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Joe Bloggs
16 December 2023 09:55:30

Yes, very concerning to see ECM op stick to its guns and the dreaded high from the south, if the op doesnt change this evening then I think you may need to start publishing links to the Samaritans. The netweather crowd likely to commit collective meltdown
 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



For my nerves I like to stick to the very well verified TWO proverb - “if one of the big three is a miserable bast*ard, it’s usually the one that ends up being correct” 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
doctormog
16 December 2023 09:56:11
It (the ECM scenario) is not “very concerning”, it has always been one of a range of possibilities and remains that way given the timescale. The fact that a White Christmas remains a possibility at this stage is encouraging. It will be several more days before we know whether it is likely, not this evening.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+1
The Beast from the East
16 December 2023 10:11:03
ICON 06z looks better, GFS so far the same
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Saint Snow
16 December 2023 10:14:03

NIMBY POST

I think, today, I have seen my favourite ever chart for snow here. Ever.

P27 of the 00z GFS. It has absolutely gone off on one. Don’t think I’ve ever seen one better. It almost looks impossible - atmospheric physics will not have allowed this scenario to play out many times in the past. Absolutely copious amounts of snow for large parts of the country - a genuine blizzard. Shame it’s so theoretical !  

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP27EU00_258_2.png 
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP27EU00_258_1.png 

 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



It's sure a thing of beauty!!

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
+1
Joe Bloggs
16 December 2023 10:21:20

It's sure a thing of beauty!!

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



Lake effect Irish Sea snow, temps comfortably below freezing, severe NW’ly gales. Deep drifting snow. Complete and utter chaos.

The dream. 🤣

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
The Beast from the East
16 December 2023 10:21:37
A relief to see GFS op still ok, lets keep those heights suppressed over Iberia, but ECM is so different and sadly usually correct, at least UKMO is the coldest run today
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
ballamar
16 December 2023 10:32:08

A relief to see GFS op still ok, lets keep those heights suppressed over Iberia, but ECM is so different and sadly usually correct, at least UKMO is the coldest run today

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



no it’s not, strange statement 
Hungry Tiger
16 December 2023 10:41:39

Personally, I've always considered a white Christmas to only happen when there is any real amount of snow lying on the ground on 25th Dec, no matter whether or not any snow actually falls on that day.

IIRC we didn't have any snow falling here on Xmas Day in either 2009 or 2010, but there was still a great deal of snow on the ground on both occasions so both were white Christmases as far as I was concerned.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 



Exactly how I see it. There was a uniform snow cover in my part of the country on December 2010 and in December 1981 on Christmas day so that represented a white Xmas as far as I was concerned. Also in December 1970.


 
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Downpour
16 December 2023 11:14:21
Looks mild if not very mild for the populous areas of the UK on and around Christmas Day. Some modelling implies snowfall on the top of Cairngorm, where nobody lives. Many in the populous SE quadrant will nevertheless be delighted with a dry benign day to walk to and from the pub for Christmas luncheon. Could this break the series of rainy Christmas days, which has been the case in London for four or five years running?
Chingford
London E4
147ft
doctormog
16 December 2023 11:20:37

Looks mild if not very mild for the populous areas of the UK on and around Christmas Day. Some modelling implies snowfall on the top of Cairngorm, where nobody lives. Many in the populous SE quadrant will nevertheless be delighted with a dry benign day to walk to and from the pub for Christmas luncheon. Could this break the series of rainy Christmas days, which has been the case in London for four or five years running?

Originally Posted by: Downpour 



If you think that only some modelling implies snow above 4000ft on Christmas Day it just shows you cannot read or understand the charts. Feel free to ask for guidance as there are lots of people here who can help you.
 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+5
Downpour
16 December 2023 11:30:49

If you think that only some modelling implies snow above 4000ft on Christmas Day it just shows you cannot read or understand the charts. Feel free to ask for guidance as there are lots of people here who can help you.
 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Why the patronising tone? I can and have read the models. They imply meaningful snowfall for the high ground in the NW quadrant, not so much elsewhere. We can see whether I’m right in my analysis. As I have said before, I look at the balance of the modelling, not single runs nor individual models. You do differently. Fine. But I suspect there is some wishcasting at work. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
+2
doctormog
16 December 2023 11:35:56

Why the patronising tone? I can and have read the models. They imply meaningful snowfall for the high ground in the NW quadrant, not so much elsewhere. We can see whether I’m right in my analysis. As I have said before, I look at the balance of the modelling, not single runs nor individual modelYou do differently. Fine. But I suspect there is some wishcasting at work. 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 




No, I was just saying that you were incorrect when you said that some models implied snow over 4000ft on Christmas Day. If you think that is correct I can show you many charts to show why you are factually incorrect. I’m not being patronising I am just informing you that you are wrong. It’s not the same thing. 

