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Chunky Pea
08 February 2024 14:28:24

The mid Feb easterly/ northeasterly/ widespread cold signalled by Met office for weeks on end looks like taking its final pull on the flush now. 

Today’s brief snow to rain affair localised areas in Leeds/ Welsh hills will come as a huge disappointment to many coldies in the rest of the north. 

Looking forward to high pressure becoming established once again as it seems blue skies are the only half interesting commodity this winter. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



I've gotten to the stage now where the only reason I look forward to late autumn/ winter is for the shorter days. Weatherwise, winters just seem to be becoming more bland by the year at this stage. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
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ballamar
08 February 2024 16:23:25
Think in the next couple of days we need to see a dramatic change cross model hopefully edge towards the 6z control run!
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
08 February 2024 16:34:00

The mid Feb easterly/ northeasterly/ widespread cold signalled by Met office for weeks on end looks like taking its final pull on the flush now. 

Today’s brief snow to rain affair localised areas in Leeds/ Welsh hills will come as a huge disappointment to many coldies in the rest of the north. 

Looking forward to high pressure becoming established once again as it seems blue skies are the only half interesting commodity this winter. 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

I think today’s snow was pretty well modelled, as it’s covered quite an area in the East Midlands as well.  The yellow Met Office warning was certainly spot on for here, as we’ve had a few cms and roads are pretty bad with traffic at a standstill in places.
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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+1
David M Porter
08 February 2024 17:15:30
The UKMO 12z at 168hrs looks somewhat different to the GFS 12z op at that timeframe:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ukmhd&var=1&run=12&time=168&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=12&time=168&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 
 
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
doctormog
08 February 2024 18:36:00
Snow Hoper
08 February 2024 18:39:04
To all intents and purposes, the now modelled more unsettled spell was what the GFS had been modelling all along.  Can only hope the Strat reversal gives the Winter one last hurrah like in 2018.
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+2
fairweather
08 February 2024 20:17:02

While I take on board what you say in general terms, early March is a very long time away in forcasting terms and trying to forecast a few weeks ahead will be even more difficult with another SSW happening or about to happen, as far as I understand. We still can't be 100% sure about next week right now, let alone a month ahead.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Early March isn't winter though, even if we get a cold snap, which I'm sure we will. Just face it, this actual winter is over and for most it has been right up there with the worst.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
White Meadows
08 February 2024 20:19:20

I think today’s snow was pretty well modelled, as it’s covered quite an area in the East Midlands as well.  The yellow Met Office warning was certainly spot on for here, as we’ve had a few cms and roads are pretty bad with traffic at a standstill in places.

Originally Posted by: Caz 

We’re not talking about nowcasting, or warnings given 24 hours in advance. We’re talking about the dogs dinner of their long range prediction. Some years ago the Office ceased talking about anything further ahead than a few weeks. For good reason it seems. Thing is, there’s probably way too much financial gain at stake with contractual obligations in place. 
 
+1
David M Porter
08 February 2024 20:29:02

Early March isn't winter though, even if we get a cold snap, which I'm sure we will. Just face it, this actual winter is over and for most it has been right up there with the worst.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



I personally would be rather reticent about using that phrase at the moment when, meteorogically speaking at least, we still have three weeks of winter to go.

Those long-time TWO members who were here at this time 19 years ago will know exactly what I am referring to. 😁
 
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
fairweather
08 February 2024 20:32:15
Meanwhile in a week's time I see there's predicted to be a massive HP over Russia of 1065mb and temperatures down to -40C in the SE regions with Moscow touching maxes of -10C to-15C for a while. It seems that Scandinavia and Russia have had winters like they would expect and have not had in recent years. USA has done alright as well but that is fairly normal. So their gain has been our loss. We used to have a good chance of tapping into some continental feed when they had those type of winters but they will soon be forgotten by people except for the very old. Even now I doubt anybody under 40 can really remember the sort of winters that would bring.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
David M Porter
08 February 2024 20:35:38

We’re not talking about nowcasting, or warnings given 24 hours in advance. We’re talking about the dogs dinner of their long range prediction. Some years ago the Office ceased talking about anything further ahead than a few weeks. For good reason it seems. Thing is, there’s probably way too much financial gain at stake with contractual obligations in place. 
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



IIRC, when I was at high school in the 1990s, the BBC forecasts generally speaking did not go any further ahead that the following three days at the most. The only exception to this was on Sundays when they did the Countryfile week ahead forecasts (Landward had the same thing in Scotland), and I think the forecasts at the end of the BBC One O'Clock News on Wednesday lunchtimes used to go as far as the following Sunday. They used to generally keep their cards much closer to their chest in those days re longer-range forecasts than is the case now and has been in the last 15-20 years.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
The Dub Version
08 February 2024 21:00:22

We’re not talking about nowcasting, or warnings given 24 hours in advance. We’re talking about the dogs dinner of their long range prediction. Some years ago the Office ceased talking about anything further ahead than a few weeks. For good reason it seems. Thing is, there’s probably way too much financial gain at stake with contractual obligations in place. 
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



I remember when the met long ranger was updated ONCE a week, ,every thursday. It was more accurate then!
 
