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Chunky Pea
11 January 2024 11:06:41

I can't agree with that, it's been mild, wet and windy throughout - up until last week, anyway. We had two named storms in 2022/3, and we're up to 8 already this season... it's been relentless, which is why it's so nice to have a break from it for a while.

 

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Those named storms, much like the named storms of recent winters, have brought nothing but standard winter winds here. I know the SE of England has seen some fairly high winds at times this winter, but hardly anything out the the norm I imagine. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Retron
11 January 2024 11:15:45

Those named storms, much like the named storms of recent winters, have brought nothing but standard winter winds here. I know the SE of England has seen some fairly high winds at times this winter, but hardly anything out the the norm I imagine. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


It's been far windier than normal down here in the SE. Henk alone had winds into the low to mid 60s widely across southern England, which is rare. There have been several occasions when we've had winds into the 50s and 60s down here, again unusual - you might expect one or two such events from October to March, but it's been more frequent this extended winter.

The reason is that the jet has been displaced further south, so we in the south have borne the brunt of many of the storms, rather than the more usual track giving the worst winds to Scotland!

(I suspect the Scots have enjoyed their quieter than normal extended winter, although they've had plenty of extra rain what with being on the north side of the storms for once!)

 
Leysdown, north Kent
+3
Russwirral
11 January 2024 11:20:12
Im still struggling to see how this can be anything but a dry cold spell with snow confined to the fringes of the UK?

Of all the runs for the past say 3 or 4 days (12/16 runs), significant snowfall events have been the on the low side.

 

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Whiteout
11 January 2024 11:24:53

Here's an interesting chart from the ECM's 0z run - apparently the red lines show the various positioning of the warm front next Wednesday, one line per ensemble member! Can't say I've seen that sort of chart before, normally the spaghetti plots are for 850s, or 500hPa heights or similar.

It's from the MetO 10-day trend video, the one where Alex Deakin mentions that there could be some "dumps" for Scotland!

The link for that is on the Media thread if you've not already seen it.

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/warmfront.jpg
UserPostedImage 

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Just quickly perusing the 'other side' and someone has posted the latest spaghetti plot, are the publicly available Darren??
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
Rob K
11 January 2024 11:27:50
GEFS mean precip chart shows everything is a very long way south into France on Wednesday.

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2024011106/gens-31-2-150.png 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Joe Bloggs
11 January 2024 11:27:51

Im still struggling to see how this can be anything but a dry cold spell with snow confined to the fringes of the UK?

Of all the runs for the past say 3 or 4 days (12/16 runs), significant snowfall events have been the on the low side.

 

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 



I’m definitely getting model fatigue now.

However our best hope in the NW is for charts like this to verify. https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_180_1.png 

I would be gobsmacked if we got any frontal snow from the south so as usual we are relying on convective troughs and little features which won’t be picked up on until nearer the time. 

UKV has this for example
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/ukv/03_120_snow_depth.png 
 https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/ukv/03_114_rain_rate.png 

 

Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
Gandalf The White
11 January 2024 11:32:21

They are the pro's, not us 😉

Originally Posted by: Whiteout 



If the MetOffice did their forecasts like some TWO contributors there’d be a new update every hour; complete with a range of emojis expressing shock, disappointment and euphoria.

The broad picture in the currently reliable range is still fine: the Arctic plunge will flow south sometime over the weekend, into early next week.  Any detail beyond that is up in the air; the longer range pattern a week out is still in guesswork territory; if the modelling for next week is wrong then so is what follows.
 
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+3
nsrobins
11 January 2024 11:36:59
Notwithstanding the shenanigans to come next week, I'm genuinely shocked at the persistence of GFS to bring the Atlantic back in with +NAO and a raging SW flow as soon as +216. It's been there on three or four consecutive runs but goes against the 'drivers' and background (EC46, Glossea etc) that the MetO must of been seeing in their longer term outlooks.
There might well be a major switch back by GFS but the trend is not your friend if you're a coldie.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Retron
11 January 2024 11:37:46

Just quickly perusing the 'other side' and someone has posted the latest spaghetti plot, are the publicly available Darren??

Originally Posted by: Whiteout 


They're not as far as I can see! A pity, as they're a useful product to have access to. It seems "Met4Cast" over on NW does have access though - maybe they're an employee of a weather forecasting company?
Leysdown, north Kent
+1
Chunky Pea
11 January 2024 11:54:17

Just quickly perusing the 'other side' and someone has posted the latest spaghetti plot, are the publicly available Darren??

