I guess one positive is that if it has changed so much over the past 12/24 hours (and it certainly has!) then it coukd in theory shift back again. I think this evening will give a better indication if this is a wobble or a stronger trend away from cold.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

That was the message last night as well. The GFS 00z ensembles show a 15-20c spread in 850 hPa temperature for Xmas Eve, a week from now.  Some variants bring the cold south 2 days earlier, some seem not to bring it south at all.

When we seem to be bang in the battleground I don’t think any firm conclusions are possible, and probably not until the end of this week, unless much stronger signals emerge, one way or the other.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Do you find the weekend charts to be less consistent than those on weekdays, or does it just seem that way to me?  Come Monday mornings there often seems more correction than other days.  .  

Originally Posted by: Caz 

In the bleak midwinter just played on our Sonos. It felt very appropriate. Perhaps not in the way intended. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

ECM has been consistently woeful, ICON follows it as usual. Oh dear, another year to strike off, sadly I dont remember 1981, was hoping for one white xmas before I die, looks like it will never happen

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Good grief. You should arrange a meet-up with Richard from Aberdeen.

But make sure you have the number for the Samaritans on speed dial…..😉


As is quite regularly the case, we have two sharply different air masses swirling around, interacting with each other.  When even the experts at the Met Office don’t have a clear view of how things will evolve, I really don’t understand the despondency when Xmas is still 8 days away.  The charts change over those timescales, sometimes significantly.

After too many years playing this game I’m afraid I don’t put much faith in the output more than a few days ahead; the longer range charts are little better than guesswork.
 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Good grief. You should arrange a meet-up with Richard from Aberdeen.

But make sure you have the number for the Samaritans on speed dial…..😉


As is quite regularly the case, we have two sharply different air masses swirling around, interacting with each other.  When even the experts at the Met Office don’t have a clear view of how things will evolve, I really don’t understand the despondency when Xmas is still 8 days away.  The charts change over those timescales, sometimes significantly.

After too many years playing this game I’m afraid I don’t put much faith in the output more than a few days ahead; the longer range charts are little better than guesswork.
 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Whatever happens with this spell, it looks odds on to turn very mild again after Xmas, there is nothing worse than a 3 day cold snap. Just better off being mild all the way. At least the days will start getting longer on Friday. I hate the darkness. 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Whatever happens with this spell, it looks odds on to turn very mild again after Xmas, there is nothing worse than a 3 day cold snap. Just better off being mild all the way. At least the days will start getting longer on Friday. I hate the darkness. 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

there is nothing worse than a 3 day cold snap.

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

I prefer this summary! 😃



Spaghetti anyone? 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Whatever happens with this spell, it looks odds on to turn very mild again after Xmas, there is nothing worse than a 3 day cold snap. Just better off being mild all the way. At least the days will start getting longer on Friday. I hate the darkness. 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

I've been keeping an eye on it, and the MetO automated now has a whole week of double-digit highs here - quite remarkable for mid December. Even moreso are the night time temperatures... the highs are equivalent to mid-March, on average, and the nights more like mid-May!
https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/dec.jpg 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

Normal then

Originally Posted by: CField 

This illustrates how the dice are loaded against cold winters.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

The words from your post this morning which triggered this protracted exchange:

“Looks mild if not very mild for the populous areas of the UK on and around Christmas Day. Some modelling implies snowfall on the top of Cairngorm, where nobody lives.”

Those words clearly imply that snow will be restricted to the highest ground in Scotland. Indeed your words suggest that some modelling doesn’t even imply snow for the highest ground even in Scotland.

As for ‘mild or very mild’, as of this morning there was little to no support for ‘mild if not very mild’ weather for populous areas. For some days the output has signalled average to cool.

As this thread is for discussion of the model output I am somewhat surprised that someone of your experience should be misinterpreting the charts.

🙂

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

It looks like my forecast will be correct, sadly. As much as you and I might wish otherwise. 

The vast majority of the UK population are looking at another dismal day – with rain now in the forecast for many. Our chances of a dry day again seem to be dwindling. 

There's no dressing it up, away from the high ground in the NW quadrant, Christmas looks deeply uninspiring. 

Let's hope for better runs towards the New Year. 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 

It will be whatever it will be, but your ‘forecast’ wasn’t based on a calm assessment of the model output, which is the point.

If you were to forecast mild and changeable for every day of winter you’d be right a lot more often than wrong, but I’m not sure that has much going for it?

Anyway, back to the model output, if you look at various latitudes from north to south in the ensemble suite you can see the probability of cold is higher further north and much lower for the south coast, meaning there’s still uncertainty about where the colder/milder boundary will lie.  I would agree that the ensembles are currently trending towards a less cold outcome, but it’s still shifting from run to run.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

It looks like my forecast will be correct, sadly. As much as you and I might wish otherwise. 

The vast majority of the UK population are looking at another dismal day – with rain now in the forecast for many. Our chances of a dry day again seem to be dwindling. 

There's no dressing it up, away from the high ground in the NW quadrant, Christmas looks deeply uninspiring. 

Let's hope for better runs towards the New Year. 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 

This illustrates how the dice are loaded against cold winters. Likewise, the reverse is true in spring when people start "speculating" whether 30C will be reached during the coming summer. On top of all of this, I have always thought a strong El Nino reduces the chance of cold winters in the UK / W. Europe.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze