theweatheroutlook

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CField
13 February 2024 17:10:28

ICON12Z continues this same uppertrop pattern.

I think 22nd onwards and especially 24th onwards looks good for a northerly or north easterly.
 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

despite this winter being mostly a disappointment, it could be a winter where I have seen snow fall every month which has been a rarity in recent years...
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
MRayner
13 February 2024 18:34:46
18z GEFS cluster still showing a below average cold period starting late feb, been pretty consistent over the last few days. We will see what happens as it comes into the 5to10 day range. 
Location Whisky 🥃 country, Cragganmore ,Moray, 440 AMSL
Quantum
13 February 2024 18:43:04

despite this winter being mostly a disappointment, it could be a winter where I have seen snow fall every month which has been a rarity in recent years...

Originally Posted by: CField 



See my sig for 2021/2022! 6 months is crazy but 8 is theoretically possible because I have seen snow in October and May.
 
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
+1
Brian Gaze
13 February 2024 19:08:15
GEFS 12Z is a downgrade, at least for the south.

UserPostedImage
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
DPower
13 February 2024 21:05:15
 6 days ago I posted that after a few days of the gfs fluffing around with the strat forecasts and profiles that it had hopefully set on the pattern for the way forward ( ok I was hoping). A very wide split down through the layers in a prime location. Yet here we are six days later and we are still none the wiser. Strat forecasts are normally more reliable due to there being being far more stability than what we see in the chaotic troposphere, but it seems as if there is no inter run consistency almost as bad as the trop modelling.
I for one am not sure how this is going to pan out (we could still get something out of this before its to late) but I would be a lot more confident if we saw a return of the peach run on the 07th showing an ideal split for our location. Unfortunately the extended range now shows a further warming which pushes part of the vortices form northern Europe/ western Russia  back west again we would probably only give us a limited window for northern blocking in a favourable location to the UK to benefit. 
I must admit though I would be more concerned if it was early January, where as now after such a poor winter I am not really fussed either way 
unless a true beast from the east was on the menu prior to the middle of March or so.

















0
Matty H
13 February 2024 22:37:02
Usual rubbish from the GFS in terms of its precipitation type at range. Wave after wave of west to east fronts carrying snow all the way south. Ok….
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
14 February 2024 08:00:47
WX charts copying from yesterday as there's little change, for week 1 as previously, cold across the north, from S scandinavia to N Ukraine, with some very cold areas in the far NE, above norm for most of Europe. In week 2  the colder (but not freezing) air escapes to cover NW Europe down as far as N Spain though less extensively than shown yesterday. Britain is distinctly colder and the Highlands get their own 'blue blob'. Pptn in week 1 as before, Atlantic - Britain - Baltic (less in the Baltic today), with a shift S-wards on week 2 to Atlantic - Britain - Pyrenees - Adriatic and very heavy in the last two areas.

GFS Op - weak troughs of LP around Britain for the next couple of days, then HP for the weekend (though there is an embedded weak trough near N Sea coasts on Sunday). From Wed 21st LP breaks away from its usual location in Iceland bringing very cold air with it, established Thu 22nd 965mb from Faeroes to southern N Sea with N-lies on its western flank covering Britain. This soon slides away to the east but is followed by a new LP from the NW crossing Britain to Denmark Mon 26th with brief NE-lies, before this second LP also moves E-wards with mild W-lies back Thu 29th.

ECM does not agree, keeping LP to the north (980mb Sutherland Thu 22nd and 990mb S Norway Sat 24th) and HP resilient at 1030mb in or near Biscay, consequently most of Britain except the far N and NE under a strong zonal W-ly and no suggestion of N-lies.

GEM takes an intermediate view, with the LP coming well south but as a larger area more to the west of Britain, thus strong W-lies for all but air definitely polar maritime, not mid-Atlantic.

