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doctormog
19 December 2023 09:39:45

yes, my mild if not very mild forecast looks like it might be right, despite the flaming I received from the Gruesome TWOsome. 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 



What a load of absolute twaddle. You misinterpreted (misrepresented?) the model output at the time.and didn't like it when it was pointed out and backed up with evidence. You cannot days later claim that when the output has changed that your analysis of the output back then was correct when almost everyone could see it was wrong.

In summary the output has changed.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+7
Saint Snow
19 December 2023 09:44:26

yes, my mild if not very mild forecast looks like it might be right, despite the flaming I received from the Gruesome TWOsome. 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 



Again, this is the Model Output thread. To discuss Model Output. 

It isn't the "I'm going to post my own forecast that ignores most of the current model output because I have my own agenda" thread.

Please don't go round patting yourself on the back for 'your mild forecast' being right, when your only methodology is to try to piss on anyone's bonfire who might get some snowy weather, just because "the most populous region of the UK" [yawn] was never looking like joining any suggested fun.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
+6
Gandalf The White
19 December 2023 09:58:46

yes, my mild if not very mild forecast looks like it might be right, despite the flaming I received from the Gruesome TWOsome. 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 



It’s odd that you are incapable of acknowledging that this thread is about discussing the model output and that your ‘forecast’  was not based on a balanced assessment of the model output when you made your comment.

As Brian’s post of the postage stamps showed, perfectly clearly, is that the UK is still sitting in the battleground between two different air masses.

You didn’t receive a ‘flaming’ (sic), you were very politely reminded why your ‘forecast’ was not supported by the evidence from the models.  That’s still the case this morning, whether you have your blinkers on or otherwise.  It may be mild in the south, it may be near average, it may be cooler than average.  But the south is only a small part of the country - irrespective of population densities….

🙂
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+3
MRayner
19 December 2023 10:16:00
Winters back on again on 06Zgfs run 🤣, unreal changes still happening at , now a fairly short time frame. BBC have cut their losses by putting out a video about a white xmas saying we don’t know !! Stating the obvious, it’s a battle between the cold and warm air masses. As already said by others, a nasty windy spell on its way.😣
Location Whisky 🥃 country, Cragganmore ,Moray, 440 AMSL
Charmhills
19 December 2023 10:28:08

What a load of absolute twaddle. You misinterpreted (misrepresented?) the model output at the time.and didn't like it when it was pointed out and backed up with evidence. You cannot days later claim that when the output has changed that your analysis of the output back then was correct when almost everyone could see it was wrong.

In summary the output has changed.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Indeed.

A couple of days ago the output was leaning rather cold or cold with a chance of snow for some Northern areas of the UK.

Now we seem to be looking at a mild and rather damp Christmas for most.



 
Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
The Beast from the East
19 December 2023 10:29:08

Winters back on again on 06Zgfs run 🤣, unreal changes still happening at , now a fairly short time frame. BBC have cut their losses by putting out a video about a white xmas saying we don’t know !! Stating the obvious, it’s a battle between the cold and warm air masses. As already said by others, a nasty windy spell on its way.😣

Originally Posted by: MRayner 



So annoying the jet pushes north on Xmas eve or we could have had something more interesting. But this run pushes it back down again quickly allowing something to build further north
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
19 December 2023 10:31:59
looking through the GEFS at 96hrs, there are still some runs that keep the jet south. Amazing divergence at such close range
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Russwirral
19 December 2023 10:58:11
wouldn't be out of the question if somewhere ended up with a boxing day 2014 type scenario with cold air just to the north and features skirting along the south, something white on the northern edge is very possible, and wouldn't be visible in the charts at this stage

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
polarwind
19 December 2023 10:58:19

 Its very interesting for me that the Jetstream path over the North Atlantic has generally been recently and is short term forecasted to be diving into Europe in a ESE/SE direction.
It would be interesting to see a record and analysis of the general history of the trajectory of the Jetstream over the last few decades.
Has this been done and available to ponder over?
"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
+2
The Beast from the East
19 December 2023 11:09:22
Control attempting to build a ridge. 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
19 December 2023 11:12:15
Pert 8 is something we need to look for

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=8&ech=192&mode=0&carte=0&ext=0 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Brian Gaze
19 December 2023 11:16:31
ECM 50+1 doesn't offer much support for that.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Downpour
19 December 2023 12:17:37

Indeed.

