It usually does upgrade when time come nearer as usually starting at -4C to -8C the most results.  I hope this coming cold spell are much better than last year fog infested dry cold spell that stopped my area from seeing any snow events.   As long there some cold winds to keep fog out and allow snowfalls to snow showers events to occur on this coming cold spell.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 

As you can see by my sig, the only 'snow' I got last december was a few sleety flakes when the warm front arrived. Was absolutely dreadful. There were a couple of ridiculously cold days with -2C or so maxes but I have no desire to see days of foggy cold with temperatures hovering around 0C basically all of the time.
 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

The 12z MetO is a thing of wonder - a perfect omega block setting up to our west, and it's still very much in charge at 168.

GFS tries to set one up too, but doesn't quite get there. The low that plunges SE'wards is the anchor for the omega block, as it merges with the cut-off upper trough that's lurking over mainland Europe.

Originally Posted by: Retron 

The way that deep cold pool advects SW'wards across Scandinavia between tomorrow and Tuesday is impressive. What is even more impressive is the way the sub -10's literally disappear on entry over the North Sea. Its like watching a snowball being dropped into a bowl of hot water.

A uniquely extended spell of cool weather is on the way with plenty of cold rain and the odd surprise event based on the usual marginal factors of evaporative cooling, low level cold continental feeds, altitude, diurnal timings etc etc.




 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

I've been looking at these charts for over two decades, and the depth of cold forecast for Scandinavia is remarkable. The last time we saw charts like this was, you guessed it, 2010.

Even the good ol' UK is in the 2-4C below category, which is all the more remarkable as it uses a 1901-2000 mean as its base, rather than the more usual 1961-90 or 1991-2020 periods.

First link - today's chart. Second link - today's chart in 2010!

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.png 

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/temp4.png 
 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

The current model output does remind me a lot of that of November 2010 and December 2009 too, Darren. I think the only times since December 2010 when we have seen such interesting model output in the winter were in early 2013 and then in late February 2018, in the lead-up to the famed 'Beast from the East' spell.

A memorable cold spell could develop from the current output, but we must keep our feet firmly on the ground in the meantime and keep our eyes on the models over the coming days.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

As much as I hate to say it, things just don’t look the same this time. 
In Nov 2010 by this point (even earlier I think) Met office were very bullish about a severe onset, alarmingly so almost. Same in 2018, their confidence was undeniably obvious. 
What we have at the moment is unchanged forecasts from Met office and BBC in the way of a clear return to a general mild & wet onslaught..  after a cool spell ending  1st week of December. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

GFS has opened the Christmas sherry a bit early I reckon. 

Having said that the phone app has trended back colder again. After going from 3C max here on Thursday up to 6C it has now gone back to 2C. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

I sometimes look at the GFS pressure maps for Australia - just checked it out again today. They always so look weird to British eyes - “where are all the isobars?!”

A landmass the size of Western Europe and the pressure range across the entire thing is 15 mb!

Originally Posted by: Rob K