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BJBlake
10 February 2024 07:16:02
GFS FI continues the tease for coldies, but with a drift back to favouring the cold to favour the north - as per this winter.
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
10 February 2024 08:36:56
Wx charts in week 1 continue to keep the cold weather to the north of Europe with a large mass of ultra cold in N Russia. In week 2 the ultra cold declines but in compensation colder (but not freezing) weather spreads down to the Alps, Balkans and Black Sea. Britain remains fairly mild though cold in N Scotland at first.  As for pptn week 1 looks familiar with heavy rain for Atlantic coastal countries; in week 2 a big change from yesterday with Europe mainly dry and Spain up to S England very dry.

GFS Op - the current LP slowly drifts N-ward leading to a week with a messy collection of shallow LPs coming in from the Atlantic. Pressure begins to rise near Britain Sat 17th reaching 1040mb Tue 20th centred N Sea, persisting though tending to move W-wards. Only at the end, Mon 26th. does it collapse with LP Norwegian Sea 970 mb threatening Arctic N-lies. (In some ways GFS is catching up with yesterday's ECM)

ECM - similar to GFS but HP Tue 20th stays over France and LP still brushing N Scotland.

GEFS - cool to start with, mild for next week to Sun 18th (Scotland slower to see rise in temp) with quite good ens agreement, then the the usual range either side of mean which is on the norm. Rain mostly a few days either side of Thu 15th, , heaviest in S, and in some ens members later on (could be snow then in far N).
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
Brian Gaze
10 February 2024 09:20:20

GFS FI continues the tease for coldies, but with a drift back to favouring the cold to favour the north - as per this winter.

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 



I don't think it out of the question that even parts of southern Britain could record another ground frost before spring proper arrives. 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+2
roadrunnerajn
10 February 2024 09:59:11
The way things are going they’ll probably give it a amber warning…
Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic.
+1
The Beast from the East
10 February 2024 10:43:18

GFS FI continues the tease for coldies, but with a drift back to favouring the cold to favour the north - as per this winter.

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 



The latest run is more like ECM and a warm plume more likely. Hopefully we can have another late Feb like 2018 or was it 2019 when we broke the 21C barrier
 
"We have some alternative facts for you"
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johncs2016
10 February 2024 11:02:15

The latest run is more like ECM and a warm plume more likely. Hopefully we can have another late Feb like 2018 or was it 2019 when we broke the 21C barrier
 

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



That was in 2019 and even during this so-called "winter", we came very close to getting 20°C up in NE Scotland during January.

February 2018 on the other hand, was the Beast from the East period when we had ice days at Edinburgh Gogarbank not only at the end of that February, but also at the beginning of the following March which meteorologically, is part of the following spring.

Going by the latest model output though, I can't see that happening this year and of course, this has now left Mark Vogan scratching his head a bit as he's now starting to admit that the much colder end to this winter which he was anticipating is now looking increasingly unlikely to happen.

 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
David M Porter
10 February 2024 11:19:20
The very fact that the GFS 06z op is very different to the 00z only serves to highlight how much uncertainty there is for later in February. All output beyond a week ahead (sometimes less than that) is open to question in normal circumstances, but with another SSW happening or about to get underway, I would suggest it is even more open to question.

I'm not a betting man, but if I was I wouldn't be wanting to make any bets at this time on what happens later this month until there is a clear and sustained consensus, one way or another, among the models from one run to the next.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
tallyho_83
10 February 2024 11:45:09
Despite yet another SSW and split of PV and reversal, we are in El Nino winter, negative -AO/NAO and easterly QBO, weaker zonal winds, blocking right over the pole etc! - YET we still can't get any appreciable amounts of HLB and cold weather? What is the issue here....anyone?
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


+1
Rob K
10 February 2024 11:54:12

Despite yet another SSW and split of PV and reversal, we are in El Nino winter, negative -AO/NAO and easterly QBO, weaker zonal winds, blocking right over the pole etc! - YET we still can't get any appreciable amounts of HLB and cold weather? What is the issue here....anyone?

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 



The fact that the North Atlantic sea surface temperature is literally off the charts and has been for over a year is probably something to do with it. 

The root cause quite possibly being the “clean up” of shipping fuels reducing the sulfur content which previously had a cooling effect across the oceans. 

Off topic of course but I don’t think you can discuss model performance without considering the massive forcing that having the seas immediately to our west more anomalously warm  than at any time in recorded history will have on the actual weather. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gandalf The White
10 February 2024 12:00:39

Despite yet another SSW and split of PV and reversal, we are in El Nino winter, negative AO/NAO and easterly QBO YET we still can't get any appreciable amounts of HLB? What is the issue here ....anyone?

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 



None of them are significant factors, even taken together.  As I understand it, they just tip the scales slightly towards favouring colder, more blocked patterns.  Plus, my understanding is that the El Niño signal weakens when it’s rather stronger, as is currently the case (although it’s now ebbing away slowly towards neutral).  For SSWs we know the consequences are unpredictable: what is the time lag?  Will it produce HLB? Will it be in the right place to bring cold air to the British Isles?  

Then, we have SSTs across the North Atlantic about 1-2c above normal (and 3-4c above from the Azores towards Iberia).

How many variables influence our weather and what is the relative weighting of each?  The drivers you refer to have to be seen in the broader context.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
tallyho_83
10 February 2024 12:27:45

None of them are significant factors, even taken together.  As I understand it, they just tip the scales slightly towards favouring colder, more blocked patterns.  Plus, my understanding is that the El Niño signal weakens when it’s rather stronger, as is currently the case (although it’s now ebbing away slowly towards neutral).  For SSWs we know the consequences are unpredictable: what is the time lag?  Will it produce HLB? Will it be in the right place to bring cold air to the British Isles?  

Then, we have SSTs across the North Atlantic about 1-2c above normal (and 3-4c above from the Azores towards Iberia).

How many variables influence our weather and what is the relative weighting of each?  The drivers you refer to have to be seen in the broader context.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



El Nino favours a back loaded winter-colder end).

Right so really we want to see a cooler N Atlantic? I remember in 2017/18 the Atlantic was much cooler or colder than average and since then it has been warmer than average. Do you think this is the reason why we are not able to see any appreciable cold weather since winter of 2017/2018?
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Gandalf The White
10 February 2024 12:46:38

El Nino favours a back loaded winter-colder end).

Right so really we want to see a cooler N Atlantic? I remember in 2017/18 the Atlantic was much cooler or colder than average and since then it has been warmer than average. Do you think this is the reason why we are not able to see any appreciable cold weather since winter of 2017/2018?

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 



Yes, El Niño ‘favours’ colder weather later in the winter, but that’s only in the sense of increasing the odds from pretty poor to less poor. I think there’s a danger of overestimating the change in probability.   The Met Office winter forecast talked, IIRC, of something like a doubling of the chances, from 20% to 40%.

I think, as other have discussed in here, that against the background global warming of 0.1-0.2c per decade, it has to be harder to get very cold air to our shores.  We have the triple whammy of the sources of the very cold air shrinking and becoming less cold, the seas becoming warmer, so the lower layers of the air masses are modified more, plus higher CO2 levels mean that more energy is being retained when the sun shines.  None of them are significant on their own, but collectively they must play a part, I think.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
tallyho_83
10 February 2024 12:53:24

Yes, El Niño ‘favours’ colder weather later in the winter, but that’s only in the sense of increasing the odds from pretty poor to less poor. I think there’s a danger of overestimating the change in probability.   The Met Office winter forecast talked, IIRC, of something like a doubling of the chances, from 20% to 40%.

I think, as other have discussed in here, that against the background global warming of 0.1-0.2c per decade, it has to be harder to get very cold air to our shores.  We have the triple whammy of the sources of the very cold air shrinking and becoming less cold, the seas becoming warmer, so the lower layers of the air masses are modified more, plus higher CO2 levels mean that more energy is being retained when the sun shines.  None of them are significant on their own, but collectively they must play a part, I think.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

#

Yet no issues with cold weather for Scandinavia, East Europe, Baltic states and western Russia etc No issues with cold weather in Canada and Asian esp China and Japan etc. Many of these places seeing record cold weather. It seems like we were sososo soooo close to the cold to our NE yet so far...
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


The Dub Version
10 February 2024 13:04:20
I'm calling it. Winter is over for the South. Good luck to those chasing day 10!
Berkshire
+2
CField
10 February 2024 14:54:51

The fact that the North Atlantic sea surface temperature is literally off the charts and has been for over a year is probably something to do with it. 

