothing much to predict on temperatures: cool/cold in the N of Europe, warm/mild around the Mediterranean, and most areas not far from norm with the only exception continuing to be the warmth well east around the Caspian. In week 2 however, much colder air from the NE is beginning to edge across the Urals. For Rainfall, Britain continues wet for the next two weeks; in week 1 this is part of an area on the Atlantic coast from N Spain up to S Sweden, with an extension to the Balkan and Italy - in week 2 this extension detaches down to Greece and Turkey while the Atlantic area reduces to Britain and S Norway, with a little (likely snow) over the Alps.

GFS Op - the current LP becomes part of a large flabby area of LP extending to the far Baltic before a new depression arrives from the Atlantic to twin centres 980mb Ireland and Faeroes Thu 9th. Again these decline E-wards. The next LP stands off near Greenland for a while with strong SW-lies for Britain until a deep local LP breaks off 970mb Hebrides Wed 15th with gales for all parts followed promptly by another from the SW, with a larger wind field also 960mb Hebrides. Then yet another LP 980mb Orkney Tue 21st. Any HP in this period hanging around over S Russia and also some remarkable heights over Greenland e.g. 1050mb Sun12th.

ECM- similar to GFS but the LP on Thu 9th is one centre near N Ireland, and the LP on Wed 15th is missing.

GEFS - temps not far from norm - cooler to Sat 11th, then milder for a few days, and again the mean returns to mild around Sun 19th but much ens disagreement at this time. Dry-ish for a while, rain a feature from Thu 9th especially around Mon 12th but never really letting up. Wettest overall in S & W.

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weather for the week, sunshine and showers, rain wed. Temps average to cooler. Northerly ‘breeze’ by next weekend

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WX has little to change from yesterday: cool/cold in the N of Europe, warm/mild around the Mediterranean, and most areas not far from norm with the only exception continuing to be the warmth well east around the Caspian. In week 2 however, the colder air noted yesterday is due to affect Scandinavia more than Russia. For Rainfall, again a repeat: Britain continues wet for the next two weeks; in week 1 this is part of an area on the Atlantic coast from N Spain up to S Sweden, with an extension to the Balkans and Italy - in week 2 however rain affects most of Europe and is especially heavy over Germany.

GFS Op - current LP settling over Scandinavia and filling; new Atlantic LP Wed 8th projecting trough over Britain with secondary centre 975mb Hebrides (FAX has active fronts crossing all of Britain). This moves to N Sea with light N-lies behind it. The next LP comes in from the W to N Scotland 965mb Tue 14th - this time the subsequent N-lies swing a secondary LP south to England 975mb Fri 17th. LP continues to dominate British weather through to Wed 22nd when there are linked centres 985mb NW Spain, 1005mb Holland and 995mb Baltic. Any Hp to be found over Greenland or the Mediterranean.

ECM - differs after Mon 13th when there is a brief ridge of HP. Then the LP on the following day is quite shallow and over Scotland with HP growing from the SW behind it.

GEFS - temps rather like yesterday - cool to Sat 11th, then milder periods around Mon 13th and Sun 19th, though little agreement on the latter and not showing up in the N. Rain from Wed 8th onwards, perhaps a dry day before heavier in week beginning Sun 12th esp in S & W. 

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Definitely flirting with an easterly after the weekend.  ECM makes more of it than the GFS

Plenty of runs to see if this develops

Im begging for a bit of dry weather right now.  Fed up of the sound of heavy rain on my velux  

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WX temps for week 1 look much as yesterday, cool/cold in the N of Europe, warm/ mild in the Med, overall for Europe a little above average for the time of year with the major anomaly well to the E around the Caspian where it remains very warm. In week there is a big expansion of the cold area S-wards, not affecting W Europe much but E Europe definitely cooler and the Caspian loses its favoured status. Rain in week 1 still for Atlantic coastal countries, with more in the Balkans and Greece; in week 2 the former patch moves N-wards to affect W Britain and Norway and the latter moves E-wards to Turkey and Syria. 

GFS Op - The jet remains active S & W of Britain, quite close or touching the SW on Fri 10th, Tue 14th, before looping N-wards to affect Scotland especially Fri 17th & Wed 22nd. In terms of ground level synoptics, Britain continues dominated by LP 985mb Irish Sea Fri 10th, 975mb Faeroes Wed 15th, with W-lies until HP comes up from the S from Sat 18th. This persists over S England or N France, typically 1030mb, but with LP deepening off NW Scotland Tue 21st and Thu 23rd, SW-gales are likely for most of Britain. Further afield, HP is usually present over E Greenland and a Siberian LP is responsible for bringing the cold weather to E Europe as above.

ECM - similar to GFS until Wed 15th when the LP near Faeroes never really develops, instead springing off a small local LP 990mb Devon which travels on down to S France before HP begins to rise as above.