GEFS - present mildness (v mild in S) down to norm around Thu 22nd  and mean temp then close to norm (or in the S slightly on the cool side) to end of Feb. Good clustering of runs but that breaking up around Mon 26th. No long dry spells, but most of the rain/snow w/b Mon 19th, with Scotland getting some major falls earlier. Snow row figures lower than yesterday and only really significant in the Highlands.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
nsrobins
14 February 2024 08:43:35
There is no greater indication of a naff model outlook than a very quiet thread.
The robust signal for a potent NNW flow has waned over the last few runs and EC this morning (not that it means much) has backed off quite a bit.
The search for ‘winter’ (or even an apprentice of winter) continues. . . 
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
+1
BJBlake
14 February 2024 08:50:22

There is no greater indication of a naff model outlook than a very quiet thread.
The robust signal for a potent NNW flow has waned over the last few runs and EC this morning (not that it means much) has backed off quite a bit.
The search for ‘winter’ (or even an apprentice of winter) continues. . . 

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



LOL - love it. There are still 50% of perts showing a cool down, with both the Op’ and control in the mix for fleeting near normal or rather cold polar maritime episodes (snow on hills), but only a few perts bring meaningful cold - pert 10 is today’s eye candy FI dream boat, albeit a far cry from the 2018 beast etc.
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
ballamar
14 February 2024 10:29:39
Reckon if you like stormy cold and wet then this period will be right up your street. Could be white in the north but miserable in the south.
+1
fairweather
14 February 2024 10:43:30

Reckon if you like stormy cold and wet then this period will be right up your street. Could be white in the north but miserable in the south.

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


No, I hate it. I will be glad to see the back of this dark, dull, damp and predominantly mild winter.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
+1
Retron
14 February 2024 10:54:15

Reckon if you like stormy cold and wet then this period will be right up your street. Could be white in the north but miserable in the south.

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


Stormy? Very likely.

Wet? Definitely.

Cold? We're still struggling to get even a frost down here and that doesn't look like changing once the weather switches back to a stormy and wet mode.

I've never known a winter with so much potential to wither away time and time again! It's still going on, of course, with the upcoming SSW - if it even happens - now looking like a "blink and you'll miss it" affair. Whereas 7-10 days ago it was looking like being a week long event!

The only upside of this is that it shows all the obsessing about MJO, mountain torque etc elsewhere to be absolute bunkum - there's no magic bullet, sadly. Even the so-called "AI" models haven't exactly covered themselves in glory, flipping around just as the regular ops have (they still have higher verification stats, but are just as apt to misjudge things).

It's almost as if the very rules of physics, as understood by the models, have changed! They really should be able to handle the warmer world which we now live in, but I do wonder sometimes...
Leysdown, north Kent
+2
tallyho_83
14 February 2024 11:13:05
Starting to give up - same for my love life!

Had SSW and yet another, in easterly QBO and in an El Nino favouring a back loaded winter and yet STILL not getting any HLB or cold ...in any of GFS models or ECM.

We have another split of PV which is due to take place around 19th - yet there is no sign of anything cold or at the very least drier. Just wet and windy and soon we will be in MARCH.😲 High of 14c today maybe 15c tomorrow. Just ridiculous!
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


ballamar
14 February 2024 11:23:46

Stormy? Very likely.

Wet? Definitely.

Cold? We're still struggling to get even a frost down here and that doesn't look like changing once the weather switches back to a stormy and wet mode.

I've never known a winter with so much potential to wither away time and time again! It's still going on, of course, with the upcoming SSW - if it even happens - now looking like a "blink and you'll miss it" affair. Whereas 7-10 days ago it was looking like being a week long event!

The only upside of this is that it shows all the obsessing about MJO, mountain torque etc elsewhere to be absolute bunkum - there's no magic bullet, sadly. Even the so-called "AI" models haven't exactly covered themselves in glory, flipping around just as the regular ops have (they still have higher verification stats, but are just as apt to misjudge things).

It's almost as if the very rules of physics, as understood by the models, have changed! They really should be able to handle the warmer world which we now live in, but I do wonder sometimes...

