Barely anyone in here had ever heard of a SSW prior to this. Now it’s all anyone talks about in winter, lol

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

I need a break from the models and forecasts in general.

It's seriously depressing/angering me.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Its a sad state of affairs for all who love the weather how it was from the 60s to the 80s. Alex Deacon on the BBC did a little piece on the prospects of a white Christmas and stated openly how white christmases will soon be relegated to our dreams, with snowfall / snow lying incidents and duration Have fallen decade on decade and the same for Europe. Moreover, NASA research shows that despit the prospects for a super solar minima developing, like the one that caused the last mini-ice age - of Charles Dickens fame, the effect would be just 0.3 degrees of cooling, and this would be cancelled out by human created (fossil fuel) generated warming in just 3 years. Since stopping use of fossil fuels now would not prevent a new equilibrium from being reached well in excess of 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels, the actual figure would be 2.5, the fact is that very little progress has been made and with 2050 being a loose target for net zero, we’l be having turkey on the beach within our lifetime. I think its the saddest thing that all this was known about 20 years ago, we were debating it on this forum for much of it. Nothing was done. So much misinformation and funding for pseudo science to pour cold water on the facts and divert, distract, subvert and deny, that it worked - to stop action being taken. We are then left with memories and old videos. I share your model pain. Its SSWs and very rare Synoptics that can deliver lasting cold to the south of the UK, not impossible, but getting rarer every year.

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 

Whatever happened to mountain torque?

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

 



I'm still intrigued as to why we don't get Scandinavian Highs in midwinter any more. Clearly something's fundementally changed, presumably due to the warming trend, but it's odd. Maybe eventually once warming continues apace they might reappear, as whatever's blocking them from forming moves even further north?

Originally Posted by: Retron 

A nudge lower this morning.  Are we shuffling to a early January cold spell? 


10 of the 21 pert’s end with a cold scenario...which has risen from 30% to 49%, so the chances of something colder for January are increasing...fingers crossed.



 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Its a sad state of affairs for all who love the weather how it was from the 60s to the 80s. Alex Deacon on the BBC did a little piece on the prospects of a white Christmas and stated openly how white christmases will soon be relegated to our dreams . . .  

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 

What a brilliant submission. As a species we are capable of such wonder and have achieved so much in a relatively short time, but our woeful attempts to limit the burning of fossil fuels will see the end of us. The change in the weather is one of many signs that the mismanagement of our world means our tenure here is nearly over. 
Happy Christmas!

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

I had a similar thought a few days ago when I was tormented by Iberian heights . Whatever has caused them to increase in winter might be further disrupted as it gets warmer. Or something else might change that is actually in our favour in winter. Obviously within the bigger picture that it will still be getting warmer overall. It is our only hope I think.

Originally Posted by: Tim A 

It's still going on. The trouble with it is, much like the angular momentum stuff, MJO , stratospheric wind weakening, ENSO, sunspot numbers, the AMO , QBO  and so forth - it's just one piece of a much bigger puzzle, one which nobody - nobody - understands fully.

One of the chaps who frequents NW (which has always been the place to go to see buzzwords) posted this back on the 3rd Dec, on X:

As expected we have a +EAMT event underway. Essentially, +Mountain Torque takes momentum from the earths orbit & dumps it into the atmosphere, in this case, the Pacific jet. The jet extends east causing large wave-breaking events which ripple downstream. LATE DECEMBER COLD!

https://twitter.com/Met4CastUK/status/1731386899506348218 

EDIT: And tying with BJBlake's post above, it's my view that if you view each of the things I've mentioned above as a switch, on or off (in our favour or not), in the 60s to 90s you could get cold weather with just a few switched on. These days it seems to take pretty much everything switched on, and that very seldom happens - or, in more scientific terms, we're constantly moving right on the bell curve, meaning a 1% chance becomes a 0.5% chance, a 0.1% chance and so on.

I'm still intrigued as to why we don't get Scandinavian Highs in midwinter any more. Clearly something's fundementally changed, presumably due to the warming trend, but it's odd. Maybe eventually once warming continues apace they might reappear, as whatever's blocking them from forming moves even further north?

We still see them modelled from time to time, although usually as a one off event, rather than the self-reinforcing, repeating version as seen in the last Scandinavian High outbreak, in 2005. It's why it's even harder to get them - not only do we need one to form, we need the rest of the pattern in our part of the world to enter that self-sustaining mode. It can do it, effortlessly, when it comes to the Azores High, of course!

Originally Posted by: Retron 

A continued weakening or shut down of the NAD (Gulf Stream) would shift us left on the Bell Curve. As well as the lower sea temperatures there are the knock on effects of increased snow cover in our vicinity.  But I doubt any of us will be here to see it.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

GFS 06Z looks like a crowd pleaser.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze