Indeed the latest GFS 6z has 15/16c Thursday, Saturday and Sunday.  You can normally add 2c ish to that.  If its sunny will feel great.
 

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Next weekend, then winter the weekend after? 

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Just looks annoyingly cool down here. Probably cool enough to stop us breaking the February CET record. Certainly not proper winter weather. I'm hoping we avoid it altogether and break the 250 year record.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=gfs&var=5&run=6&lid=ENS&bw=1 

 

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Next weekend? 😁 It's already arrived here - it came a couple of weeks early thanks to the mild few weeks. It probably won't arrive for a few more weeks in your far away lands.
In all seriousness the sun's angle in the sky/ energy output now is around what it will be your way in around 3 weeks time so even if chilly weather was to return it would be offset by the sun. We would need very cold weather now to put a halt to spring.

Not a dicky bird about any of the 12z models on here?..hmm..🤔

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If it’s any comfort the GEFS mean post 10days is colder than what looks like a significantly mild OP cw. the mean.
Still (plenty) of ‘winter’ to go - plus the bonus of an extra day 😂

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Clutching at straws!" 😀

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Oh, and an extra 30 days in April 😊

If the past few GFS runs are anything to go by, looks like we're in for yet more storms, with secondaries zipping across the UK and bringing gales, including in the south. Deep joy - it's already been the stormiest winter for many years, and it looks like it's not finished yet!



 

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Yes - lovely! Not. Looks like a cool down to unsettled April showers towards the latter third of the month too. No deep cold - but some wintriness in the showers, probably soft hail embedded and snow on hills in the NW. This is all the SSW has brought this year.

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Odd protrusion of sea ice showing NE of Iceland on the GFS sea ice and snow chart. Is this one of the sinking wells of the North Atlantic Drift shutting down??? Never seen this occur before.

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It's the Odden ice tongue, it appears briefly in most winters and is associated with an area of reduced salinity in the water hence freezing more easily.  Usually very thin and fragile ice.

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More info on Wiki https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenland_Sea#Odden_ice_tongue 
and https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?topic=1804.0 

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WX charts for week 1 as previously, cold across the north, from S scandinavia to N Ukraine, with some very cold areas in the far NE, abve norm for most of Europe. Week 2 shows the instability of climate models at the moment; yesterday this was forecast to continue but today the colder (but not freezing) air escapes to cover NW Europe down as far as N Spain. Britain is distinctly colder and the Highlands get their own 'blue blob'. Pptn in week 1 as before, Atlantic - Britain - Baltic, and the previous shift S-wrds on week 2 is still there but further S, Atlantic - Britain - Pyrenees - Adriatic and very heavy in the last two areas.

GFS Op - to start with, much as yesterday with HP to the south and weak troughs making their way across Britain to Fri 16th. The HP then intensifies to cover Britain until Tue 20th, when a dramatic change, a piece of the LP which has been sitting near Greenland breaks off and appears over Britain Wed 21st bringing notably cold air with it (twin centres 975mb Scotland and 970mb S Ireland). After a couple of days re-arranging, this forms Sat 24th into a major area of LP 970mb E Iceland linked to 965mb N Sea with strong N-lies for Britain, persisting to Tue 27th 980mb N Sea and gales all the way down through Biscay. At this date it begins to fill with milder weather approaching from the Atlantic.

ECM - has little of this dramatic development. Wed 21st sees the LP as a shallow trough off W Ireland drifting E-wards  across Britain 1005mb Thu 22nd N England with no link to any of the much colder air east of Iceland. Another GFS phantom northerly? Though the northerly is in this case supported by JMA and to a lesser extent by GEM models.

GEFS - mild (very mild in the S)for the next few days, dropping to norm Tue 20th and then to 2 or 3C below norm for the following week, with quite good clustering of ens members throughout. Pptn in various runs at various times, getting more frequent and heavier later. Snow row figures from about Sat 24th range from 7/33 on the S Coast to 14/33 Scotland, greater in the Highlands

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https://snipboard.io/UIDbAj.jpg


Upper trop analysis, best case scenario.

The wave 2 pattern sticks around for a while. By the 20th the Mid atlantic ridge has joined with the beufort and there is a deep arctic high. In the best case scenario the high and the ridge move westward and slice a piece of the western PV off sending it south and eventually to be absorbed by the siberian part. Depending on how the surface pattern responds this opens us to a northerly or north easterly by the 24th. 


 

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GFS6Z does the above scenario pretty well.

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There’s a little bit of traction now in the idea of the main jet axis aligned Northwest Southeast to the south of the UK and a displaced Az high from day eight.
This is not a reaction to the proposed technical SSW as this is not expected until around the 20th and it would need to be a world record rapid response to imprint in a day on the lower layers. Interesting however to see if this idea develops.

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Agreed, tbh I have got less interested over the years in the stratosphere. Strat-Trop coupling just isn't all that. The upper trop below the tropopause is far far more interesting.
 

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Am sure someone said winter is over though! Could be some chilly weather coming up - imagine northern areas having some decent falls and cold temps

The GFS forecasts temperatures in the mid to high 40s (celcius) over Finland and Russia - and it has done for a few runs now.

https://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/strat.php?run=2024021300&var=TMP&lev=1mb&hour=252 

Yes, it's right at the top of the stratosphere - but it's very impressive nonetheless. Can't say I've ever seen forecast temperatures that high before, normally the mid 30s is as far as it ever gets!

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ECM not really interested in a cold spell down here yet.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=ecm&var=5&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

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GFS 6Z bit colder but not very exciting really.  More just miserable cold wet.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50893&model=gfs&var=5&run=6&lid=ENS&bw=1 

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ICON12Z continues this same uppertrop pattern.

I think 22nd onwards and especially 24th onwards looks good for a northerly or north easterly.
 

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The upper trop pattern also looks good so far on GFS12Z.
 

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While the GFS continues to show interesting synoptics longer-term (albeit on the wrong side of marginal for snow down here), it also continues with showing stormy conditions. Sod's law says the latter will verify, of course!

Sample chart from the 12z, showing high 60s gusts in the far south, with high 70s just offshore - these high winds having crossed SW England earlier.

https://images.meteociel.fr/im/30/11827/210_289UKlga8.GIF 

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