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doctormog
07 January 2024 18:00:58

They look fractionally milder than the 00Z for the time I posted. Here's the comparable 00Z chart.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



That’s weird as the WZ data shows the 12z set as colder.

12z GEFS https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU12_240_2.png 

00z GEFS https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU00_252_2.png 
 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Retron
07 January 2024 18:01:08

My DP is showing as -2.9C and temp now down to 3C so colder air now moving in. Is your DP similar as my Stevenson's screen is aa bit delapidated and damp?

Originally Posted by: fairweather 


Mine always seems to read a bit higher - although that could be because of the sea nearby! The Davis station that I use has a built-in radiation shield (looks a bit like a beehive), and I've got a fan installed for daylight hours. Not much need of a fan today, though, as that wind is bitter - a true "lazy wind".

FWIW, I'm currently at 4.3, dew 0.6, so a fair bit higher all round. I expect both to fall away nicely by tomorrow morning as the colder 850s feed in.

 
Leysdown, north Kent
+1
Snow Hoper
07 January 2024 18:01:43

Yes, thanks Darren for the detailed reply. It was slightly tongue in cheek as it is pretty much what I thought but did needed some confirmation regarding ground conditions. Yes, my AWS has been on the excellent Wunderground for some years. Just had some light rain as you can see on the radar which I guess is promising for tomorrow. My DP is showing as -2.9C and temp now down to 3C so colder air now moving in. Is your DP similar as my Stevenson's screen is aa bit delapidated and damp?

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



I also had some rain showers today. My DP is nowhere near as low on either of my WS,' with both around half a degree above 0C 
Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.


Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.
+1
Brian Gaze
07 January 2024 18:08:47

That’s weird as the WZ data shows the 12z set as colder.

12z GEFS https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU12_240_2.png 

00z GEFS https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU00_252_2.png 
 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



You've posted the 10 days charts and my point specifically said "GEFS mean looks a bit less cold >10 days."
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+2
doctormog
07 January 2024 18:12:39

You've posted the 10 days charts and my point specifically said "GEFS mean looks a bit less cold >10 days."

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Sorry I thought you used the charts in your time point to illustrate your point which is why I used the exact same ones from WZ to illustrate mine. Hence my reply to your “They look fractionally milder than the 00Z for the time I posted” for the time in question with the chart you included.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Chunky Pea
07 January 2024 18:13:23

Mine always seems to read a bit higher - although that could be because of the sea nearby! The Davis station that I use has a built-in radiation shield (looks a bit like a beehive), and I've got a fan installed for daylight hours. Not much need of a fan today, though, as that wind is bitter - a true "lazy wind".

FWIW, I'm currently at 4.3, dew 0.6, so a fair bit higher all round. I expect both to fall away nicely by tomorrow morning as the colder 850s feed in.

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Never found the Davis humidity/DP readings to be especially accurate. Nearest Met station to me is only about 2 miles away and it'll always show lower, or higher humidities/dps - contingent on conditions, than my Davis. Davis temp readings themselves are pretty sound... if slow to react to small changes. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
fairweather
07 January 2024 18:16:33

perhaps a good moment to watch the Channel 5 documentary on the Winter of 47, available on My5

 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


Yes, let's hope there weren't any February "winter's over" that year.😁
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Whether Idle
07 January 2024 18:17:55
Current SSTs
https://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/temperature-de-la-mer.php?region=uk 
Upper air midday Monday
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=24&mode=0&map=3&type=0&archive=0 

Potentially a +11 SST versus -11 upper air = 22c of difference.  There will be convection albeit capped by high pressure.
Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
doctormog
07 January 2024 18:20:17
Looks chilly in the SE tomorrow on the 12z ECM op run:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPUK12_24_2.png
UserPostedImage 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Ally Pally Snowman
07 January 2024 18:28:00
ECM looks much better at 144h cleaner root for HP up to Greenland .
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Joe Bloggs
07 January 2024 18:28:30
Much better! 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_144_1.png 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Brian Gaze
07 January 2024 18:32:48

Sorry I thought you used the charts in your time point to illustrate your point which is why I used the exact same ones from WZ to illustrate mine. Hence my reply to your “They look fractionally milder than the 00Z for the time I posted” for the time in question with the chart you included.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



👍 No problem.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
doctormog
07 January 2024 18:34:39

ECM looks much better at 144h cleaner root for HP up to Greenland .
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



Not quite there but heading in the right direction which is a start.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
fairweather
07 January 2024 18:37:18

Mine always seems to read a bit higher - although that could be because of the sea nearby! The Davis station that I use has a built-in radiation shield (looks a bit like a beehive), and I've got a fan installed for daylight hours. Not much need of a fan today, though, as that wind is bitter - a true "lazy wind".

