Looked at the various ops this morning, generally nice although ECM was a bit 'meh' albeit it does tease the cold getting south at T240.
Not a great set of ECM ens IMBY with a lot of scatter suggesting any cold getting here from phase 2 is very uncertain and GFS has more scatter than of late albeit still good confidence for 3-4 days of colder uppers.
Happily I then had a quick look at UKV for Monday and it looks rather nice IMBY, with showers moving through most parts of Kent - looks like the convection will be a little more widespread than just the odd streamer so hopefully most in the county will see something falling. Shower activity also looks robust enough to affect southern parts of the Midlands and Suffolk and to maintain intensity through Surrey and Hampshire all the way down to Devon and maybe even the Western most parts of Cornwall. I doubt it'll be a memorable event and I'm not really expecting anything beyond some falling snow and maybe small accumulations for MBY (I guess some places under any lines of showers may do a bit better) but it's a pretty decent place to be particularly given the uncertainty creeping in WRT the second cold wave and whether it'll get this far or stall further North.
Cold and dry for the next few days, milder but not to anything more than average or a touch below then very uncertain but could still get 3-4 days of colder weather again. Definitely glass 3/4 full for me this morning - it's not as good as the strong signal for countrywide cold of a few days back but if the models had only just picked up on phase 2 I reckon most people would be pretty happy/excited with the possibilities shown.
Edited by user
07 January 2024 09:23:37
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Reason: Typo
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