GEFS - cool compared to norm until Sun 12th, then milder at least for the S around Tue 14th before back to norm Fri 17th when ens agreement breaks down in a big way; mean a little above norm but e.g. on Tue 21st op is 10C above and control 5C below mean. Rain on Wed/Thu this week, the quite wet for w/b Sun 12th before appearing in fewer ens members but unlikely to be completely dry and certainly not in the W..

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ECM stepping up its support of this, this morning.  Albeit a day or so later.

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Possible but unlikely IMO.

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Well Saturday looks nice for most!

😁

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Eyebrows continue to be raised with this evenings ECM and GFS (12z’s)
some form of blocking to to our north east looks possible, and with Atlantic depressions tracking further south than usual would tie in with the Met office latest long range text for the turn of the month. 
 

WX temp summary for week 1 shows most of Europe a little above norm for the time of year, Scandinavia rather colder and the far E, beyond the Black Sea, rather warmer. In week 2 there is a considerable expansion of the freezing weather over N Russia, mainly S-wards but also W as far as the Polish border, with a prospective link further SW to the Alps. Little change for Britain. In week 1 heavy rain for Atlantic coastal countries from Portugal to Norway and wet, though less so, over much of Europe, In week 2, the Atlantic effect retreats to just Britain (esp the W) and Norway, while the rain over continental Europe gathers up over, Ausria, the Balkans and Greece.

GFS Op - Current LP taking its time to fill and move SE-wards, it's in Poland by Sat 11th; next LP is S of Greenland Sun 12th but projecting a trough E-wards which travels S across Britain eventually forming a shallow depression Thu 16th 995mb southern N Sea. The following week, from Sun 19th there is a contrast between LP at first very deep 940mb off Greenland moving to Iceland 955mb Fri 24th and HP, at first strong over Britain (1035mb Cornwall Tue 21st) but slowly moving E-wards. After a tickle from the east promoted by the LP on the 16th, zonal flow is back in place over N Europe a week later.

ECM - similar to GFS; the LP on Wed 15th (rather than the 16th) is deeper (985mb) and the final chart (Sat 18th) brings LP closer to Scotland with no real development of HP to the SW.

GEFS - relative to seasonal norm, on the cool side to Sun 12th; milder for a few days (only just about mild in N) and then again later but at that stage with much disagreement between ens members. Wet at first esp in S, and then generally wet periods around Tue 14th and Sun 19th with something marginally drier between and after.

 

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WX forecasting much the same as yesterday week 1 shows most of Europe a little above norm for the time of year, Scandinavia rather colder and the far E, beyond the Black Sea, rather warmer. In week 2 there is a considerable expansion of the freezing weather over N Russia, mainly S-wards but also W as far as the Polish border, with a prospective link further SW to the Alps. Little change for Britain. The expansion of the cold weather is more marked, but not as much as shown late yesterday when freezing conditions reached all the way to Switzerland. The precipitation, too, is like yesterday In week 1 heavy rain for Atlantic coastal countries from Portugal to Norway and wet, though less so, over much of Europe, In week 2, the Atlantic effect retreats to just Britain (esp the W) and Norway, while the rain over continental Europe gathers up over, Austria, the Balkans and Greece but northern Europe from Pyrenees to Baltic is now shown drier.

GFS Op - current LP near Scotland drifting E-wards and filling as it gets absorbed by large area of LP over N Russia Tue 14th. It trails a trough behind it which develops a transient but deep centre 970mb N Ireland Mon 13th (BBC uncertain but tending to suggest this will arrive on Sunday). This too drifts E-wards and fills, being replaced by HP 1035mb E Germany Sun 19th, generating SW-lies for Britain on its western edge, gales in the NW. By Sat 25th this HP has moved somewhat further E and Britain is under the influence of deep Atlantic LP 960mb Rockall.

ECM - similar to GFS until Wed 15th though Monday's 'transient LP' does not appear as a distinct feature. But on Thu 16th LP breaks away to form a centre 985mb Denmark. This traverses Europe to the Black Sea Sun 19th, and HP des not appear over Germany at that time, but instead over W France. Britain still gets the SW-lies.

GEFS - ens mean temps not far from norm; if anything a tendency to be cooler until Sun 12th and again around Fri 17th, else milder by a degree or two  (op & control very mild later on).  Some rain in the next day or two esp for the S & E and again more generally later, but  in between these, the week beginning Sun 12th suggests a soaking.

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The models seems to be slowly coming together with an idea of yet another active runner low spinning off a southern tracking jet stream and taking a short cut eastwards through the middle portion of the UK by middle of next week. While it is unlikely to be at the same level of Ciaran and is a fairly long way off in forecasting terms so there are some leg room for adjustments, that would bring yet more unwanted rain and strong winds for my neck of the woods. I hope we aren't going to have another 2013/14 style winter, everything's already been wind blasted and saturated as it is! But on the other hand, November 2010 was a wet and windy month and we can remember what that lead to.

