theweatheroutlook

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Gandalf The White
23 December 2023 11:24:55

But then again most of didn’t expect the warming or the extreme world wide weather events that have came to fruition.

North Atlantic density due to ice melt has been talked about for a long time it could and maybe should accelerate the decrease of the momentum of the Gulf Stream.
I’ve read if it did ever stop drops of between 10 and 15 degrees in Europe or pro rota in decrease.
It’s an interesting read.
Imo there’s no need to get depressed about lack of cold it will come again 87 2010 are good examples and in the weather clock nothing in time.


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 



Indeed, warming of the planet doesn’t exclude cold spells, but it makes them increasingly less likely and less intense.

As for that heat not being transported towards NW Europe, it’s worth thinking about where that heat is going instead and, given physics will continue to want to create an equilibrium, what will the mechanism(s) be if not the ocean current?
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


doctormog
23 December 2023 11:31:03
On the subject of ensemble data, some of the day 15 ECM scenarios are a bit more interesting.

In the more reliable time frame the ensemble mean from the 06z GFS op run hints once again at the White Christmas possibilities for some northern parts:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU06_66_1.png  

The colder air is evident across many parts by the end of the day https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU06_66_34.png  

Probably not quite cold enough.

(The snow has stopped here now but the cover remains for the moment)
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Brian Gaze
23 December 2023 11:47:12

On the subject of ensemble data, some of the day 15 ECM scenarios are a bit more interesting.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



There are some crackers in the stamps at 15 days ahead and I'm not talking about the Christmas variety.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmhrens.aspx 

 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+1
Polar Low
23 December 2023 12:24:16

The bottom line is that the thermohaline circulation is a very complex system and scientists do not yet understand all the variables involved in how it functions so it’s difficult to model.
It is also probably not a constant decreased variability with warming and more a on and off with what I have read.
Not all scientists agree but a 4 percentage decrease has been cited  that’s the slow start.
The worry is at what point does it become exponential








Indeed, warming of the planet doesn’t exclude cold spells, but it makes them increasingly less likely and less intense.

As for that heat not being transported towards NW Europe, it’s worth thinking about where that heat is going instead and, given physics will continue to want to create an equilibrium, what will the mechanism(s) be if not the ocean current?

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

glenogle
23 December 2023 20:10:12
Met ukv rainfall map shows a perfectly curved cloud bank moving up the uk from 6am to 6pm tues 26th.  Is this a glitch or actually how it is being modeled? Looks odd. Haven't worked out how to link to it unfortunately 
UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m asl 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
23 December 2023 22:09:34

Met ukv rainfall map shows a perfectly curved cloud bank moving up the uk from 6am to 6pm tues 26th.  Is this a glitch or actually how it is being modeled? Looks odd. Haven't worked out how to link to it unfortunately 

Originally Posted by: glenogle 



https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/maps-and-charts/cloud-cover-map  and select time
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
glenogle
23 December 2023 22:12:57
It's the ukv maps on two model page dew. Interesting though that the ones on metoffice page look different 
UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m asl 
Saint Snow
23 December 2023 22:30:00

Its a sad state of affairs for all who love the weather how it was from the 60s to the 80s. Alex Deacon on the BBC did a little piece on the prospects of a white Christmas and stated openly how white christmases will soon be relegated to our dreams, with snowfall / snow lying incidents and duration Have fallen decade on decade and the same for Europe.

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 




In the last two winters, I've had snow on the ground here before Xmas. And that's about 200 miles further north than London (and without any altitude)

Snow is always a lottery, so getting it to align with one particular day is always going to be odds-against. Look back over the entire 20th century and you'll see. That even applies in the 60's/70's/80's.

I'll also repeat that, in my lifetime (this is my 52nd Xmas), I've seen snow falling and sticking twice, and  lying on the ground but not falling on the actual day itself three times.

So 5 what I'd personally call 'white Christmases'

And four of those five happened in the last 26 years (three in the last 19)

​​​​​​One in the preceding 25.

