WX summary - temps in week 1 quite mild across NW Europe with a steep temp gradient to very cold in E Russia. In week 2 the gradient flattens out, only just above freezing for Russia (unusual to say the least) but with a tongue of colder air picked out by the mountainous areas of Europe (Carpathians, Alps, even Pyrenees) and their neighbourhoods. Pptn in two areas in week 1, N Atlantic incl N Scotland and a band from France to Spain. Both these areas move a little S-wards in week 2.
GFS Op - LP 995mb tracking across England tomorrow, replaced by HP 1040mb Hampshire Fri 15th, staying around with SW-lies for Scotland until Wed 20th when the HP departs to C Atlantic 1050mb giving Britain N-ly gales for two days. The HP then slowly re-establishes though rather more located to the SW, and the period through to Wed 27th has strong wind flow from points between SW and NW (but still mild) according to exact positions of HP near SW Britain and LP near/over Norway.
ECM - compared to GFS, the initial LP is a day later to move away, and the HP a day later to establish. When the HP arrives it's broader, less localised to Britain and strong enough to deflect any N-lies to the other side of the N Sea. But in the end it agrees with GFS on a strong zonal W-ly.
GEFS - a little cooler with some rain around Thu 14th then very mild and dry around Mon 18th. Most ens members agree on a steep drop in temp Wed 20th, some like the control run taking this down to 10C below norm while many others treat the cooling as a blip and regain mildness almost immediately i.e. no agreement after this date. More rain in more runs shown from Thu 21st than was the case yesterday, most of the rain in the S & W.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl