theweatheroutlook

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Ally Pally Snowman
12 February 2024 10:27:59

Assuming we can avoid the cloud it should be glorious and warm next weekend in the south at least

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 



Indeed the latest GFS 6z has 15/16c Thursday, Saturday and Sunday.  You can normally add 2c ish to that.  If its sunny will feel great.
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
doctormog
12 February 2024 10:50:49

Beginning to look a lot like Spring 

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 



Next weekend, then winter the weekend after? 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Ally Pally Snowman
12 February 2024 12:13:18

Next weekend, then winter the weekend after? 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Just looks annoyingly cool down here. Probably cool enough to stop us breaking the February CET record. Certainly not proper winter weather. I'm hoping we avoid it altogether and break the 250 year record.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=gfs&var=5&run=6&lid=ENS&bw=1 

 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
picturesareme
12 February 2024 13:39:19

Next weekend, then winter the weekend after? 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Next weekend? 😁 It's already arrived here - it came a couple of weeks early thanks to the mild few weeks. It probably won't arrive for a few more weeks in your far away lands.
In all seriousness the sun's angle in the sky/ energy output now is around what it will be your way in around 3 weeks time so even if chilly weather was to return it would be offset by the sun. We would need very cold weather now to put a halt to spring.
tallyho_83
12 February 2024 17:28:51
Not a dicky bird about any of the 12z models on here?..hmm..🤔
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


nsrobins
12 February 2024 18:41:08
If it’s any comfort the GEFS mean post 10days is colder than what looks like a significantly mild OP cw. the mean.
Still (plenty) of ‘winter’ to go - plus the bonus of an extra day 😂
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
tallyho_83
12 February 2024 20:46:15

If it’s any comfort the GEFS mean post 10days is colder than what looks like a significantly mild OP cw. the mean.
Still (plenty) of ‘winter’ to go - plus the bonus of an extra day 😂

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Clutching at straws!" 😀
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


+1
UncleAlbert
13 February 2024 00:19:19

If it’s any comfort the GEFS mean post 10days is colder than what looks like a significantly mild OP cw. the mean.
Still (plenty) of ‘winter’ to go - plus the bonus of an extra day 😂

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Oh, and an extra 30 days in April 😊
Retron
13 February 2024 04:44:01
If the past few GFS runs are anything to go by, looks like we're in for yet more storms, with secondaries zipping across the UK and bringing gales, including in the south. Deep joy - it's already been the stormiest winter for many years, and it looks like it's not finished yet!



 
Leysdown, north Kent
BJBlake
13 February 2024 06:43:46

If the past few GFS runs are anything to go by, looks like we're in for yet more storms, with secondaries zipping across the UK and bringing gales, including in the south. Deep joy - it's already been the stormiest winter for many years, and it looks like it's not finished yet!
 

Originally Posted by: Retron 

 
Yes - lovely! Not. Looks like a cool down to unsettled April showers towards the latter third of the month too. No deep cold - but some wintriness in the showers, probably soft hail embedded and snow on hills in the NW. This is all the SSW has brought this year.
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
BJBlake
13 February 2024 06:49:02
Odd protrusion of sea ice showing NE of Iceland on the GFS sea ice and snow chart. Is this one of the sinking wells of the North Atlantic Drift shutting down??? Never seen this occur before.
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
scillydave
13 February 2024 07:52:03

Odd protrusion of sea ice showing NE of Iceland on the GFS sea ice and snow chart. Is this one of the sinking wells of the North Atlantic Drift shutting down??? Never seen this occur before.

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 



It's the Odden ice tongue, it appears briefly in most winters and is associated with an area of reduced salinity in the water hence freezing more easily.  Usually very thin and fragile ice.
Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
+2
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
13 February 2024 08:04:40

It's the Odden ice tongue, it appears briefly in most winters and is associated with an area of reduced salinity in the water hence freezing more easily.  Usually very thin and fragile ice.

Originally Posted by: scillydave 



More info on Wiki https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenland_Sea#Odden_ice_tongue 
and https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?topic=1804.0 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
13 February 2024 08:40:04
WX charts for week 1 as previously, cold across the north, from S scandinavia to N Ukraine, with some very cold areas in the far NE, abve norm for most of Europe. Week 2 shows the instability of climate models at the moment; yesterday this was forecast to continue but today the colder (but not freezing) air escapes to cover NW Europe down as far as N Spain. Britain is distinctly colder and the Highlands get their own 'blue blob'. Pptn in week 1 as before, Atlantic - Britain - Baltic, and the previous shift S-wrds on week 2 is still there but further S, Atlantic - Britain - Pyrenees - Adriatic and very heavy in the last two areas.

GFS Op - to start with, much as yesterday with HP to the south and weak troughs making their way across Britain to Fri 16th. The HP then intensifies to cover Britain until Tue 20th, when a dramatic change, a piece of the LP which has been sitting near Greenland breaks off and appears over Britain Wed 21st bringing notably cold air with it (twin centres 975mb Scotland and 970mb S Ireland). After a couple of days re-arranging, this forms Sat 24th into a major area of LP 970mb E Iceland linked to 965mb N Sea with strong N-lies for Britain, persisting to Tue 27th 980mb N Sea and gales all the way down through Biscay. At this date it begins to fill with milder weather approaching from the Atlantic.

ECM - has little of this dramatic development. Wed 21st sees the LP as a shallow trough off W Ireland drifting E-wards  across Britain 1005mb Thu 22nd N England with no link to any of the much colder air east of Iceland. Another GFS phantom northerly? Though the northerly is in this case supported by JMA and to a lesser extent by GEM models.

GEFS - mild (very mild in the S)for the next few days, dropping to norm Tue 20th and then to 2 or 3C below norm for the following week, with quite good clustering of ens members throughout. Pptn in various runs at various times, getting more frequent and heavier later. Snow row figures from about Sat 24th range from 7/33 on the S Coast to 14/33 Scotland, greater in the Highlands
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
Quantum
13 February 2024 10:25:16
https://snipboard.io/UIDbAj.jpg
UserPostedImage

Upper trop analysis, best case scenario.

The wave 2 pattern sticks around for a while. By the 20th the Mid atlantic ridge has joined with the beufort and there is a deep arctic high. In the best case scenario the high and the ridge move westward and slice a piece of the western PV off sending it south and eventually to be absorbed by the siberian part. Depending on how the surface pattern responds this opens us to a northerly or north easterly by the 24th. 


 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
13 February 2024 10:38:29
GFS6Z does the above scenario pretty well.
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
nsrobins
13 February 2024 10:48:46
There’s a little bit of traction now in the idea of the main jet axis aligned Northwest Southeast to the south of the UK and a displaced Az high from day eight.
This is not a reaction to the proposed technical SSW as this is not expected until around the 20th and it would need to be a world record rapid response to imprint in a day on the lower layers. Interesting however to see if this idea develops.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Quantum
13 February 2024 11:00:08

There’s a little bit of traction now in the idea of the main jet axis aligned Northwest Southeast to the south of the UK and a displaced Az high from day eight.
This is not a reaction to the proposed technical SSW as this is not expected until around the 20th and it would need to be a world record rapid response to imprint in a day on the lower layers. Interesting however to see if this idea develops.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Agreed, tbh I have got less interested over the years in the stratosphere. Strat-Trop coupling just isn't all that. The upper trop below the tropopause is far far more interesting.
 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
ballamar
13 February 2024 11:50:29
Am sure someone said winter is over though! Could be some chilly weather coming up - imagine northern areas having some decent falls and cold temps
Retron
13 February 2024 11:55:54
The GFS forecasts temperatures in the mid to high 40s (celcius) over Finland and Russia - and it has done for a few runs now.

https://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/strat.php?run=2024021300&var=TMP&lev=1mb&hour=252 

Yes, it's right at the top of the stratosphere - but it's very impressive nonetheless. Can't say I've ever seen forecast temperatures that high before, normally the mid 30s is as far as it ever gets!
Leysdown, north Kent
Ally Pally Snowman
13 February 2024 12:00:11
ECM not really interested in a cold spell down here yet.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=ecm&var=5&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
Ally Pally Snowman
13 February 2024 12:05:41

ECM not really interested in a cold spell down here yet.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=ecm&var=5&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 




GFS 6Z bit colder but not very exciting really.  More just miserable cold wet.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=gfs&var=5&run=6&lid=ENS&bw=1 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Quantum
13 February 2024 15:32:02
ICON12Z continues this same uppertrop pattern.

I think 22nd onwards and especially 24th onwards looks good for a northerly or north easterly.
 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
13 February 2024 16:05:52
The upper trop pattern also looks good so far on GFS12Z.
 
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Retron
13 February 2024 16:57:20
While the GFS continues to show interesting synoptics longer-term (albeit on the wrong side of marginal for snow down here), it also continues with showing stormy conditions. Sod's law says the latter will verify, of course!

Sample chart from the 12z, showing high 60s gusts in the far south, with high 70s just offshore - these high winds having crossed SW England earlier.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/30/11827/210_289UKlga8.GIF 
UserPostedImage
Leysdown, north Kent
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