You pays your money (and you takes your choice). There is interest for cold weather fans as we head through February. However, at the moment it all looks tenuous to me, particularly if you live in the south. 

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Indeed, Brian: marginality is the watchword for those outside the favoured spots in the far north and atop the northern hills. 

'Twas ever thus this winter – no dressing it up for 70-80% of the UK population. 

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first attempt looks cold and wet! Hopefully more interesting second half of the month when hopefully heights really get established 

I’m liking the look of the 12zs 
ICON, UKMO and gfs all show a sliding scenario 

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Widespread snow on this op run for end of next week. Hinged on the low pressure position now where have we seen that before

Indeed snowy GFS 12z. And Ukmo looks snowy to me. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmoeu.php?&ech=168&mode=0 
 

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Is the Siberian high on the move on GFS?

definitely looks snowy - surprised not more interest! It’s only a model……cheer up everyone!

You would be correct according to the precip chart:



Certainly seems to be an elevated chance of somewhere getting a transient but potentially disruptive snowfall as the jet wanders south and LPs engage the colder air moving south.

 

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Yes please 🙏 

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All comes down to how fast the low develops:

Too slow: Weak shortwave passes into France, likely northerly toppler/nothingburger thereafter

Too fast: Overdeveloped when arriving in the UK pulling up warmer winds from the south east and mixing out the airmasses north of the triple point. Snow mostly limited to the mountains of Scotland.

Just right: Strong temp gradient across the country; snow somewhere in the middle and Nerly winds after for at least sometime.


All of these are possible, wouldn't count on option 2 just yet until there is more agreement.

 

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The Ukm between 144 and 168 is beautiful only problem is I’m flying back to the uk from Portugal on the 8th 😅

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Might be worth considering getting a flight back a day or two earlier, just in case! 🙂

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Netweather's snow risk charts show the M4 barrier in good working order https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/snow-risk 

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Dissappointing. Looks very marginal for London. If the frontal snow on that chart misses London, 80% or so of the UK population will miss out .....😇

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Only about 13% of the UK population live in London. 

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I wouldn’t worry!

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GEM op the pick this morning!

If GEM are on the money northern France Benelux countries will get buried, Southern counties may see the odd flake as they miss out again...all in all a lot more believable   

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The output does seem to be forming up on a cooler and more unsettled picture. The GEFS suite is taking that distinctive shape again (albeit for my location where no one lives): https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=57.2&lon=-2.25 




Coukd be very wet and windy but there is a chance that it could be wintry in places too.

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WX temp charts showing some movement. From the familiar pattern in week 1 (All Europe except Scandinavia above norm, freezing weather north of a line from the Baltic to the S Urals) there is a breakout with freezing weather spreading SW-wards to affect Germany and the Alps. Britain and France are also colder while there is a compensating bulge in milder weather to the N of Ukraine. Pptn (some of which will be snow) in week 1 for Britain, France and across to the Baltic States; in week 2 this splits into three, Norwegian coast, Biscay and S Russia, Britain at least in the S fairly dry.

GFS Op - Current zonal W-lies with HP over N France collapsing by Wed 7th with LP from mid-Atlantic approaching to link up with a deeper area already over S Sweden. becoming a defined centre in its own right Fri 9th 975mb Cornwall with trough lying along the Channel, and E-lies for most of Britain. (Other charts suggest heavy snow across the Midlands but the far S missing out). This LP gets sucked into the general circulation in Sweden leaving weak N-lies behind. By Wed 14th HP 1035 mb Ireland dominates Britain but fails to establish and by Sun 18th there's yet another Scandinavian LP 980mb Norway with Britain under NW-lies, looking rather cold in the NE.

ECM - a critical difference Fri 9th in that the LP and trough lie across N England/S Scotland so snow more likely further N. However it then dives S-wards 965mb Brittany Sat 10th so the S coast does get a shot of cold weather, especially as the following N-lies are stronger - but just as brief as in GFS. 

GEFS - In the S, temps decreasing by fits and starts to the norm by Sat 10th, then a cooler period of 4 or 5 days (op & control much colder than the pack at this time) but mean back to norm by Sun 18th, usual scatter on either side. Heavy rain either side of Fri 9th, some chances of snow on the tail end of this from the Midlands N-wards. In Scotland, temps down, up and down again when the cold period starts, but here earlier on Wed 7th before back to norm as for the S. Rain in two batches 7th and 9th, and as the cold period is definitely colder, quite a good chance of snow on the 9th. NE England more like Scotland, NW England more like the S.

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I dont think this is getting resolved anytime soon; tiny differences in LP development lead to massuve differences regarding snow potential.

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Can't really complain this morning.  A cold spell looks like starting in a weeks time. How cold and snowy who knows, but it looks snowier  than the January spell. Famous lasts words maybe.

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https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsenswind_10mb60.png?w=800&colors=128 

Hi this is my first post.  Does this graph indicate a possible SSW?  Thank you.

Hi, welcome to TWO!

You're right - the graph has a few members showing a major SSW (reversal), including the operational run. Possible, but unlikely is how I'd sum that up.

The ECM ensembles show a similar picture:

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202402010000 

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