Originally Posted by: Whiteout 



I remember coming across those charts on the ECM website a few years back. They must have been publicly available then, and they could well still be, but probably takes a bit of rooting around to find them.
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
+1
tallyho_83
11 January 2024 12:16:42

This cold spell could deliver, but to me the model output has been inconsistent and never quite hitting overdrive. Perhaps it's old age and cynicsm, but I was more confident during the approach to the cold periods in 2009 and 2010.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



I notice this is the them over past winters and last one was another example, si that when we do get cold they tend to be boring dry spells gruesmone twosome's.  What has interesting about this winter is also the fact that Northern Europe is still well below average still and has been since November and they have maintained colder than average esp Scandinavia and baltics - some 10c below and this has been going on for 1.5 months now. Sorry to go OT. Looks like both Channel lows will miss the UK altogether now - we saw something similar last winter when they track too far south - always something isn't there eh?
06z shows Wed night into Thursday low to south of Channel in channel 

UserPostedImage
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Downpour
11 January 2024 12:19:13

Indeed they are, but I rather feel they will backtrack from their bullish predictions over the coming days.
They will do it subtly, of course.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 



FWIW, the raw BBC output makes grim reading for the two southern quadrants of the UK at least (thus the vast majority of the UK population). Cold/chilly until midweek then endless days of rain: yet again. A long way off though, so let guys hope the perennially optimistic TWO members are proved right this time for once. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
+1
Downpour
11 January 2024 12:20:31

This cold spell could deliver, but to me the model output has been inconsistent and never quite hitting overdrive. Perhaps it's old age and cynicsm, but I was more confident during the approach to the cold periods in 2009 and 2010.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



Indeed Brian, without model consistency I always remain sceptical. And history teaches me that I am right to be so. 
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Hippydave
11 January 2024 12:45:00

Notwithstanding the shenanigans to come next week, I'm genuinely shocked at the persistence of GFS to bring the Atlantic back in with +NAO and a raging SW flow as soon as +216. It's been there on three or four consecutive runs but goes against the 'drivers' and background (EC46, Glossea etc) that the MetO must of been seeing in their longer term outlooks.
There might well be a major switch back by GFS but the trend is not your friend if you're a coldie.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



I think some kind of mobile and more average (or mild down here) spell is very likely for the final third of the month and has been fairly well signalled in the various ens sets for a little while. It remains to be seen if we get stuck in a rut despite the apparently positive background drivers or if we'll start to see some blocked solutions gaining traction as the runs start to cover late January into February. 

There is I guess still a theoretical possibility that the jet may stay south and cold air remains in situ for some parts but that's looking unlikely as it stands. (Scotland will obviously be more likely to get cold sectors even in a zonal flow).  I know over on NW there's been posters going through some stuff I know little about that suggested the broadscale pattern would likely be less conducive to blocking/cold late January, with that picking back up towards Feb, be interesting to see if they maintain their stance and if the models move towards something more interesting. The bit I have paid attention to is the next dip in the zonal winds, which is still on track and may help to shut the Atlantic up as we head to Feb assuming a couple of weeks lag before any impact is felt on the jet. 

Looking at the upcoming cold weather and I'm feeling nice and balanced today - not expecting much but will look out for what the LP tracks are looking like and for possible rogue features staying intact to MBY. Icon 6z showed a couple of cheeky (very) little areas of precip just about making it to me and I'd imagine there'd be some unexpected interest for others too, even if it's not a snowfest. 
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
The Dub Version
11 January 2024 12:50:13
I think Gary sarre may do well out of this.
I'm confident.
 
Berkshire
Chunky Pea
11 January 2024 12:53:20

Looks like both Channel lows will miss the UK altogether now - we saw something similar last winter when they track too far south - always something isn't there eh?
06z shows Wed night into Thursday low to south of Channel in channel 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 



There is a lot of 'spread' regarding that particular low next week. I'd not worry too much about fine tuned positioning at this stage as it is still pretty much a week away. And if you look a just the 'mean' positioning of that low, it still looks very favourable for those who wish to see snow from it. 

UserPostedImage
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
tallyho_83
11 January 2024 12:58:31

Indeed Brian, without model consistency I always remain sceptical. And history teaches me that I am right to be so. 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 



Just what does it take to get us a proper snowy day ...? I do wonder even in 2021 when we had a cold spell in February 21 following the SSW in January 2021 - it was a dry nature and all the LP's went to channel isles really last winter during December 2022 cold spell earlier in Month and in January 2023 we saw the same and southern Cornwall and a few days ago Jersey had snow as well and Bobmin Moor in Cornwall saw a dusting and the lows \always missing UK. I do wonder if this is the new theme or the fact that we are very unlucky lately....