Unless you mean some models imply snow over 4000ft as well as more widespread at lower levels across a swathe of the U.K. then that is fair enough albeit a strange oversight to focus on only over 4000 feet. If you genuinely believe that models show snow only over 4000 feet on Christmas Day then I will reiterate my statement that you don’t understand the model output.

Incidentally you did not say “meaningful snow on high ground in the NW quadrant”, you stated on top of Cairngorm.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+2
fullybhoy
16 December 2023 11:50:35

Why the patronising tone? I can and have read the models. They imply meaningful snowfall for the high ground in the NW quadrant, not so much elsewhere. We can see whether I’m right in my analysis. As I have said before, I look at the balance of the modelling, not single runs nor individual models. You do differently. Fine. But I suspect there is some wishcasting at work. 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 



Maybe a Geography lesson then………as Cairngorm is not in the NW Quadrant 👍🏻
Aldo
Glasgow 165m/asl
 
+3
Matty H
16 December 2023 11:54:22

For my nerves I like to stick to the very well verified TWO proverb - “if one of the big three is a miserable bast*ard, it’s usually the one that ends up being correct” 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



As sure as eggs are eggs and as certain as David Porter “recalling” something in a post. 

However….. there’s always that time snow does come and one of the mild models will have been incorrect at some stage. 

Still interest for those oop North, currently. 
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
CField
16 December 2023 12:15:50
UserPostedImage still 3 days out from being concrete
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
16 December 2023 14:16:53

UserPostedImage still 3 days out from being concrete

Originally Posted by: CField 

Not bothered about concrete.  I just want snow.  


I’ll get me coat!  😊
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
+6
Brian Gaze
16 December 2023 15:17:52
Today's 12Z runs are possibly the most important ever. 

😂😂😂
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+2
squish
16 December 2023 15:42:32
Good start with ICON compared to 00z 
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
MBrothers
16 December 2023 15:47:05

Today's 12Z runs are possibly the most important ever. 

😂😂😂

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

will there be any phasing involved today? 
Gandalf The White
16 December 2023 16:20:07

Today's 12Z runs are possibly the most important ever. 

😂😂😂

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Can you put that in a separate thread and ‘sticky’ it…?😉
Then three more posts for 00z, 06z and 18z…
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


The Beast from the East
16 December 2023 17:33:42
Meteciel seems to be having problems. UKMO looks ok, but cant see GFS
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
16 December 2023 17:34:58

Good start with ICON compared to 00z 

Originally Posted by: squish 



Superb ICON, totally different to the morning run which was like ECM. Hope thats a good omen for ECM
 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Saint Snow
16 December 2023 18:01:48
GFS a bit of a tease - plenty of snow Xmas Eve for the northern two-thirds of the country, then a cold few hours under clear skies, before rain for lowland areas (a lot of snow for the hills)

Very close to being epic, though.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Brian Gaze
16 December 2023 18:04:33
GEFS 12Z shorts look quite promising. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx 
 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+1
Downpour
16 December 2023 18:26:33

No, I was just saying that you were incorrect when you said that some models implied snow over 4000ft on Christmas Day. If you think that is correct I can show you many charts to show why you are factually incorrect. I’m not being patronising I am just informing you that you are wrong. It’s not the same thing. 

Unless you mean some models imply snow over 4000ft as well as more widespread at lower levels across a swathe of the U.K. then that is fair enough albeit a strange oversight to focus on only over 4000 feet. If you genuinely believe that models show snow only over 4000 feet on Christmas Day then I will reiterate my statement that you don’t understand the model output.

Incidentally you did not say “meaningful snow on high ground in the NW quadrant”, you stated on top of Cairngorm.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Nothing in my post was wrong. Some models imply snow on the top of Cairngorm. Less so elsewhere, and certainly not for the vast majority of UK population. Mild is the form horse. Let’s see who is right. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft

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