WX temp charts after showing a modest advance of cold weather yesterday has gone back to mild. In week 1 all of Europe except Norway and - just about - Portugal is above normal and even the freezing weather in Russia is not extreme. In week 2 the cold weather arranges itself to cover the north, from Scotland (just) to the northern Baltic and on to Russia with a touch of deep cold in the far NE. Mild weather from S England to the Caspian Sea, just a few slightly cooler patches in mountainous areas. Looking wet for Britain in both weeks, linked to the Baltic in week 1 and to France in week 2.
GFS Op - Atlantic HP moving SE to S France and Scandinavian LP filling puts an end to NW-ly gales and ushers in a spell of mild W-lies over Christmas. On Wed 27th the Atlantic revives and projects a series of LPs across or close to Britain, looking very wet and often cool as the said LPs drag in air from the NW. (980mb Hebrides Thu 28th, 970mb S Scotland Sun 31st becoming a broad trough from the N Tue 2nd, 980mb N Ireland Thu 4th, possibly relenting Sun 7th with LP sticking mid-Atlantic and winds going round to SW)
ECM - like GFS to Thu 28th but the LP on that date runs across England 985mb and stops in the N Sea but with a weak ridge of HP appearing from the S Mon 1st, thus the opposite of GFS.
GEFS - very mild up to Christmas itself, then back to norm on Boxing Day and fair agreement between ens members for that to be the continuing outcome to Mon 1st after which many possibilities. Rain frequent and heavy from Wed 27th in S, a day or two earlier in the N, (N Scotland gets an extra burst on the 23rd) lasting to about Wed 3rd after which some signs of becoming drier. Snow row figures about 50% for Inverness, up to 25% elsewhere in Scotland and nothing for the S.
Edited by user
22 December 2023 08:26:44
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Reason: Not specified
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