The root cause quite possibly being the “clean up” of shipping fuels reducing the sulfur content which previously had a cooling effect across the oceans. 

Off topic of course but I don’t think you can discuss model performance without considering the massive forcing that having the seas immediately to our west more anomalously warm  than at any time in recorded history will have on the actual weather. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

I think our summers autumns have a big part to play in how our winters pan out. From March to early August southern areas had a mostly poor unsettled summer compared to recent years.If that maritime trend had  continued maybe things would have turned out different but as others have previously posted  the weather reset to hot humid oppressive sweatbox conditions for September and much of October so this winter was always on a back-burner...there are the issues of heights travelling north after early winter late autumn cold spells....very complex
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Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
David M Porter
10 February 2024 17:53:10

The very fact that the GFS 06z op is very different to the 00z only serves to highlight how much uncertainty there is for later in February. All output beyond a week ahead (sometimes less than that) is open to question in normal circumstances, but with another SSW happening or about to get underway, I would suggest it is even more open to question.

I'm not a betting man, but if I was I wouldn't be wanting to make any bets at this time on what happens later this month until there is a clear and sustained consensus, one way or another, among the models from one run to the next.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 



And to highlight the above further, GFS 12z op is again very different to the 06Z.

For me at least, all bets are off in terms of what happens later in February given the current output.
 
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
BJBlake
10 February 2024 23:10:37

Despite yet another SSW and split of PV and reversal, we are in El Nino winter, negative -AO/NAO and easterly QBO, weaker zonal winds, blocking right over the pole etc! - YET we still can't get any appreciable amounts of HLB and cold weather? What is the issue here....anyone?

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 



Great post: when the climate changes so fast that not even our fast moving technology can keep up, you’ll have models that mislead, tease and chip and change: they just can’t cope with the anomalous background data. Hot seas are a symptom - and the SSWs area a symptom, and so too is the displaced cold to mid latitudes - just not ours because of the seas - but those continental places without sea modification!! The models don’t stand a chance and we might  as well be back to pattern matching, as it’s all delivering contradiction  in the light of the galloping climate change. We need interventions on a global scale: but were we to get the right pressure pattern - there is cold  air around to reach us, but the Synoptics are so much harder to achieve this.   
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
Gandalf The White
10 February 2024 23:34:56

Great post: when the climate changes so fast that not even our fast moving technology can keep up, you’ll have models that mislead, tease and chip and change: they just can’t cope with the anomalous background data. Hot seas are a symptom - and the SSWs area a symptom, and so too is the displaced cold to mid latitudes - just not ours because of the seas - but those continental places without sea modification!! The models don’t stand a chance and we might  as well be back to pattern matching, as it’s all delivering contradiction  in the light of the galloping climate change. We need interventions on a global scale: but were we to get the right pressure pattern - there is cold  air around to reach us, but the Synoptics are so much harder to achieve this.   

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 



This is simply not true.  The models work on the laws of physics and the actual observed data is fed into the models: if SSTs are higher then that’s what the models use.

If this wasn’t the case then how did the models correctly predict intense cyclogenesis and intense rainfall?
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


David M Porter
11 February 2024 00:06:20

Despite yet another SSW and split of PV and reversal, we are in El Nino winter, negative -AO/NAO and easterly QBO, weaker zonal winds, blocking right over the pole etc! - YET we still can't get any appreciable amounts of HLB and cold weather? What is the issue here....anyone?

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 



With respect, I think you might be better waiting another few weeks before making a post such as this.🙂

Given the output we are seeing at the moment, IMHO nothing should be ruled in or out for the second half of February. As I mentioned earlier, there is way too much uncertainty in the models at the moment for later in the month from what I am seeing. I'm not saying we are definitely going to get a repeat of what happened at the end of Feb/start of March in 2018, but I see nothing in the models right now to suggest that a return to a long zonal spell like we saw in December & start of January and the unsettled spell of the last three weeks is a nailed-on certainty either.

Some chill pills are needed in this thread just now, methinks.😁
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
BJBlake
11 February 2024 00:18:14

With respect, I think you might be better waiting another few weeks before making a post such as this.🙂

Given the output we are seeing at the moment, IMHO nothing should be ruled in or out for the second half of February. As I mentioned earlier, there is way too much uncertainty in the models at the moment for later in the month from what I am seeing. I'm not saying we are definitely going to get a repeat of what happened at the end of Feb/start of March in 2018, but I see nothing in the models right now to suggest that a return to a long zonal spell like we saw in December & start of January and the unsettled spell of the last three weeks is a nailed-on certainty either.

Some chill pills are needed in this thread just now, methinks.😁

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 



Oh how I do hope you are right David.Hope burns eternal!
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
BJBlake
11 February 2024 00:27:22



This is simply not true.  The models work on the laws of physics and the actual observed data is fed into the models: if SSTs are higher then that’s what the models use.

If this wasn’t the case then how did the models correctly predict intense cyclogenesis and intense rainfall?

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



You have me there Peter. I cannot disagree with your point. However, I don’t think I remember a time when the models have chopped and changed so wildly over cold and mild scenarios. Yet it is seemingly always the milder end of these scenarios that verifies. If the models have the correct data, then it is simply that the weather has got more chaotic and faster churning than in the past - perhaps due to the added heat. I don't know, I just hypothesise to try to explain what we witness. i don't pretend to have the answers, but the subject is fascinating. Moreover, the warming is deeply sad for cold weather fans, but tragic for ecosystems, and ultimately for people too, living with the consequences of it.
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
+1
BJBlake
11 February 2024 00:39:38
Of the GFS 18z (pub run), 10 perts of the 22 (including the Op) have a cold FI ending, connoting a 50% ish chance for David’s hope to be verified. Fingers - and by now eyes too - are all crossed.
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
picturesareme
11 February 2024 02:32:51

I'm calling it. Winter is over for the South. Good luck to those chasing day 10!

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 



Agreed not so much as a grass frost in the forecast. 
Daffodils have been flowering for a couple of weeks now, the cherry plum tree's are in bloom, and some of the fat magnolia buds are looking like they could open any day now. 
​​​​​
At the end of the day whether you like it or not early spring has arrived a couple of weeks early this year down here south of the M4.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
11 February 2024 08:12:00
WX charts have stepped back from late yesterday when cold weather was forecast to spread into Europe in week 2. Today it shows all of W Europe except Norway above norm in week 1 and still some very cold conditions over Russia. In week 2 the latter disappears, but there is a modest advance of the cold air - but only as far as Poland. Britain just a tad cooler than at present. Rainfall pattern has also changed and Britain is no longer dry in week 2. Now for week 1 there is a band of rain from the Atlantic across Britain to the Baltic; in week 2 it's still over Britain but heading for the Alps and Aegean.

GFS Op - HP for the next 2 weeks shown further S than yesterday, generally around Spain at about 1025mb. Weak LPs and troughs pass over or close to Britain (1000mb Cornwall Thu 15th, again Thu 22nd) with a weak zonal W-ly between. Possibility of HP for Britain from the south from Mon 29th.

ECM - similar on a broad view;  but the LP is Fri 16th not the 15th, and that near the 22nd is a trough from the north. Between these ECM shows pressure quite high over Britain (as much as 1030 mb Sun 18th) and less of a W-ly.

GEFS - becoming mild and quite often wet from Tue 13th in the SE, less mild and later elsewhere, but temp steadily dropping away with the mean 3 or 4 C below norm everywhere by Mon 29th (the op is one of the milder runs). Not much ens agreement after 4 or 5 days.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
BJBlake
11 February 2024 08:56:26
GFS 0z Op backs away from a cold, SSW induced, plunge. However, there are still 10 pert’s that show a cold end. 50%, but not really the control either. Just for Fun: P2 being one of the best for eye candy - snowy and unsettled for some.
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
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