A couple of days ago the output was leaning rather cold or cold with a chance of snow for some Northern areas of the UK.

Now we seem to be looking at a mild and rather damp Christmas for most.



 

Originally Posted by: Charmhills 



The totality of the output never suggested otherwise for most. Granted it did dangle the carrot of something more wintry in the NW quadrant, as I recognised at the time, but never for the vast majority of the UK population. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
+1
Saint Snow
19 December 2023 12:25:19
And a cold/snowy spell aint worth jack unless it includes the 'populous' south-east...

😒

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Downpour
19 December 2023 12:33:47

And a cold/snowy spell aint worth jack unless it includes the 'populous' south-east...

😒

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



I didn't say that. But, in any case, the SE quadrant is not the same as SE England. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Gandalf The White
19 December 2023 12:54:40

The totality of the output never suggested otherwise for most. Granted it did dangle the carrot of something more wintry in the NW quadrant, as I recognised at the time, but never for the vast majority of the UK population. 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 



As the saying goes, you are entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts.  What you have written is untrue.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+3
Downpour
19 December 2023 14:00:49

As the saying goes, you are entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts.  What you have written is untrue.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



At no stage did the totality of the modelling imply widespread snowfall for most. That is simply my interpretation of the modelling. You clearly interpreted the modelling differently, which is fair enough. Yet it seems my interpretation will be proved right, as much as I would wish otherwise. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Downpour
19 December 2023 14:02:17

ECM 50+1 doesn't offer much support for that.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Indeed Brian. Those of us who have been sceptical of a meaningful cold spell look set to be proved correct, sadly. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Brian Gaze
19 December 2023 14:39:09
The MOGREPS 00Z - 06G combi certainly calls into question whether southern Britain will even have a "seasonal" Christmas this year. However, there is still time for change.

06Z below, see my earlier post for the 00Z runs.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Gandalf The White
19 December 2023 14:51:00

The MOGREPS 00Z - 06G combi certainly calls into question whether southern Britain will even have a "seasonal" Christmas this year. However, there is still time for change.

06Z below, see my earlier post for the 00Z runs.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



For the Northern Home Counties I make that: 
Cold: 1
Average: 9 (around 8-9c)
Mild: 2
Very mild: 2
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
19 December 2023 14:52:02

Indeed Brian. Those of us who have been sceptical of a meaningful cold spell look set to be proved correct, sadly. 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 



Thos of us predicting a mild or very mild Xmas look set to be proved very wrong….
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


White Meadows
19 December 2023 16:07:25

Thos of us predicting a mild or very mild Xmas look set to be proved very wrong….

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Not cold though either? So which is it?
Anyone walking into this thread looking for a steer on the Christmas outlook are gonna be none the wiser. 
 
David M Porter
19 December 2023 16:16:06

Not cold though either? So which is it?
Anyone walking into this thread looking for a steer on the Christmas outlook are gonna be none the wiser. 
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



I think that, being objective about it, the chances of colder weather and possibly some snow will probably be a bit higher the further north one happens to be in the UK early next week. At least, that would be my interpretation of the model output that is currently available.

That may change yet again, of course. There has been as much, if not more, flip-flopping in the models this month as I can recall throughout the duration of last winter.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
ballamar
19 December 2023 16:32:16
Sneaky little Easterly on GFS ! Blink and you’ll miss though 
Brian Gaze
19 December 2023 16:33:53
Prizes for virtually everyone if GFS 12Z is right.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
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