WX charts show week 1 with near normal temps across Europe though cold in Scandinavia. In week 2, though the push of cold air from the NE is still forecast and cooler conditions for Europe including Britain generally, it's not quite as massive an incursion as previously shown. Rain/snow in week 1 generally across Europe, though drier for SW Britain, France and Spain. Much the same distribution in week 2 though smaller totals.
GFS Op - current LP taking its time to move off SE-wards to the Adriatic but by Wed 22nd a well-defined HP cell 1030mb in the SW Approaches transitioning to a N-S ridge in the Atlantic and allowing strong N-lies to affect all of Britain Sat 25th in the circulation of a large LP in the E Baltic. That LP slowly fills, the winds decrease, and the HP is back to the SW 1035mb Fri 1st. This time it ridges E-wards, S Britain stays under the high but N Britain is under W-ly influence by Mon 4th.
ECM - Instead of the N-S ridge above, pressure drops in the Atlantic and creates a broader N-ly flow Sat 25th, though not as strong. By Wed 29th the HP has re-asserted itself to the NW and the forecast is converging with GFS (though ECM throws in a locally deep LP off Portugal as an extra)
GEM - keeps pressure high close to the S of Britain and any N-lies are confined to Scandinavia and W-lies for Britain. As the week progresses cold weather may affect N Scotland, but this as a result of LPs tracking across from Greenland with W/NW winds rather than direct N-lies.
GEFS - temps briefly mild Thu 24th, then a big and abrupt drop in temp in all ens members to ca 5-7C below norm. Op, Control and mean then agree on a slow recovery but still a little below norm Tue 5th, though a wide spread of outcomes develops e.g Fri 1st in the S from 12C below norm to 8C above. Mostly dry for now, rain (snow at altitude?) showing up in most ens members from Sun 26th ( a day or two earlier in Scotland) but not especially heavy, except possibly the SW.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl