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Ally Pally Snowman
09 February 2024 10:45:11
Well the GFS 6z also has a pointless easterly by day 11. Can it drag in some genuinely cold air?
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
ballamar
09 February 2024 10:47:41

Well the GFS 6z also has a pointless easterly by day 11. Can it drag in some genuinely cold air?

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



disagree it’s pointless cont feed with those uppers would be cold
Ally Pally Snowman
09 February 2024 10:52:47

disagree it’s pointless cont feed with those uppers would be cold

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



It does get some -10c 850s to the UK so yes it would be cold enough.  Let's see if it gains any traction.  But I'm weary of chasing snow this winter I'm sure like most on here.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Russwirral
09 February 2024 11:07:19
GFS returns to form providing a bit of titillation after 240.



 

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Ally Pally Snowman
09 February 2024 11:11:06

GFS returns to form providing a bit of titillation after 240.



 

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 



It's all a bit naff though. There is not much properly cold air around by the end. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
09 February 2024 11:13:45
Sadly I fear late February and March will be irritatingly cool. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
09 February 2024 11:25:04

We’re not talking about nowcasting, or warnings given 24 hours in advance. We’re talking about the dogs dinner of their long range prediction. Some years ago the Office ceased talking about anything further ahead than a few weeks. For good reason it seems. Thing is, there’s probably way too much financial gain at stake with contractual obligations in place. 
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Ahh sorry, maybe I wasn’t clear. I was responding to your comment about snow being restricted locally to Leeds and the Welsh hills.  It was much wider spread and we had a yellow warning issued on Sunday for Thursday, so the Met Office got that spot on for us.  I personally don’t think forecasts much earlier than that are of much use. 
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
Russwirral
09 February 2024 11:48:15

GFS returns to form providing a bit of titillation after 240.



 

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 

always the case though that you just hunt for the synoptic and hope the alignment with cold air happens later.  Easterly wind in February would be cold

Weather station:
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 
Taylor1740
09 February 2024 11:55:40
Looks like there will still be some opportunities for straw clutching over the remaining few weeks of winter...
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Saint Snow
09 February 2024 12:16:11

If this morning's JMA is correct straw might be needed to cover the ice.
There, it's happened - my first and only reference to the mighty JMA.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



🤣👍

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
CField
09 February 2024 12:39:03
Winters last agonal moment!
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
tallyho_83
09 February 2024 12:59:08

Whilst EC continues to hint at something, I’m keeping the white flag furled and the fat lady off-stage. Sucking a lozenge yes, but not singing yet.
And we have an SSW incoming - so potential for ‘something’ into early March.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Probability of an SSW went from 96% chance yesterday to 61% chance today:

http://www.weatheriscool.com/ 
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Gandalf The White
09 February 2024 14:24:41

Probability of an SSW went from 96% chance yesterday to 61% chance today:

http://www.weatheriscool.com/ 

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 



Yet yesterday’s ECM ensemble forecast for 10hPa winds showed the mean dropping into reversal territory for 4-5 days next week.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


nsrobins
09 February 2024 14:41:32

Yet yesterday’s ECM ensemble forecast for 10hPa winds showed the mean dropping into reversal territory for 4-5 days next week.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



ECM. Need say no more 😗
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Hippydave
09 February 2024 15:30:23

Probability of an SSW went from 96% chance yesterday to 61% chance today:

http://www.weatheriscool.com/ 

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 



And now back to 74% as of the time of writing, so usual intra-run noise.

At the moment (IMO) the chances of a technical SSW are high and per the ECM Gandalf/Peter refers to, it's looking like if it happens it'll be longer lasting than the last blink and you miss it affair. 

Whether it has any impacts on our weather and whether that's mild or cold is of course uncertain.

A quick look at the 6z Op run shows a double warming, something that some of the ECM ens members were presumably modelling too judging by yesterdays zonal wind chart at least.  

I like SSWs just because it's interesting seeing if they downwell and what the impacts are - the 2018 Easterly showed they can be cold, as did March 2013 (I think) but equally we had a very mild spell following one a couple of years back too. 
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
+4
nsrobins
09 February 2024 16:19:15
I've seen an article suggesting some SSWs downwell quite rapidly and this might be one of them looking at the connection and response from 10HPa to 50HPa going forward.

GFS 12Z possibly weaving some magic again and earlier than the 06Z OP.

(the above two sentences not connected by the way as we know even with a rapid response we shouldn't expect any influence from the predicted SSW until day 12 at least).
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
+2
Gandalf The White
09 February 2024 16:31:05

ECM. Need say no more 😗

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



LOL.   I think I have more faith in ECM than GFS, particularly the ensemble suite.

Let's see if today's run pulls back any further - yesterday's was a modest lessening of the reversal.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
Hippydave
09 February 2024 17:00:30
A fun (so far) FI picture from GFS 12z Op. No cold air until gone T300 but the setup develops much earlier. If I had to bet it'll show a collapsing lobe of HP post T330 and the jet realigning SW to NE and pushing the cold away, just because that's what's happened this year and gets modelled a lot too....
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
Rob K
09 February 2024 19:10:13
ECM looks pretty dull. And again has HP across Europe so no more snow for the Alps.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Chunky Pea
09 February 2024 19:39:10

ECM looks pretty dull. And again has HP across Europe so no more snow for the Alps.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



No real mild, no real cold. No real interesting weather at all.

Roll on spring 🌼🌱
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
ballamar
09 February 2024 22:10:46
Lots of negative thoughts here still got potential last few days of winter, no real cold showing yet but could quickly change with wind in the right direction. Better than 2 weeks of zonal in the forecast. GFS rolling hopefully a pub run to cheer everyone up!
ballamar
09 February 2024 22:39:55
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=2&time=240&run=18&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3 

great potential in this chart cold air building to NE - one last crack for the winter. Hope it will advect towards UK 

getting a 2018 feel about it but doesn’t quite link to Arctic high. Decent attempt though
Gandalf The White
10 February 2024 00:01:20
I found this on the ECM website: 10hPa temperature ensemble mean forecast through to 24 Feb.  This is the view down over the North Pole.  Run the sequence to see the warming develop

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/medium-t10-mean-spread?base_time=202402091200&projection=opencharts_north_pole&valid_time=202402241200 

The mean wind forecast has extended the period of the reversal: https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202402090000 
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
fairweather
10 February 2024 00:13:43

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=2&time=240&run=18&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3 

great potential in this chart cold air building to NE - one last crack for the winter. Hope it will advect towards UK 

getting a 2018 feel about it but doesn’t quite link to Arctic high. Decent attempt though

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


I'd hope you are right but I would probably be better off investing in the straw market right now. 😀
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Gandalf The White
10 February 2024 00:39:01

I'd hope you are right but I would probably be better off investing in the straw market right now. 😀

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



LOL. Nothing to do with me - credit or blame ECM 🙂
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


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