Berkshire
Brian Gaze
08 February 2024 21:28:16
ECM ENS 12Z looks fairly solid now.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Brian Gaze
08 February 2024 21:30:17

IIRC, when I was at high school in the 1990s, the BBC forecasts generally speaking did not go any further ahead that the following three days at the most. The only exception to this was on Sundays when they did the Countryfile week ahead forecasts (Landward had the same thing in Scotland), and I think the forecasts at the end of the BBC One O'Clock News on Wednesday lunchtimes used to go as far as the following Sunday. They used to generally keep their cards much closer to their chest in those days re longer-range forecasts than is the case now and has been in the last 15-20 years.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 



Forecasts for the month ahead were issued in the late 1970s and early 1980s. People have told me they were based on upper atmospheric pattern matching, but I've not seen any written evidence to confirm that was the case. 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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fairweather
08 February 2024 22:21:27

If the ensembles keep following this path I suspect we could soon be looking at further adjustments to the extended range forecasts. March and April may or may not bring notable cold spells. However, what is looking likely is that the meteorological winter 2023-24 will be notably mild.

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

 

Well up to  the 17th anyway, leaving 11 days of winter.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
BJBlake
09 February 2024 07:07:58
GFS 0z Op goes Pete on the SSW induced high level blocking -already! Actually the control does keep it but altogether, less than 30% of the perts. However, still plenty of flip-flop to come - until Pete finally rests his boots by the fire. https://images.meteociel.fr/im/49/4196/animkeq0.gif 
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
doctormog
09 February 2024 07:13:45
The output looks generally consistent up to the 14th but after that a range of options are possible, as shown in both the op runs and the ensemble data.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
The Dub Version
09 February 2024 07:57:11
Morning, I'd like a frost please.





That's how bad it is this winter.....
Berkshire
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
09 February 2024 08:09:46
WX charts show no great change in temp distribution over the next two weeks; freezing and ultra-freezing weather both slowly retreating NE-wards. Compared to the 20th C, for week 1, NE Europe is much below norm, SE Europe much above norm, and W Europe a little above. Wet in Atlantic coastal countries, drying up in Spain in week 2 but extending into Germany instead.

GFS Op - current LP taking a tour of Britain before finally moving off to the N Tue 13th . For the following week a deep LP sticks near Newfoundland and projects more or less deep troughs across (mostly N) Britain and on to Norway, with S Britain closer to Iberian HP. From Wed 21st the LP shifts to W of Iceland 955mb and although this breaks up LP continues to dominate the N Atlantic e.g. 960mb  Rockall Sun 25th with Britain under a strong W or SW flow. 

ECM - the LP near Newfoundland does not extend into the Atlantic. At first (Thu 15th) there is a local trough for Britain, and then from Sat 17th a N-S ridge of HP develops, moving into Britain from the west by Mon 19th

GEFS - mild at first (in Scotland after a cooler day or two), cooling to norm around Tue 13th and mainly dry at this time. Wetter and milder (v mild in SE) around Fri 16th after which a wide spread of outcomes. Some rain from time to time but not very wet.
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Chichester 12m asl
+2
nsrobins
09 February 2024 09:11:42

The output looks generally consistent up to the 14th but after that a range of options are possible, as shown in both the op runs and the ensemble data.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


Whilst EC continues to hint at something, I’m keeping the white flag furled and the fat lady off-stage. Sucking a lozenge yes, but not singing yet.
And we have an SSW incoming - so potential for ‘something’ into early March.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
BJBlake
09 February 2024 09:49:39

Whilst EC continues to hint at something, I’m keeping the white flag furled and the fat lady off-stage. Sucking a lozenge yes, but not singing yet.
And we have an SSW incoming - so potential for ‘something’ into early March.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Sums it all up perfectly. I hope this SSW doesn’t leave us with a handful of straw!!
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
Saint Snow
09 February 2024 09:53:51

Sums it all up perfectly. I hope this SSW doesn’t leave us with a handful of straw!!

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 




Straw can be useful to put over patches of mud...

Martin
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nsrobins
09 February 2024 10:17:38

Straw can be useful to put over patches of mud...

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


If this morning's JMA is correct straw might be needed to cover the ice.
There, it's happened - my first and only reference to the mighty JMA.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
+1
The Dub Version
09 February 2024 10:37:22
Just more noise in phantom cold spell land on the models again
 
Berkshire
ballamar
09 February 2024 10:41:34
Well the 6z op GFS shows how we can get to cold esp in the south. Scandi high which hopefully won’t sink!
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