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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
15 November 2023 21:14:31

Just like 2 years ago if the charts posted by Squish verifies. Had snow in Sheffield, with severe blizzards in the hills just to the W. Hallam moor recorded a max of -1C on 27 Nov, c.f, 3 C in Sheffield city centre.

Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora 

Yes. We cut short a trip to a garden centre to get home, as the snow was coming hard and fast. According to my photos that was the afternoon of 28th November 2021.  The snow was gone in a couple of days though. 
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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+1
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
15 November 2023 21:55:09

Just like 2 years ago if the charts posted by Squish verifies. Had snow in Sheffield, with severe blizzards in the hills just to the W. Hallam moor recorded a max of -1C on 27 Nov, c.f, 3 C in Sheffield city centre.

Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora 



As I said before, GFS is a false friend to those who would like a proper northerly. The 18z shifts the northerly blast eastwards, as so often before; Denmark gets it, we don't. Even ECM 12z only gives Scotland a quick blast (one day only) before moving the seriously cold weather eastwards.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
Gandalf The White
15 November 2023 22:05:28

I miss the Winter Optimism Index pointer.

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



It’s due to be pulled out of storage in 15 days…. 
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Jiries
16 November 2023 06:39:13

Laughable isn't it. It won't be the only time in the coming winter that the GFS does an about-turn.
My policy this coming winter is not to believe anything the charts show until its within 72 hours!!
For my sanity, I think that's a good idea.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



That correct as models had been useless with push backs, down grades, fail to spot spoiler lows in first place and collapsed events as near as 24 hrs.  72hrs are too risky only way to know for sure is on the day and from the window watching to know today forecast. 
Brian Gaze
16 November 2023 07:56:09
Lots of purple beginning to appear to the north.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Gusty
16 November 2023 08:24:12

Lots of purple beginning to appear to the north.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Yes. Deeper purples to the north representing the strengthening of the Polar Vortex.
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
16 November 2023 08:27:12
WX temp charts - no great change from the last few days with most of Europe just above norm except that Scandinavia remains rather cold. The (normal) freezing weather over N Russia keeps threatening  to move in but only makes slow progress into C Europe with some effect on Scotland too. The rainfall pattern is much as yesterday's chart, too; a large area over Britain and Germany  (but see below) and another around the Black Sea, not entirely dry in between.

GFS Op - starts consistent with yesterday, Lp in Channel today supplanted by larger LP from mid-Atlantic which traverses N of Scotland and down the N Sea into Europe by Tue 21st. Contrary to WX above, HP sets up to the SW of Britain and stays thereabouts to Sat 2nd while LPs run from Iceland down to S Sweden always leaving Britain on the fringe of a N-ly flow but essentially dry.

ECM - similar though Sat 25th sees a one-day closer approach of the N-lies cf. Brian's chart above.

GEFS - briefly mild around Sun 18th, and perhaps Sat 24th,  but back to norm between and little agreement after though some suggestion of a cooler early December. A pulse of rain for the S now, more generally on Sat 19th, rather dry thereafter. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2
ballamar
16 November 2023 08:39:02
Quite a common theme each year - decent cold charts show up for beginning of Dec seemingly forgetting about the key driver of the weather at this time of year the PV! Fun looking at some of the output while it’s there though - rapidly disappearing now
+1
CField
16 November 2023 10:38:42
Wonder except for the occasional meander the forthcoming three months will see the high  keep its shape and locate somewhere in the region eastern central Atlantic south west of UK.Scandinavia will be in the freezer and occasional incursions of cold air to the north east UK. The rest of us it will be another " What if winter of nothingness ".
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
Gandalf The White
16 November 2023 11:01:13

Quite a common theme each year - decent cold charts show up for beginning of Dec seemingly forgetting about the key driver of the weather at this time of year the PV! Fun looking at some of the output while it’s there though - rapidly disappearing now

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



Looking at the charts it seems to me that the problem is as much about the proximity of the high pressure belt to our south. That has been the main reason that colder air fails to flow sufficiently south. Sadly, for those hoping for seasonal winter weather, the climatological trend is for higher pressure to our south due to climate change; Brian posted the evidence last year. It doesn’t stop cold spells but it makes them less likely.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


nsrobins
16 November 2023 14:31:21

Looking at the charts it seems to me that the problem is as much about the proximity of the high pressure belt to our south. That has been the main reason that colder air fails to flow sufficiently south. Sadly, for those hoping for seasonal winter weather, the climatological trend is for higher pressure to our south due to climate change; Brian posted the evidence last year. It doesn’t stop cold spells but it makes them less likely.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Fair point. The science suggests the frequency of cold winters in the UK will drop at a similar rate as the frequency of severe rain or wind events increases, and the preponderance of high 500hPa anomalies to our south is evidence if you need it.
That said the weather is weather and never say never and all that. 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Rob K
16 November 2023 14:34:10

Yes. We cut short a trip to a garden centre to get home, as the snow was coming hard and fast. According to my photos that was the afternoon of 28th November 2021.  The snow was gone in a couple of days though. 