Originally Posted by: Retron 



of course that should have said chilly but feeling cold!
Hippydave
14 February 2024 11:37:03
(straw clutch mode)
GFS 6z op in the mid to longer term shows the kind of setup that can bring transient surprise snowfall to some areas, principally northern Midlands and further north, favouring higher ground but not exclusively. Unsettled, low pressure driven with 850s wobbling around -3 to -5 and frontal precipitation should spring a few surprises, even if it's very short lived away from the hills.

(End straw clutch mode)

IMBY the pattern looks mild and wet, briefly mild and a bit drier then transitioning to average to chilly and wet according to the GFS op. Recent ens sets across all models broadly backing this up. As some have mentioned there's a decent chance of some strong winds at times pretty much anywhere in this kind of pattern too. 

The chilly unsettled stuff is usually just miserable down here although we're sneaking towards higher solar input in the far south, so we could get a bit more in the way of interesting convection if there's enough sunny spells. That's probably more a minor factor as we head to the end of the month and early March. 

Not a lot to get excited about from a cold POV, lots to feel meh about if you're looking for an early and settled start to spring. I guess *if* the mid/long term pattern verifies it'll at least be good for snow for the scottish mountains, so decent skiing if it's not too windy. 

Strat wise and looking at ECM zonal winds we seem to have firmed up on another blink and you'll miss it affair with just a brief dip into negative territory. May be enough to interrupt the zonal flow I guess but may not - wouldn't surprise me if it just meant enough of a pause in the Atlantic jet profile to allow our mostly south based HP to nudge further north for a time before it's nudged back again. 

Glass not very full at all for me this morning!
 
Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
+2
Lionel Hutz
14 February 2024 12:16:47

Stormy? Very likely.

Wet? Definitely.

Cold? We're still struggling to get even a frost down here and that doesn't look like changing once the weather switches back to a stormy and wet mode.

I've never known a winter with so much potential to wither away time and time again! It's still going on, of course, with the upcoming SSW - if it even happens - now looking like a "blink and you'll miss it" affair. Whereas 7-10 days ago it was looking like being a week long event!

The only upside of this is that it shows all the obsessing about MJO, mountain torque etc elsewhere to be absolute bunkum - there's no magic bullet, sadly. Even the so-called "AI" models haven't exactly covered themselves in glory, flipping around just as the regular ops have (they still have higher verification stats, but are just as apt to misjudge things).

It's almost as if the very rules of physics, as understood by the models, have changed! They really should be able to handle the warmer world which we now live in, but I do wonder sometimes...

Originally Posted by: Retron 



While part of this may be that many of us put our snow blinkers on when we look at the charts, the very high Atlantic SST's must be a huge factor. When a synoptic situation looks good, they must make even a cold set up marginally milder. I am struck at how often even in fairly unremarkable synoptic situations like we have this week, the forecast temperatures are in the 11c to 14 c. More normal temperatures in the average "mild" set up would be closer to 9c to11c. It's been an unusual year and given the SST's it's surprising that the winter hasn't been milder - many Irish stations recorded below average January temperatures(albeit only marginally for most). 
Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



Quantum
14 February 2024 13:39:57
The upper trop pattern continues to support the possibility of a cold incursion around the 24th. Might do another full upper trop analysis later.
I know people are uninspired by the surface stuff but this is a good upper level pattern. The surface is forced by the upper trop so if you have a good upper trop then the surface can't stay bad for more than a few days (unfortunately the reverse is also true). Also models are better at predicting the upper levels compared to the lower levels.



UserPostedImage
 
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Chunky Pea
14 February 2024 13:50:20

No, I hate it. I will be glad to see the back of this dark, dull, damp and predominantly mild winter.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 



I like dark, stormy weather and we didn't even get any of that this winter. Only one evening with observed thunder, with little to no hail. Wish I had the freedom and means to move to the US midwest. A place that actually has a climate. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
overland
14 February 2024 13:50:40

Stormy? Very likely.

Wet? Definitely.

Cold? We're still struggling to get even a frost down here and that doesn't look like changing once the weather switches back to a stormy and wet mode.

I've never known a winter with so much potential to wither away time and time again! It's still going on, of course, with the upcoming SSW - if it even happens - now looking like a "blink and you'll miss it" affair. Whereas 7-10 days ago it was looking like being a week long event!