FWIW, I'm currently at 4.3, dew 0.6, so a fair bit higher all round. I expect both to fall away nicely by tomorrow morning as the colder 850s feed in.

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Yes, my smaller "beehive" shield never did enough. Tried every thing then built a copy screen. Which has lasted ten years and cost about a fiver vs £120. Still a problem when direct sun hits from the west in September and March for an hour. Did have an old computer fan run from a small solar panel facing west. Must try that again actually. (https://www.laindonweather.co.uk/images2/DCStevenson1.html )
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Rob K
07 January 2024 18:38:25

MetO T+168 is such a lovely chart. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMHDOPEU12_168_1.png 

I’ve always rated the MetO model - reminds me of Codge. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



Still got that annoying ridge trailing way southeast into Europe ready to stop the cold in its tracks. Not bad though. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
doctormog
07 January 2024 18:41:18

Still got that annoying ridge trailing way southeast into Europe ready to stop the cold in its tracks. Not bad though. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



It is very similar to the GEM op run and if you follow the progression on that run you will see the cold air is far from stopped in its tracks!

There could be a very nice end to the ECM op run.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Ally Pally Snowman
07 January 2024 18:42:50

Not quite there but heading in the right direction which is a start.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Should be stunning by day 10 lol. A full house of upgrades this evening though. 👍

 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Joe Bloggs
07 January 2024 18:54:07
I thought ECM was going Pete Tong at Day 7 , after a good Day 6. But we’re all good. 

A good day for coldies. 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
doctormog
07 January 2024 18:58:40

I thought ECM was going Pete Tong at Day 7 , after a good Day 6. But we’re all good. 

A good day for coldies. 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



Yes, the ECM is a bit of a cracker. 
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_240_1.png
UserPostedImage 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
DPower
07 January 2024 19:06:50
Ecm's 12z day 10 chart completely unexpected, would be the way to bring in deep cold across the UK from the continent. Day 10 charts from the ecm are completely unreliable though as can day 10 from other models but this would be a completely unforeseen direction of travel. 
Still wondering if the run is making to much of the wave that moves westward at t168-192 if so then the cold would have come in a stronger and faster. 
Certainly would like to see this model run gain ground with perhaps three or four days under a potent northerly then a swing to more of a east, north easterly bringing in even colder uppers and a prolonged freeze with snow ( I hope).
A good evening model runs though with much to look forward to.
 
David M Porter
07 January 2024 19:12:45

Should be stunning by day 10 lol. A full house of upgrades this evening though. 👍

 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



I've seen far worse runs than what we have seen today, and not so very long ago either. 🙂
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Ally Pally Snowman
07 January 2024 19:17:50

I've seen far worse runs than what we have seen today, and not so very long ago either. 🙂

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 



Yep we needed these 12s as it looked like it was going Pete Tong this morning. Hopefully we are now back on track.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
jhall
07 January 2024 19:51:12
With all the talk of dewpoints, I thought I'd give a link to this useful page which allows you to calculate the wet-bulb temperature from the "regular" temperature and the dewpoint:

Wet-bulb calculator 

Basically the wet-bulb temperature is the effective temperature that something moist - suck as a snowflake - will experience once you allow for evaporative cooling. It's useful as if the wet-bulb temperature is below zero all the way down to the surface then any falling precipitation will land as snow (though it may still melt on landing if the surface is too warm of course).
Cranleigh, Surrey
Rob K
07 January 2024 20:19:01
Looking at the Arctic pressure pattern that ECM run is technically about as zonal as you could get … just east to west. 😊
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Ally Pally Snowman
07 January 2024 20:37:18
Nice  upgrade from the ECM ensembles  tonight. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

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