12Z GFS makes a lot of the LP towards the end of next week and brings lots of milder air into the mix. Not what I want to see.

And GEM never really gets the cold air in before it gets swept away. Definitely an uninspiring 12Z set so far, although the UKMO looks interesting.

---

I think the 6z did too Rob- the ENS certainly showed the green line way above the pack.

---

Quite right. Just south of Winchester the snow was patchy on the ground on 25th, for example, but we dined in Chilbolton about 9 miles to the N, and not on high ground, with a white carpet still.

---

I see that today's 14:00 Met Office "long range" forecast for 28th Nov to 7th Dec now ends "there is an increasing chance of areas of cloud, rain and/or snow, perhaps with strong winds too, spreading north across at least southern areas from later next wee".

---

As so often the case, by the time the Met update their forecast, the models have changed their minds again!

---

UKM Global precip type charts on TWO are here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukmetuk.aspx?run=12&charthour=1&chartname=precip_type&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=Precip%20type 

If you use them, I would advise cross-checking with another source. Likewise, if you use another source I would advise cross-checking with TWO or a third source. (This does not apply to UKV)

---

The GEFS mean at t+240 suggests a slight shift towards the mild end of the spectrum.

---

The t850hPa mean looks a good deal below average for much of the outlook as far as I can see (on the 12z GEFS suite).

---

ECM shifts everything 200 miles north. So mild and stormy now for most next weekend. 

I know the ECM model tends to overdo the snow but even still this is interesting: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/snow-depth/20231203-1200z.html 

---

https://services.meteored.com/img/models/ecmwf/ECMWF_180_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.png 

https://services.meteored.com/img/models/ecmwf/ECMWF_186_GB_SFC_fr-FR_fr.png, 

ECM 12z,

Good lord!!❄

---

All right for some e.g. north of the M4

---

Bit of a worry that Gfs 12z 384hrs chart....be really gutting if that set up dominates on the run up to Christmas...

---

This one  or the one 6 hours later  or even the one from the morning ?

I assume you're being sarcastic or just wanting to highlight the futility of looking at the synoptics one one model run at that timepoint given the fact the previous run was totally different and the one that is due in the next couple of hours will almost certainly show a different scenario? 🤣

---

10-15mm of snow IMBY on 1st Dec?
Pull the other one - it hath bells upon't.
 

---

Interesting synoptics from GFS and ECM that look nice but manage to skilfully divert any cold air away from the south of the country whichever direction it comes from. 

---

🤣

---

Two runs on the trot showing this now so must be nailed on lol

---

The 18z op run was nothing like the 12z (to which you referred originally). The 384hr chart of this run does have a generally SW flow at that time point but otherwise synoptically quite different. 

Anyway back to the more reliable time frame and the generally cooler than average output remains. It looks quite messy rather than wintry for most I would guess.

---

Some of the more wintry solutions now being ‘smoothed’ as so often happens. A rather cold outlook with a risk of wintry ppn in places, with a small chance of something more substantial would be my take on it.
 

---

Plenty of interest this morning.  GFS has a significant snow event next Thursday. 🥶🥶🥶

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=25&run=0&time=162&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

UKMO and GEM looking good also.
 

---

Snowy run from the GFS this morning has another dump this time for the South on the 6th.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=25&run=0&time=306&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 


 

---

Quite a solidly cold set of GEFS although almost always on the wrong side of the knife edge for us southerners. Some transitional snow as the mild air moves in at the end but we know that doesn’t usually happen. 

Still makes a change from the usual. 

In the shorter term a much milder end to next week than previously shown. From 2C and snow to 6C and rain on the auto output for Friday. 

---

WX much as yesterday  keeping the freezing area over Europe, with all areas being below the longterm average, except Spain and E of the Urals. Some rearrangement in week 2, less extensive over France but more influence over Britain but today esp for Scotland; . Rain/snow pattern has shifted somewhat, week 1 broadly from Britain through C Eurpe, the Adriatic and on to Ukraine; week 2 splitting into two areas, one on the Atlantic and nearby coasts, the other in the E Mediterranean.

GFS Op - the current large LP over Scandinavia with N-lies for Britain declines but then encouraging LPs to develop and run SE-wards across Britain 995mb E Anglia Mon 27th and 990mb Thames Fri 1st, the latter with some NE-lies before the Scandinavian LP revives with its N-lies Tue 5th. HP for one day only for Britain Thu 7th before extensive area of LP from mid-Atlantic to N Norway with not-warm SW-lies for Britain(returnig Polar Maritime). Not looking snowy except for the hills.

ECM - Similar to GFS with minor differences in positions of LP w/b Mon 27th; the last LP on Fri 1st lingers with the prospect of NE-lies as it links to LP in Scandinavia

GEM - similar to ECM; the LP on Fri 1st is deeper 980mb and has run down the Irish Sea into N France.

GEFS - more pptn around than yesterday with snow row figures representing a 10% (SW)-30%(NE) chance of snow when pptn does occur, quite widely; main dates in most runs for pptn Mon 27th and Fri 1st as above, and then in some runs after Tue 5th. Generally cold, say 5C below norm until Tue 5th and then (but with little agreement in ens members) just about recovering to norm. One day, Sun 26th, is milder than the rest.

---

Looks like standard winter conditions unfolding over the next week, albeit slightly early. Nothing really to write home about unless you live on high ground in Scotland. 
expect the S word to be scrubbed off the Met office medium range text very soon.