theweatheroutlook

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The Dub Version
10 January 2024 21:51:44
I've never seen so many model runs that show deep cold that never turns up.  Nothing like BTFE 2018 when you could of bet your mother on it.
Berkshire
Gandalf The White
10 January 2024 21:53:54

I've never seen so many model runs that show deep cold that never turns up.  Nothing like BTFE 2018 when you could of bet your mother on it.

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 



But it’s never been due to turn up before the weekend, with a 24-48 difference between reaching the north of Scotland and seeping south.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Joe Bloggs
10 January 2024 22:01:21
18z GFS is up and running.

Northern Scotland to get snow showers from Saturday evening. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_78_1.png 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Joe Bloggs
10 January 2024 22:09:12
Tuesday looks messy with a milder sector involved.

More organised sleet and snow moving south through Scotland but uppers do rise for a time, bringing the risk of rain. Snow on the back edge though. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_138_1.png 

 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
The Dub Version
10 January 2024 22:10:44

Same here. Like pulling hens' teeth here trying to get temp to drop. There's just that nagging breath of wind that's keeping it around 2C. 

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



Yet the met Office outlook for this time period said "severe and widespread" frosts.

I have no confidence in next week!
Berkshire
+1
The Dub Version
10 January 2024 22:13:21

Tuesday looks messy with a milder sector involved.

More organised sleet and snow moving south through Scotland but uppers do rise for a time, bringing the risk of rain. Snow on the back edge though. 



https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_138_1.png 

 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



Think it's curtains Midlands southwards. Expect obituaries on all forums tomorrow morning I fear. 
 
Berkshire
+1
Joe Bloggs
10 January 2024 22:16:18

Think it's curtains Midlands southwards. Expect obituaries on all forums tomorrow morning I fear. 
 

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 



Who are you? Are you new? 

You are funny. 🤣

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
+2
backtobasics
10 January 2024 22:19:17

Who are you? Are you new? 

You are funny. 🤣

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



every forum needs one 😁
+1
Joe Bloggs
10 January 2024 22:19:25
Midlands(ish) snow event on the 18z

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_174_1.png 

Snow line roughly the M4 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
+1
Russwirral
10 January 2024 22:22:13
Out of interest, when was the last frontal snow event in the uk

And for those of us in the NW.. when was ours?

 

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
+1
doctormog
10 January 2024 22:25:10
A very snowy and extremely cold run 18z GFS op run in some places. The ECM 12z op in a way showed one extreme, this is almost another.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+1
Lionel Hutz
10 January 2024 22:32:39

Midlands(ish) snow event on the 18z

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_174_1.png 

Snow line roughly the M4 

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 



Which ties in very closely with the Met Office view as posted by Retron earlier

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/snowens.jpg 

Which would be pretty ideal for me😊

 
Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



+1
ballamar
10 January 2024 22:39:33
Reckon we can safely say this won’t be the final resting place for the front. I do think it could be further north which will further annoy me!
White Meadows
10 January 2024 22:49:28
Everything much further north on the pub run tonight. 
Chilly Scotland with some wintriness. Further south it’s looking like a return to the deluge of December. 

 
Matty H
10 January 2024 22:50:46

Reckon we can safely say this won’t be the final resting place for the front. I do think it could be further north which will further annoy me!

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



I couldn’t really care less nowadays, but what I will say is, historically, from this type of situation, we get buried here. 2010, 2018

I’ve seen so many posts talking about the best scenarios for 20 years and it’s utter rubbish from a UK perspective. 
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
Matty H
10 January 2024 22:52:07

Everything much further north on the pub run tonight. 
Chilly Scotland with some wintriness. Further south it’s looking like a return to the deluge of December. 

 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



I like you because you wind up some people who portray themselves as superior humans, but that’s utter nonsense I’m afraid. 
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
White Meadows
10 January 2024 22:58:15

I like you because you wind up some people who portray themselves as superior humans, but that’s utter nonsense I’m afraid. 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

I like you too Matty, you should post more often.
 
Matty H
10 January 2024 22:59:48

I like you too Matty, you should post more often.
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



I’ve posted plenty in the last couple of decades, so don’t worry about that. Would be good for you to quantify your analysis of the 18z GFS though 👍
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
White Meadows
10 January 2024 23:01:33
No Scandy high in sight this time. That was a short lived trend. 
Instead we end up under a miserable zonal pattern later on.

 
David M Porter
10 January 2024 23:04:49
I still find it incredible in some ways when looking at the output as it is now comparing that to the dreadful runs we saw from the models in the lead-up to Christmas, and for a time between then and New Year. Some of the output at that time IIRC was suggesting that last month's very wet spell would continue until at least the end of the second week of January. Yet, when that spell finally ended last weekend, it did so pretty quickly.

Just goes to show that even these days, nothing can ever be completely ruled in or out when it comes to the model output and the weather we get as a result.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Karl Guille
10 January 2024 23:18:25
GFS 18z Op in the minority on the short GEFS by day 7 IMBY.  The mean actually dips below -5 which is an improvement.  Still all to be played for.  
St. Sampson
Guernsey
tallyho_83
10 January 2024 23:27:37
Not seen models for a few days but saw the 18z op run and thought WTF - constant Atlantic onslaught yet again from 180z but thankfully it's a minority option.
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Rob K
10 January 2024 23:45:07

Everything much further north on the pub run tonight. 
Chilly Scotland with some wintriness. Further south it’s looking like a return to the deluge of December. 

 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


Not sure what run that is meant to be analysing but the “pub run” usually refers to the GFS 18Z, which has the bulk of the snow over the south and southwest of England. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
+1
Rob K
10 January 2024 23:49:54

No Scandy high in sight this time. That was a short lived trend. 
Instead we end up under a miserable zonal pattern later on.

 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


The control has a Scandinavian high. Haven’t checked the rest. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
+1
fairweather
11 January 2024 00:18:32

Good point, they tend to be the guide of what’s really going to happen !!

Originally Posted by: MRayner 


Unfortunately the  Monday fax chart isn't great in that at its furthest point (Monday, 12z) the cold air hasn't even reached Manchester or the Wash.
S.Essex, 42m ASL

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