WX temps - this week as ever cold towards the north incl Scotland but cold over W Europe generally. Week 2 does not follow up on yesterday's major advance of cold weather from the NE, instead something much more modest with freezing weather only getting to Poland, plus patches in mountainous areas. Cooler generally though and some very cold weather developing in the far N of Scandinavia and Iceland. Rain/snow for Britain and the N Sea area in week 1, and staying there (extending across France) in week 2, instead of heading off south as shown yesterday. Very wet for Turkey in week 2.
GFS Op - W-ly or NW-ly until Wed 27th when deep LP approaches N Scotland 970mb with SW gales further S. Most of this moves to Scandinavia by Sun 31st but breaks up with some bits hanging back in a mostly N-ly flow. A brief respite Mon 1st before another LP does the same Tue 2nd - Fri 5th after which a N-S ridge of HP leaves Britain on an unstable edge between Atlantic LP and S-lies and Scandinavian LP with N-lies.
ECM - rather different from Sun 31st with less hang-back as HP builds from the SW, at 1030mb over Spain Mon 1st and enough extension NE-wards for mild weather from the S at first, the ridge toppling so that by Thu 4th Britain is sandwiched between the Spanish HP and LP 975mb Faeroes, with strong W-lies, cold in Scotland.
GEFS - present mild temps in the S dropping to cool Mon 1st (the N less mild at this time anyway) with good ens agreement, and after that mean is near or a little below norm but agreement poor, op tending to be mild and control cold at first then reversing. Rain most likely always in the W and heaviest week beginning Fri 29th in the S, 27th in the N, but never completely dry. Snow row figures quite high for Inverness, but not exciting elsewhere.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl