After the 12z GFS I decided to start this mornings model scan through with that model so that everything else would be an improvement. Was pleasantly surprised instead!
Whether it'll hold is debateable but seem to have crept closer to some model consensus this morning.
HP builds towards Greenland allowing cold air to flood south - 14th Jan Scotland and by 15th Jan it's over most of the country. Some snow for prone areas in the north and maybe some showers drifting down some of the coasts.
A lobe of HP collapses south and drifts into the near continent, leaving a milder but still chilly slice with a second cold push from the north. At the same time LP is encroaching from the SW.
The LP bumps in to the colder air over the UK circa 16th, with snow for some - obviously the track won't be right at this stage so where the snow/rain boundary sits is guesswork and it might not even get to the south*. The LP moves west to east and helps to reinforce the cold over the south, further North it's already established with further snow for some.
Further LPs move up from the south west, more likely to introduce snow to rain for parts of the south, colder air probably remains for at least another couple of days further north.
Deeper into FI and most options remain possible from mild to cold, GFS builds HP over Scandinavia which is enough to keep cold (and east coast haar😜) for Scotland.
*As some of the ens members still show it could also get much further north and stick a chunk of the country in to transient snow, then mild and damp).
Overall it's not quite the full bullpen to chuck in a 99 reference but it's still very noice😋
So if the consensus holds and the milder scatter in the ens disappears a decent chance of 5 days of mostly cold weather in the south, probably 7 days or so at least for Scotland, maybe northern England. Chances of disruptive snowfall for some fairly high.
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