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Still not a million miles away from an easterly / NE blocking influence...

Most of the runs are very close to this pulling off for some parts of the UK.  Im still very interested.

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Yes, it's looking a bit ominous again. As with Ciaran, and the heat last year, it was picked up early by an ensemble member of GEFS. It's gaining more support as time goes by...

Grabs from the 6z GEFS. Look familiar?

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/94/11707/gensfr_14_8_126wev8.png
 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/21/18471/gensfr_9_8_108mri1.png
 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/11/26062/gensfr_5_8_150wyd2.png 

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Not good timing if we do get a storm on the 14th as it'll coincide with the Spring tides. Not as big as October's but would be challenging nonetheless. 

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12z GFS has a one-two battering.

First, Wales, T+96 - this is followed by 50mph+ winds transferring over the Midlands.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/67/649/96_289UKsub6.GIF 


and then the secondary low overnight into Wednesday - a bit further south than the 6z run:

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/99/11443/132_289rte6.GIF
 

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From what I remember, November 2010 was a largely quiet and uneventful month weatherwise in my part of the world, that is until the start of the big freeze that dominated December arrived in the last few days of November. I do recall November 2009 as being very wet and windy and fairly mild for the most part, more so than the following November in my neck of the woods.

On topic, there are some interesting scenarios being suggested by some model runs for the second half of this month. Whether any of them come to fruition, we shall have to wait and see. Nevertheless, it is interesting to see them appear in some of the output at this stage.

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This does seem to be firming up quite quickly now, if this keeps up expect warnings to be issued tomorrow.

The 12z MetO, like GFS, is stormy - an awful run. Here's the composite max gust map, comprised of no fewer than three systems.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/39/22099/ukmohd_uk1_52_168_0uzn9.png 



Sunday night, the Channel coasts and the Westcountry:

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/67/20031/ukmohd_11_75_0zot9.png
 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/28/4281/ukmohd_11_78_0pko4.png
 

Monday, Wales and the Midlands:

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/78/1059/ukmohd_11_102_0qob0.png 


And then severe gales over much of the south on Wednesday.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/21/1801/ukmohd_11_132_0vya0.png
 

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The GEFS continues to have some very windy members. This is feeling much like the run-up to Ciaran, somewhere's going to get battered again... 😕

I only hope (as a fan of snow) that the payoff for all this storminess is a cold spell to follow... these southerly tracking lows are helping build the cold to our NE.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/48/14071/gensfr_6_8_144ldm1.png
 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/28/3471/gensfr_21_8_132tng7.png
 


https://images.meteociel.fr/im/5/13775/gensfr_16_8_156fhv8.png
 

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/15/10110/gensfr_24_8_132san1.png 

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yes agreed the Southerly tracking lows have piqued my interest slightly for the upcoming Winter if that pattern continues. There is also a bit of a tripole pattern developing in the Atlantic SSTs and also the early build of snow cover over Scandinavia. Of course there are also plenty of factors pointing towards a mild Winter and I would not be confident in predicting a cold Winter, however it's still too early to be writing off Winter just yet.
​​​​

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WX charts show most of  Europe in week 1 continuing with above normal temps for the time of year i.e.mild/cool according to location though Norway and N Sweden very cold, and anything much above norm only the other side of the Black Sea. In week 2 the generally freezing area over N Russia moves S-wards as far as the borders of Poland and Romania. Britain if anything a little milder. A band of rain in week 1 from Atlantic through Britain & the Alps to the Black Sea splits in week 2 to one area from NW Britain to Iceland and the other, much heavier for Greece and neighbouring countries.

GFS Op - current LP moving east and filling. New Atlantic LP remains mid-ocean but potent enough to push forward troughs across Britain, to the S on Sun 12th and to the N on Mon 13th, then to the S again with local deeper LPs in the Channel Tue 14th and N Ireland Thu 16th. The parent LP fills and moves E and then SE to settle in the Mediterranean. HP develops from Biscay with strong SW-lies for Britain until Tue 21st, then taking over to cover Britain 1030mb Thu 23rd, slowly moving E but still in charge Sun 26th. 

ECM - similar but the 'local deeper LPs' are replaced by a more general area of low pressure; and at the end (Mon 20th) HP is further S and showing no sign of expanding across Britain.

GEFS - cool to Sun 12th then milder for the rest of the period except for a dip for a day or two around Sat 18th with quite good ens agreement until then. Rain most likely from Mon 13th - Fri 17th and Mon 20th - Fri 24th in the S*, more continuous in N but less heavy in NE. 

*EDIT - I notice that this contradicts the op run which differs not only in this respect from most ens members but is also amongst the warmest.

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Im hoping something like this becomes stubborn to shift

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