I'm not saying that proper cold/snowy spells overall won't become harder to get (and maybe in the longer term near-impossible) as the impacts of climate change become more apparent but making wild claims like Alex Deacon apparently has, is just silly sensationalism.

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
BJBlake
24 December 2023 00:25:18

In the last two winters, I've had snow on the ground here before Xmas. And that's about 200 miles further north than London (and without any altitude)

Snow is always a lottery, so getting it to align with one particular day is always going to be odds-against. Look back over the entire 20th century and you'll see. That even applies in the 60's/70's/80's.

I'll also repeat that, in my lifetime (this is my 52nd Xmas), I've seen snow falling and sticking twice, and  lying on the ground but not falling on the actual day itself three times.

So 5 what I'd personally call 'white Christmases'

And four of those five happened in the last 26 years (three in the last 19)

​​​​​​One in the preceding 25.

I'm not saying that proper cold/snowy spells overall won't become harder to get (and maybe in the longer term near-impossible) as the impacts of climate change become more apparent but making wild claims like Alex Deacon apparently has, is just silly sensationalism.

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

May be so Martin, or just the ironic reference to “I’m Dreaming of a White Christmas” a la Crosby fame, but the relentlessness is both anecdotal and statistical - when I was a student in Manchester, (in the 80s), the winters saw a lot more incidents of snowy weather than are seen in recent decades, and the hills were more often cloaked in white too, even from polar maritime, zonal episodes. Locally to me now, the council used to pay for snow fencing to drift the snow which reliably fell each year in East Anglia before the drifts could block the A140. By the mid 90s they realised they were wasting their money - the snow has not drifted like it used to back then since - bar the SSW event in March 2018. However, the grain of comfort lies in the increasing propensity for weaker and more amplified jet patterns (outside of super El-Nino’s), supposedly caused by the polar regions warming faster and reducing thermal gradients. We’ll see. 
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
24 December 2023 06:28:22

Surely one the mildest Christmas Eve's across the UK on record if this is correct?

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Well done good call Brian.
Rhyl 15.8c at 4am has already broken the Christmas Eve record .
 Crazy times!
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Heavy Weather 2013
24 December 2023 07:16:03

Well done good call Brian.
Rhyl 15.8c at 4am has already broken the Christmas Eve record .
 Crazy times!

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



God, that’s a hedious temperature for Christmas Eve.

 
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Jiries
24 December 2023 07:54:02

God, that’s a hedious temperature for Christmas Eve.

 

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 



So boring temp too no use with rain and wet weather fine if very sunny day like other countries get mild sunny days.  
nsrobins
24 December 2023 07:57:01
Significant number of GEFS raising heights to our N again later on, with a few decent SH options.
The chase, albeit subdued, is still on. Now someone will chip in with the fact Lance Delacroix in the Halifax, Nova Scotia lighthouse has gone home for Christmas and data return is compromised.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
+2
Ally Pally Snowman
24 December 2023 08:08:21
GEFS still has us shuffling towards a cold spell early January.  But alot of uncertainty and along way to go.  GEM and ECM still much less interested. 


UserPostedImage

 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
doctormog
24 December 2023 08:24:05
From a local perspective in the short term (i.e. tomorrow) the GFS, ECM, ICON, WRF, ARPEGE all show snow falling (or falling and settling) tomorrow afternoon. The only model I can see that does not is the UKMO hi-res. The forecasts state rain so with a day to go it’s still to early and uncertain to say whether it will be a White Christmas here. It would be interesting if we had snow on the 23rd and 25th and double figure temperatures on the 24th! 

More generally it looks unsettled in the longer term but with no real clarity if it will unsettled and cool, average or mild.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
24 December 2023 08:39:09
WX temp charts offer some encouragement to coldies this morning. From week 1 where Europe is well above norm and freezing weather is tucked up in Russia and Scandinavia to week 2 with a big extension down to the Alps. Channel coasts are significantly colder too, including Britain, with higher ground in the north also below the 0C average. Rain in week 1 heavy over Britain and across to the Baltic, in week 2, rain mainly in Spain and across to the Adriatic and pptn (some of which must be snow) widely but patchy elsewhere.

