theweatheroutlook

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nsrobins
09 December 2023 07:46:08
Theres no definitive change in the longer term although the UK high might not get that ‘high’ at least to start.
The pick has to be GEM this morning. I’d take that.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
+1
CField
09 December 2023 09:34:56

Theres no definitive change in the longer term although the UK high might not get that ‘high’ at least to start.
The pick has to be GEM this morning. I’d take that.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

GEM and ECM have been pretty aligned recently but big differences for today at least....
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
Ally Pally Snowman
09 December 2023 09:41:01
Maybe a step back this morning from the pre Christmas cold spell especially from the ECM ensembles.  Both BBC monthly and Met Office Monthly underwhelming.  Hmmm!
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
The Beast from the East
09 December 2023 10:24:49
All so predictable. The models tease and then as we get closer it all flattens out.  I give up. Roll on those warm spring days and sunshine
 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
doctormog
09 December 2023 10:31:10
The GFS op runs have been remarkably consistent in showing some form of Arctic northerly in the days before Christmas in the last day or so. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues and will be evident when it comes into the range of the other models. The period in question seems to be around the 21st to 23rd.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Brian Gaze
09 December 2023 10:56:23
😉

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Ally Pally Snowman
09 December 2023 11:24:56

All so predictable. The models tease and then as we get closer it all flattens out.  I give up. Roll on those warm spring days and sunshine
 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



The 6z is the poorest GFS for awhile.  Scrooge has turned up today.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
09 December 2023 11:55:40
ECM ENS postage stamps showing MSLP from all 50 perturbations and the control run are now available from the chart viewer, but you'll need to be logged in with an ad free account.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhrens.aspx 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
White Meadows
09 December 2023 12:13:13
Christmas Day just creeping into view today. Looking like a standard westerly regime/ mild with grey skies is still the favoured setup by a long way at the moment. 
 
+2
doctormog
09 December 2023 13:06:07
So it was the GFS 06z control that went for the potent sharp blast in the 21st to 23rd timescale this time: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSC00EU06_282_1.png 

I would say there is a decent chance such a scenario will be shown again in one of the next few operational runs too.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Ally Pally Snowman
09 December 2023 13:11:10
GEFS losing the cold signal though. And with the Pros not seeing much of anything interesting I'm losing my optimism this morning.  Brian's call looking like a good one atm.


UserPostedImage
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
nsrobins
09 December 2023 15:51:32

So it was the GFS 06z control that went for the potent sharp blast in the 21st to 23rd timescale this time: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSC00EU06_282_1.png 

I would say there is a decent chance such a scenario will be shown again in one of the next few operational runs too.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Agreed. We shouldn’t be too hopeful of the patterns ‘delivering’ around the big day but the chances are higher this year than they’ve been for several. 
The chase is what makes it so engaging.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
+1
Rob K
09 December 2023 16:10:14
The 0Z GEFS looked quite encouraging for a coldish spell around Christmas. The 6Z not so much. 

But we all know the GFS sometimes drops a signla only to pick up on it again a day or two later, so all is not lost.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Quantum
09 December 2023 16:43:43
So this idea of taking HP to greenland and putting the UK in a northerly influence around the 19th: I'm fairly confident this will become a 'thing' at some point. The models will eventually select it and run with it.

But will there then be a downgrade and a toppler/nothingburger. Quite possibly. I think a rollercoaster ride is soon to begin.
 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
nsrobins
09 December 2023 16:58:34

So this idea of taking HP to greenland and putting the UK in a northerly influence around the 19th: I'm fairly confident this will become a 'thing' at some point. The models will eventually select it and run with it.

But will there then be a downgrade and a toppler/nothingburger. Quite possibly. I think a rollercoaster ride is soon to begin.
 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 



Possibly, but GFS is like a dog with a bone at the moment. All good fun.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Brian Gaze
09 December 2023 17:43:30
Watching how it plays out will be very interesting. Colder options remain very possible this winter, but at this stage you'd also not discount an 1989 (or whichever year it was) scenario with high pressure sitting just to the south of the UK for extended periods. I think we can already rule out 2023-24 being the coldest winter on record. Can we rule out it being the mildest?
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
David M Porter
09 December 2023 17:55:55

Watching how it plays out will be very interesting. Colder options remain very possible this winter, but at this stage you'd also not discount an 1989 (or whichever year it was) scenario with high pressure sitting just to the south of the UK for extended periods. I think we can already rule out 2023-24 being the coldest winter on record. Can we rule out it being the mildest?

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



IIRC the set-up you speak of was in place for much of early 2022 as well, Brian. That was why there was such a drought problem in parts of England through much of last year, especially during the summer.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
johncs2016
09 December 2023 18:02:05

Watching how it plays out will be very interesting. Colder options remain very possible this winter, but at this stage you'd also not discount an 1989 (or whichever year it was) scenario with high pressure sitting just to the south of the UK for extended periods. I think we can already rule out 2023-24 being the coldest winter on record. Can we rule out it being the mildest?

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



I know that you are the only person on my own official list of YouTubers (which also includes Gavin P. and Mark Vogan) to have gone for a milder than average winter, but I also know that this wasn't by a very big margin.

Meanwhile, everyone else on that list has gone for an average or slightly colder than average winter which means that if this winter does end up with any overall extremes in temperatures, everybody's forecast for that is then going to be a complete bust regardless of whether it ends up being extremely cold overall, or extremely mild overall.

It might be more interesting to see what the cnce are of that happening.

 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
+1
Gusty
09 December 2023 18:55:45

Agreed. We shouldn’t be too hopeful of the patterns ‘delivering’ around the big day but the chances are higher this year than they’ve been for several. 
The chase is what makes it so engaging.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



I think it was only 2 years ago that the chase went right up to T72 ?

With regard to the models at the moment it all feels like a bit of a NW'ly based cold snap for a couple of days ahead of a topple for Christmas. We shall see though. 

 
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
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Rob K
09 December 2023 19:42:02
ECM 12Z looks promising at 240, or maybe that's just my hopecasting!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
fairweather
09 December 2023 19:59:35

The GFS op runs have been remarkably consistent in showing some form of Arctic northerly in the days before Christmas in the last day or so. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues and will be evident when it comes into the range of the other models. The period in question seems to be around the 21st to 23rd.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Yes, seems that way. Certainly wouldn't be ruling out a cold spell emerging close to Christmas and I think more chance of that than mild and wet like now.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
ballamar
09 December 2023 22:46:38
The GFS has an insanely strong block in the mid Atlantic - really could play havoc with the jet stream and make some unusual patterns in our weather
CField
09 December 2023 23:01:42
18z better trend for cold especially for the South east ...could be some pre Xmas flurries like 1980 if I remember right....I remember unexpected heavy snow showers on the Friday with BBC forecasting snow coming in from the east for the Saturday only for it to arrive as light rain....
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
+1
tallyho_83
10 December 2023 00:16:33
CFSv2 now shows average temperatures for UK over December and below and well below for all of Scandinavia and Baltics when a few weeks back the CFS monthly was going for an exceptionally warm December with most of Europe especially the N and E were due to some 2-3c above average (bathed in dark orange and red anomalies) yet look how that CFSv2 anomaly turned out - because Scandinavia in particular as well as many parts of N . Europe have seen well below average temperatures for weeks now.

See below - well what's the point of the CFS seeing as it updates daily anyway?

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd2/euT2mMonInd1.gif

UserPostedImage 

 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


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