Originally Posted by: Caz 



We even had a dusting of snow down here in the south on 28/11/2021 which lasted until the next day.

6Z GFS tries to bring in an easterly after the brief northerly - not a lot of cold air around though, so still far from wintry down here at least!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
+1
Saint Snow
16 November 2023 15:06:21

We even had a dusting of snow down here in the south on 28/11/2021 which lasted until the next day.

6Z GFS tries to bring in an easterly after the brief northerly - not a lot of cold air around though, so still far from wintry down here at least!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 




Had a dusting here, too. My youngest was putting up her Xmas tree and still talks about that time she was decorating the tree whilst snow fell outside. It's magic memories like those that fill the heart.

She was born Feb 08 so sadly has no memory of either the Dec 09 or Dec 10 snow. She does remember Boxing Day 14, though, which is something.

I'd love another December 2010. 



 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
16 November 2023 15:46:12
Snow at Christmas is just magical.  We had 5 inches last year about two weeks before. I told my boys 6 and 8 at the time to drink it in as its so rare. Driving home in the dark that week with people's houses decorated with thick snow everywhere was just bliss. 
Who knows when that will happen again here could easily be 20 years.  
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
ballamar
16 November 2023 16:07:56

Snow at Christmas is just magical.  We had 5 inches last year about two weeks before. I told my boys 6 and 8 at the time to drink it in as its so rare. Driving home in the dark that week with people's houses decorated with thick snow everywhere was just bliss. 
Who knows when that will happen again here could easily be 20 years.  
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Possibly the most annoying snowfall ever - 5 miles on the wrong side of the isotherm! Rain and sleet for me very frustrating 
Retron
16 November 2023 16:12:07

Snow at Christmas is just magical.
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


1970 was the last time there was a Christmas card scene down here, i.e. snow falling and settling on Christmas Day. That was several years before I was born, and I'm now in my mid 40s!
Since I became sentient I've seen a couple of flakes (literally a couple) fall on Christmas Day one year, one year where there was some snow still in the garden (which made my day!) and another where I drove two miles to the hills nearby to see some snow on the ground, it having failed to settle IMBY. I would love to see a proper Christmas scene - at home.

As it'll be 53 years this year since it last happened, I don't fancy the chances. I suspect I'll be dead before it happens again, but hey... one of these years Kent might just get lucky.

Back to the here and now, I note the storm which the models had been showing for today ended up passing to the south (there were orange wind warnings in France as a result, they named the storm "FREDERICO"). This is good news, as it's been a long time since the last low went south of the UK - meaning the novelty of easterlies and NE'lies for a time today, together with that orangey glow in the sky as the sun set and the rain poured down. An omen for winter, perhaps? Certainly if it'd been 8 weeks later those of us in the south would have been on lamppost watch this evening!

As for the models further out, they're still coming to terms with the next big pattern change. It remains to be seen where the long-wave pattern ends up, but an Atlantic ridge of some magnitude seems to be the most favoured outcome IMO - whether it ridges far enough north to bring noteworthy cold remains to be seen (some of the GEFS over the past couple of days have brought the -10 850 line south over England), but as we all know - unlike damaging winds, or dangerous heat, those cold outliers seldom seem to come off!

If nothing else, though, at least we should see less in the way of rainfall for most - and I'm sure that'll be a most welcome change right now!
 
Leysdown, north Kent
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
16 November 2023 16:34:50

Possibly the most annoying snowfall ever - 5 miles on the wrong side of the isotherm! Rain and sleet for me very frustrating 

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



Yes nothing more annoying when you just miss out. We were very lucky last December as it was a relatively small area that got it.


 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Saint Snow
16 November 2023 16:54:49

Possibly the most annoying snowfall ever - 5 miles on the wrong side of the isotherm! Rain and sleet for me very frustrating 

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



More annoyingly, we were flying to Paris that morning for a long weekend. Snow moving in from the west. We had to wait for a de-icing and, as we were waiting, the light and not-lying snow became heavier and started to stick. The incompetent arseholes at Manc Airport closed the runway, supposedly for an hour to clear the runway. It maxed at 1cm deep. They kept it closed for 4 hours. Our flight got cancelled. Managed to get on another, but lost a whole day (out of 3)

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Brian Gaze
16 November 2023 16:58:18

Yes nothing more annoying when you just miss out. We were very lucky last December as it was a relatively small area that got it.


 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Indeed. The impressive thing was how well the snow lasted through the following days. In some ways I thought it was better locally than the 2010 event.
Anyway, GFS is still not without interest this afternoon, but as usual it is heights to the south which ruin things. This really is the bane of the "modern era" as far as cold weather in west Europe is concerned. People can work themselves into all sorts of contortions to produce complicated explanations of why X, Y or Z in some far flung part of the world will lead to cold weather in the UK. However, ignore the basics at your peril - the high pressure belt to the south is steadily extending northwards.

