WX temp charts less good for coldies than yesterday. Week 1 has all of Europe (exc Scandinavia) well above norm and Siberia very much so, and the advance of freezing weather in week 2 more muted than shown yesterday - somewhat cooler into E Germany and the Scottish Highlands but the freezing weather is still E of Poland. Pptn in week 1 from the Atlantic across Britain and into N Europe; in week 2 much the same, but heavier and additionally down the Adriatic.
GFS Op - HP mid-Atlantic and LP Scandinavia with pressure gradient giving the present storm. Over the next few day, up to Wed 27th the HP moves SE to the Med and declines while the LP moves NE and fills, so a mild and not extreme W-ly over Christmas. The next LP then approaches W Scotland and moves to S Ireland 970mb Sat 30th breaking up into an extended N-S trough over the N Sea with a not-very-convincing N-ly spell through to Fri 5th. Then 1030mb HP centred Cornwall but covering Britain Sat 6th Jan to finish.
ECM - differs from GFS after Wed 27th with a shallow LP in the W-lies crossing N England 990mb Thu 28th and a deeper LP further off, 965mb Faeroes Sun 31st but with strong NW-lies for all.
GEFS - very mild for Christmas Day, cooling soon after in a couple of steps to norm by Fri 29th after which any agreement between ens members breaks up; individual members either side of norm, perhaps a majority indicating colder around New Year. Rain in the S from Christmas Day onwards, some big totals in just a few runs later. In the N, esp NE, a heavy fall on Sat 23rd, more just after Christmas but becoming drier later. Chances of snow poor in the Highlands, negligible elsewhere.
Originally Posted by: DEW