Just about sums it up. Last night’s 18z outlier was pleasing eye-candy, but the trend looks like a stronger zonal jet is coming. The current amplification might well be recurring theme though. However, plenty of runs say otherwise, so we’ll enjoy this week and see how these runs develop before we are forced to accept advent as being a boringly mild mud and muck fest.

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 

I’ll take the JMA and GFS control this morning ! 

Originally Posted by: squish 

There is (IMO) a realistic chance of 2023 being the first year ever to record all months above the 61-90 CET. The extended range output has been consistently signalling a relatively mild December. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

One thing to look for is the possibility of it turning very mild through December and January. I'm absolutely not saying it will happen, but years like 1989 and 1988 have featured highly in the analogues, as well as very cold winters like 2009. It's possible that blocking to the northeast will slowly sink southwards and block mobility across north western Europe. Therefore, we could end-up under a long fetch southwesterly for extended periods this winter. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

The GFS longer range has been solid and now ECM backtracking. As predictable as the sun coming up in the morning. We always get sucked in and then sucker punched every time. 

 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

There is (IMO) a realistic chance of 2023 being the first year ever to record all months above the 61-90 CET. The extended range output has been consistently signalling a relatively mild December.  Imagine if things were reversed and all 12 months were below it. 😇

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Dreadful Cfs run today........
 

Originally Posted by: CField 

One thing to look for is the possibility of it turning very mild through December and January. I'm absolutely not saying it will happen, but years like 1989 and 1988 have featured highly in the analogues, as well as very cold winters like 2009. It's possible that blocking to the northeast will slowly sink southwards and block mobility across north western Europe. Therefore, we could end-up under a long fetch southwesterly for extended periods this winter. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

@ Brian Gaze

I am a bit surprised to read that 61-90 hasn't been beaten every month in a year before 

1999 must have been very close indeed. Don't remember any cool months that year, it was a record breaker for warmth at the time due to consistency rather than any one month being exceptional (September was a bit notable but that's it). Later notable warm years (2006,2011,2014) did all have colder months thrown in 

March, April, July, August were all unremarkable for temperature this year and not months many would have noted as especially warm(I'm surprised July isn't below average for 61-90 tbh certainly felt it!)

Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread 

It's interesting to see that ML Graphcast model from the ECM/Google has flipped this morning, showing a mild outlook whereas 24 hours ago it was going for a cold, blocked scenario.

I suppose that goes to show that not only can ML models flip-flop, but that if the input pattern changes just slightly from that which was forecast the errors quickly compound and provide a most unreliable forecast.

Originally Posted by: Retron 

GFS op migh offer a crumb of comfort for cold….

Originally Posted by: ballamar