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Saint Snow
18 December 2023 10:20:47
Output has waxed and waned in terms of snow risk over that 23rd/24th/25th period.

Xmas Eve has generally been the most promising day - but even then, some runs of all models have shown the high to our south being too close to allow snow for anywhere away from Scottish mountains.

Current output from most models this morning is leaning towards Xmas Eve (and into the early hours of Xmas Day) having a strong chance of heavy snow showers across a swathe of the UK north of a line from Lincoln to the Brecon Beacons. Mostly marginal at low levels, but places with elevation would see some accumulations.

This from today's 6z, but it's a very similar picture to the 0z (slight upgrade)

UserPostedImage


The 0z's from ECM, UKM, Icon all have a broadly similar set-up (mid-North Atlantic ridge, low the NE, leading to a cool/coldish and unstable NW'ly flow)

Not all doom and gloom!!

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Saint Snow
18 December 2023 10:23:36
And before some of the southern contingent spit the dummy, the 6z delivers a belated present for them, too  😄

UserPostedImage

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
+1
ballamar
18 December 2023 10:24:23
Nice little slider for Christmas night / Boxing Day - consistent it is not on the op run
CField
18 December 2023 10:48:09

Still interesting to see how things develop in the coming weeks. At the moment I would say the chance of a notably mild (as opposed to mild or quite mild) winter is very much on the table. A cold one is still possible, but I know where I'd be placing the majority of my chips right now.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

I think as you say a notably mild one is a possibility but increasing mindset now this winter will be a back loaded one...maybe a Feb 78?
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
Gusty
18 December 2023 11:13:38
Loving the 6z. Its not out of the realms of possibility. Recent output has tended to place a ridge over the UK on the big day itself (this has snuffed out convective potential), however this little block could be just enough to provide the resistance needed to give a cheeky slider as the first push from the Atlantic occurs.
 
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
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tallyho_83
18 December 2023 11:45:33

Not much Christmas cheer on offer this morning, is there?

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



I know - hence looking at developments in stratosphere @10hpa as this at least will give us something to talk about and discuss and some hope from a cold and snow perspective....?
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Brian Gaze
18 December 2023 12:00:34
GEFS 06Z still has a big spread around Christmas.


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Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Crepuscular Ray
18 December 2023 12:19:58
GFS 06Z not too bad. Looks cold or chilly through to around 29th and an unsettled cold/chilly New Year. Any snow mostly on northern hills though.
For me that is much more preferable to mild, cloudy SW dross 🤔

 
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
Gandalf The White
18 December 2023 12:53:00

GEFS 06Z still has a big spread around Christmas.


UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Noticeable that there’s been an uptick in the number of perturbations dipping down to -5c to -8c on Xmas Eve and holding into Xmas Day.  This is still not resolved - which is to say that a snow free or snowy day in the south both remain as options.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Downpour
18 December 2023 13:45:45

Noticeable that there’s been an uptick in the number of perturbations dipping down to -5c to -8c on Xmas Eve and holding into Xmas Day.  This is still not resolved - which is to say that a snow free or snowy day in the south both remain as options.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



Highly unlikely it will snow in the south on 25 December, is my reading. 

Such an outcome lacks significant support, and would be a very unexpected (although not entirely impossible) evolution. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
UncleAlbert
18 December 2023 14:54:52

Loving the 6z. Its not out of the realms of possibility. Recent output has tended to place a ridge over the UK on the big day itself (this has snuffed out convective potential), however this little block could be just enough to provide the resistance needed to give a cheeky slider as the first push from the Atlantic occurs.
 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 



With the high spread on the big day the 06z Op looks about as interesting as it could possibly get for Southern areas.  The prescription intensity on Christmas Day evening looks pretty high alongside dew points at or just above zero, so maybe all on a knife edge.  Also interesting is the large divergence in GEFS members with almost half and half between cold and mild.
Rob K
18 December 2023 15:27:20
Well after my post this morning the 6Z GFS delivers a bit of a surprise. Chance of a late White Christmas even in the south.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Quantum
18 December 2023 15:41:06

Well after my post this morning the 6Z GFS delivers a bit of a surprise. Chance of a late White Christmas even in the south.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


ICON12Z is back to the flat pattern of yesterdays GFS18Z.

Almost amusingly uncertain.
 
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
warrenb
18 December 2023 15:41:07
Give it 30 minutes and I suspect that will be gone 😀
Tonbridge 45m 
Saint Snow
18 December 2023 15:41:18

Well after my post this morning the 6Z GFS delivers a bit of a surprise. Chance of a late White Christmas even in the south.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 




I'm sure it'll be gone on the 12z!!

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
ballamar
18 December 2023 16:24:31
Strong WNW flow on 12z could be fruitful for midlands if any disturbances develop. Another slant on what could happen.
Saint Snow
18 December 2023 16:30:25
"Everyone off the train again..."

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
18 December 2023 16:42:37

With the high spread on the big day the 06z Op looks about as interesting as it could possibly get for Southern areas.  The prescription intensity on Christmas Day evening looks pretty high alongside dew points at or just above zero, so maybe all on a knife edge.  Also interesting is the large divergence in GEFS members with almost half and half between cold and mild.

Originally Posted by: UncleAlbert 



Anti-depressants for all?
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2
Heavy Weather 2013
18 December 2023 17:17:27
Logged on and saw that the moaning thread had the first post. As expected, income in here and no joy from tbe 12z lol
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Ally Pally Snowman
18 December 2023 17:20:38
Yep looking generally mild and rubbish now for Christmas.  It hasn't been the GFS finest hour recently.  I think its time to start the Christmas drinking early 🍺 🍻 🍺 🍻. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Saint Snow
18 December 2023 17:22:16

Yep looking generally mild and rubbish now for Christmas.  It hasn't been the GFS finest hour recently.  I think its time to start the Christmas drinking early 🍺 🍻 🍺 🍻. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 




Don't worry, just wait a run or two.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
+1
nsrobins
18 December 2023 17:24:47
If I may be allowed to be something other than dismissive, the Scandy height rise has again flickered into the beam of the GFS OP. Probably only a very low chance, but given it was an option a few days ago not to be discounted. 
 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
+1
Gusty
18 December 2023 17:46:10

If I may be allowed to be something other than dismissive, the Scandy height rise has again flickered into the beam of the GFS OP. Probably only a very low chance, but given it was an option a few days ago not to be discounted. 
 

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Noticed that. 😉
Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Brian Gaze
18 December 2023 17:56:39
Christmas still isn't a done deal, but the op runs were disappointing, although ECM is still to come.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

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