UserPostedImage

 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Saint Snow
16 November 2023 17:02:42

Indeed. The impressive thing was how well the snow lasted through the following days. In some ways I thought it was better locally than the 2010 event.
Anyway, GFS is still not without interest this afternoon, but as usual it is heights to the south which ruin things. This really is the bane of the "modern era" as far as cold weather in west Europe is concerned. People can work themselves into all sorts of contortions to produce complicated explanations of why X, Y or Z is some far flung part of the world will lead to cold weather in the UK. However, ignore the basics at your peril - the high pressure belt to the south is steadily extending northwards.

UserPostedImage

 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 




We need it to get a shift on and settle a further thousand miles north, then 😁

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Retron
16 November 2023 17:37:43

People can work themselves into all sorts of contortions to produce complicated explanations of why X, Y or Z is some far flung part of the world will lead to cold weather in the UK. However, ignore the basics at your peril - the high pressure belt to the south is steadily extending northwards.
 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


I'm not sure whether it was you, but I remember last winter someone posting a chart showing the rise in 500mb heights, I think it was, over the past few decades. It was stark and showed exactly what you're saying.

As for the wiffle about "teleconnections", I always take them with a pinch of salt - I sometimes think over on the other channel people throw around those technical terms (MJO etc) just to make themselves look good. And no, nobody's yet cracked it - for whatever they say, however good the moonsoon in India might be, or however high the anomalous heights over the Arctic rise, or how perfect the tripole anomaly might be in the Atlantic, it still seems to be harder than ever to get a proper wintry outbreak.

It can still happen, of course, but it reminds me of that game you used to see in shopping centres (roll dice to win a car). Instead of getting three sixes out of five dice, we now need four or even five out of five - purely to counter the inevitable rise in temperatures (and increased heights), plus the knock-on effects of these, which define our current climate.
Leysdown, north Kent
+1
Gandalf The White
16 November 2023 18:44:09

I'm not sure whether it was you, but I remember last winter someone posting a chart showing the rise in 500mb heights, I think it was, over the past few decades. It was stark and showed exactly what you're saying.

As for the wiffle about "teleconnections", I always take them with a pinch of salt - I sometimes think over on the other channel people throw around those technical terms (MJO etc) just to make themselves look good. And no, nobody's yet cracked it - for whatever they say, however good the moonsoon in India might be, or however high the anomalous heights over the Arctic rise, or how perfect the tripole anomaly might be in the Atlantic, it still seems to be harder than ever to get a proper wintry outbreak.

It can still happen, of course, but it reminds me of that game you used to see in shopping centres (roll dice to win a car). Instead of getting three sixes out of five dice, we now need four or even five out of five - purely to counter the inevitable rise in temperatures (and increased heights), plus the knock-on effects of these, which define our current climate.

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Yes, it was Brian, as I mentioned this morning in my post above.

As you say, the odds are steadily worsening.  It doesn’t mean it can’t happen but makes it more difficult.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


ballamar
16 November 2023 18:50:24

Yes, it was Brian, as I mentioned this morning in my post above.

As you say, the odds are steadily worsening.  It doesn’t mean it can’t happen but makes it more difficult.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



assuming the pattern change is the result of climate change - could flip as well
David M Porter
16 November 2023 19:14:51

assuming the pattern change is the result of climate change - could flip as well

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



I can remember during the first two winters that I was a member of this forum, 06/07 and 07/08 (both of which were poor for coldies), there were numerous discussions along these lines in this forum. IIRC, quite a few back then questioned whether a sustained spell of notable winter cold was even possible any more in the UK in view of the warming there had been up to that time. One member whom I will not name seemed convinced that such spells were consigned to the history books as winter pressure patterns would no longer allow for it. Little could anyone have envisaged at that point the events of two consecutive winters as we ended the first decade of the 21st century and moved into the second. The events of Dec 2009/Jan 2010 and then December 2010 were certainly a big surprise to me when they occured and not something I would have bet any money on happening a few years beforehand.

As someone said further up this page, the old saying of 'never say never' still holds true when it comes to the British weather these days just as it has done at any point in times past.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
+2
Taylor1740
16 November 2023 19:50:33

Indeed. The impressive thing was how well the snow lasted through the following days. In some ways I thought it was better locally than the 2010 event.
Anyway, GFS is still not without interest this afternoon, but as usual it is heights to the south which ruin things. This really is the bane of the "modern era" as far as cold weather in west Europe is concerned. People can work themselves into all sorts of contortions to produce complicated explanations of why X, Y or Z in some far flung part of the world will lead to cold weather in the UK. However, ignore the basics at your peril - the high pressure belt to the south is steadily extending northwards.

UserPostedImage

 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


that may end up being true that high pressure builds more to the South as we get to the Winter, however is it not true that the Jetstream has been tracking much further south than normal recently since around mid-October, which would therefore suggest that high pressure to the South of us has been weaker and or further south than normal recently, which also explains all these storms that have often affected places further south than normal?
NW Leeds - 150m amsl

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