?? I do hope you are not trying to be provocative about a perfectly reasonable comment based on the current ensembles. If you see otherwise just put forward what different scenario you see in the models. That would be fine with me. Only I am currently seeing a 5-6 day winter cold snap with the risk of snow ,as I said.
Originally Posted by: fairweather
Not at all, in the same way as you were not trying to be condescending.
Anyway the point is that we can get excited about the weather on a weather enthusiasts’ forum. It’s not immaturity or lack of objectivity no matter how much that is insinuated.
The model output is fascinating and uncertain just now. The outlook beyond the next week or so is very much uncertain. The higher probability would be a return to something closer to average after the colder than average wintry type weather, bearing in mind it is both meteorological and astronomical autumn as I write this.
One look at that standard deviation in the ensembles in both t850hPa and 500hPa terms shows that uncertainty, more so than is often the case. Call it FI if you wish. The bottom line is there are hints in “FI” but in a probability game there are other realistic albeit lesser probabilities. If you can’t see that just look at the ECM 12z output.
On a final note, people get excited about the prospect of snow, it’s not wrong or something to be patronising about.
Edited by user
27 November 2023 19:04:02
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Reason: Not specified