GFS Op - zonal W-lies for the next couple of days (but these cold in Scotland) but the Atlantic springs into action Wed 27th, 980mb Hebrides with trough affecting all of Britain. Although this moves away and fills quickly, a new LP swings in from the NW to 980mb S Scotland Fri 29th, developing over Scandinavia and bringing in Arctic N-lies for Mon 1st. Then there is a weak ridge of HP Wed 3rd but after a brief mild spell, any HP is back mid-Atlantic with Britain on the edge of a N-ly flow from Sat 6th.

ECM - similar until Fri 29th when the new LP is shallow and further S, 995mb S Wales on Sat 30th. A complete contrast on Mon 1st as then a ridge of HP stretches in from the SW with strong SW-lies for most of Britain, persisting, though with LP from the NW approaching Scotland later.

GEFS - temps declining by fits and starts to just below norm by Mon 1st with good ens agreement. after which the spread becomes extreme - 12C either side of norm by Sun 7th, though both op & control are on the cold side. Heavy rain fairly certain for the week beginning Wed 27th, after which still present in some ens members. Less rain (maybe snow) and cooler the further NE you go.


Reviews should continue over Christmas but timings will have to fit in with my daughter's household arrangements, so may be later.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
24 December 2023 08:44:19

GEFS still has us shuffling towards a cold spell early January.  But alot of uncertainty and along way to go.  GEM and ECM still much less interested. 

 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



GFS/GEFS do have a reputation for phantom northerlies☹
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Brian Gaze
24 December 2023 08:50:50

Well done good call Brian.
Rhyl 15.8c at 4am has already broken the Christmas Eve record .
 Crazy times!

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



I think 15.6C was the previous highest. So yet another max temperature record falls. 
​​
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Gandalf The White
24 December 2023 09:32:52
The ECM 00z op delivers a band of heavy rain and snow for a swathe of the country from the early hours of next Saturday, from Wales through the Midlands and across to East Anglia, associated with the LP tracking east along the Thames Valley.  Temperatures across that area are only 1-2c at midday.

If that were to verify then anywhere with elevation would see a significant fall, with snow falling, mixed with rain, to quite low levels.

The southern boundary is the northern Home Counties; the northern edge is North Wales across to Lincolnshire.

No doubt it will be gone or in a different position on the next run but it does show what a southerly tracking LP can produce with just slightly colder air aloft.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
doctormog
24 December 2023 09:41:11
The Beast from the East
24 December 2023 09:50:01

I think 15.6C was the previous highest. So yet another max temperature record falls. 
​​

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



If the Euroslug high gets established as shown by ECM, could be a record January as well 

 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
The Beast from the East
24 December 2023 09:51:53

GFS/GEFS do have a reputation for phantom northerlies☹

Originally Posted by: DEW 



Its reputation as a serious model has been shredded by recent events. Even the netweather loons have given up on it
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Matty H
24 December 2023 09:54:41


Imo there’s no need to get depressed about lack of cold it will come again 87 2010 are good examples and in the weather clock nothing in time.





Originally Posted by: Polar Low 



Should go without saying. Anyone who gets depressed because the weather doesn’t do what they want needs to give their head a serious wobble 🙄

Not sure whether it’s relevant or not, but my iPhone app temps have trended downward today for after Xmas 
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
+1
David M Porter
24 December 2023 10:02:55

If the Euroslug high gets established as shown by ECM, could be a record January as well 

 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



I can't see any Euroslug on the ECM, the 00z op run at least? There is HP over the continent but it looks somewhat further north to me than what it typical for the 'Euro High'.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
+1
fullybhoy
24 December 2023 11:45:16

Should go without saying. Anyone who gets depressed because the weather doesn’t do what they want needs to give their head a serious wobble 🙄

Not sure whether it’s relevant or not, but my iPhone app temps have trended downward today for after Xmas 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



You do spout some nonsense at times…….😂 but i agree with you here 100 percent 
Aldo
Glasgow 165m/asl
 

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