What was it about the BFTE end of February into March 2018 which was so well forecast by models and Met office and the snow event (Storm Emma) from Bay of Biscay which actually came about as predicted and if anything we saw upgrades and cross model agreements from 1-2 weeks prior...
Anyone notice since then the models have been very poor? is it to do with the weather being more harder to forecast or models becoming more unreliable or what? just what is it? Sorry for my rant...but since the last proper easterly cold spell which was the BFTE in February./March 2018 the models have failed us and failed forecasters like BBC etc.
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Brian Gaze
11 January 2024 13:08:49
One question I have is, has anyone here seen the ECM ENS snow depth postage stamps in recent days? Not that many runs in GEFS and MOGREPS-G have been showing significant snow depths in southern Britain, so I assume ECM ENS has? (Unfortunately, snow depth isn't currently an open source parameter so I can't offer it on TWO)
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
nsrobins
11 January 2024 13:10:42


Anyone notice since then the models have been very poor? is it to do with the weather being more harder to forecast or models becoming more unreliable or what? just what is it? Sorry for my rant...but since the last proper easterly cold spell which was the BFTE in February./March 2018 the models have failed us and failed forecasters like BBC etc.

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


Hi Tally - I feel your frustration where you are on the English Riviera. I don't think the models have been poor, but what we see is understandably affected by our expectations. After some of the output of recent days it would be disappointing not to see at least a bit of snow next week but I have a feeling the MetO will now start the process of easing away from the wintry outlooks in their extended texts today. If you are a fan of GFS then it might be some weeks before the next opportunity of HLB and a cold flow returns to model land - and the days are getting longer.
I might be wrong of course - the next GFS OP might show a snow-laden Northeasterly for everyone but even if it did I don't think the outlook would be any clearer.
I have been very quiet with my forecast group about next week - as it stands that was a wise move.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
+1
Retron
11 January 2024 13:23:58

One question I have is, has anyone here seen the ECM ENS snow depth postage stamps in recent days? Not that many runs in GEFS and MOGREPS-G have been showing significant snow depths in southern Britain, so I assume ECM ENS has? (Unfortunately, snow depth isn't currently an open source parameter so I can't offer it on TWO)

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Hmm - no link for snow postage stamps, but there is a stacked bar chart for precipitation type if that's any use?

Reading link below, you can type in your own town.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/opencharts_ptype_meteogram?base_time=202401110000&lat=51.4333&lon=-1.0&station_name=Reading 
Leysdown, north Kent
tallyho_83
11 January 2024 13:30:53

Hi Tally - I feel your frustration where you are on the English Riviera. I don't think the models have been poor, but what we see is understandably affected by our expectations. After some of the output of recent days it would be disappointing not to see at least a bit of snow next week but I have a feeling the MetO will now start the process of easing away from the wintry outlooks in their extended texts today. If you are a fan of GFS then it might be some weeks before the next opportunity of HLB and a cold flow returns to model land - and the days are getting longer.
I might be wrong of course - the next GFS OP might show a snow-laden Northeasterly for everyone but even if it did I don't think the outlook would be any clearer.
I have been very quiet with my forecast group about next week - as it stands that was a wise move.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



ATM happy with drier for a change but it's incredible frustrating to see Met Office outlooks/BBC etc saying significant disruptive snow along with models showing southern UK and or many parts England plastered in snow yet only for many of us not to see a single flake or even worse for snow to miss the UK altogether and go southwards, I am not saying this will happen but since the BFTE 2018 this has offen been the case....
await the 12z run..
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


picturesareme
11 January 2024 13:33:55

Notwithstanding the shenanigans to come next week, I'm genuinely shocked at the persistence of GFS to bring the Atlantic back in with +NAO and a raging SW flow as soon as +216. It's been there on three or four consecutive runs but goes against the 'drivers' and background (EC46, Glossea etc) that the MetO must of been seeing in their longer term outlooks.
There might well be a major switch back by GFS but the trend is not your friend if you're a coldie.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



The ECMWF has also been showing it for a couple of days too, and it's showing less cold earlier than the GFS .
The Dub Version
11 January 2024 13:35:35
BBC1 1:30 - Snow risk central southern England only now.

 
Berkshire
Brian Gaze
11 January 2024 13:36:26

Hmm - no link for snow postage stamps, but there is a stacked bar chart for precipitation type if that's any use?

Reading link below, you can type in your own town.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/opencharts_ptype_meteogram?base_time=202401110000&lat=51.4333&lon=-1.0&station_name=Reading 

Originally Posted by: Retron 



👍As far as I can see, not that many runs are currently showing snow in the south. As you say, that shows precipitation type, so it is reasonable to assume that the number of runs going for accumulating snow is even lower. I'm not sure if this update is reasonably consistent with other recent ones or not. However, there was a graphic doing the rounds yesterday (either on here or Twitter I'm not sure which - I've been configuring and installing software on new PC since yesterday so haven't been focused on discussions) purportedlyfrom the UK Met which showed a high risk of disruptive snow in southern and central Britain. I wonder what that was based on.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Brian Gaze
11 January 2024 13:38:18

BBC1 1:30 - Snow risk central southern England only now.

 

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 



Don't they still provide weather forecasts for Scotland?
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+1

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