The only upside of this is that it shows all the obsessing about MJO, mountain torque etc elsewhere to be absolute bunkum - there's no magic bullet, sadly. Even the so-called "AI" models haven't exactly covered themselves in glory, flipping around just as the regular ops have (they still have higher verification stats, but are just as apt to misjudge things).

It's almost as if the very rules of physics, as understood by the models, have changed! They really should be able to handle the warmer world which we now live in, but I do wonder sometimes...

Originally Posted by: Retron 



I now skip past any posts on teleconnections. Someone on Netweather put it very well in that there is little point in looking for the "triggers" of potential cold (or any weather) as it's best to just focus on the the ops and ensembles - more of the latter than the former. I can only assume that it's possible to draw some macro scale conclusions from teleconnections, but it's not much use for the micro scale of South Wales or even the UK. 

We've had a couple of good frosts here, but not a single flake of snow, so hoping that the unstable NW flow that keeps showing up on GFS comes to fruition. The lateness of this would not be surprising as many times over the recent past, March as been the snowiest month -  last year we had a couple of cms of lying snow on the 8th. 
Mumbles, Swansea. 80m asl
fairweather
14 February 2024 15:28:23
Whilst the long term trend into March is looking somewhat colder does anybody really want that now? It would need to be of Beast intensity to be worth more than nuisance value so from now on I will be looking for warm signals and a cheerful Spring and forgetting about this abysmal winter.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
+2
Retron
14 February 2024 16:06:02

Whilst the long term trend into March is looking somewhat colder does anybody really want that now?

Originally Posted by: fairweather 


Yes, I do. I like cold weather no matter the season, and besides - it's so rare to get a cold month these days that any time we do should be celebrated!

The only thing from March onwards is that snow on the ground becomes impossible here, unless it was already there in February (see 2005 and 2018).

(As ever, it'd take -10 or below at 850 for snowfall to be more likely than rain, and it's noteworthy how the sub -10 GEFS runs have all but vanished in the last day or two... before then there were quite a few, and even a run of -15s for a few runs. It'll be different further north, of course).
Leysdown, north Kent
+1
Retron
14 February 2024 16:14:08

I now skip past any posts on teleconnections. Someone on Netweather put it very well in that there is little point in looking for the "triggers" of potential cold (or any weather) as it's best to just focus on the the ops and ensembles - more of the latter than the former. I can only assume that it's possible to draw some macro scale conclusions from teleconnections, but it's not much use for the micro scale of South Wales or even the UK.

Originally Posted by: overland 


That's the sensible approach!

Truth be told the search for a "holy grail" has been going on for at least 25 years, if not longer. 20 years ago it was the SSTs in May which people looked at (including the Met Office at the time), then there was the saga of the OPI (October Pattern Index) ten years ago. Some Italian scientists came up with that one, and it had near-perfect hindcasting ability. Of course going forwards it was completely useless, and was never heard from again.

The MJO is massively overrated and is just a way of looking at rainfall charts. Now it may be the case that rainfall in a certain area leads to a greater chance of the Pacific jet behaving in a certain way and a possible effect on us downstream, but there's so much of the atmopshere between there and here that the signal, weak to begin with, gets diluted all the more. And as the MJO is just a way of looking at rainfall, predictions of it are just as likely to be wonky as any other model parameter (pressure, for example).

There are some events which have more of an effect. We know full well that SSWs, particularly a split in the vortex rather than a displacement, have a good chance of "shuffling the deck", so to speak, but not always in our favour. We also know that the elusive Scandinavian High can form without an SSW, and even end up leading to one (see 1987).

If only it was as simple as saying an easterly QBO plus MJO in phase 7 or 8 and an SSW would lead to a cold spell! Mind you, it doesn't seem to matter where the AO/NAO, QBO, MJO, 60N/10hPa zonal winds or even sunspots are, it all seems to deliver record-breaking cold... to America! 😂

TBH I regard the detailed posts over teleconnections elsewhere as little more than snake oil. If it really were possible some people would be very, very rich by now, and the Met Office would no doubt be crowing from the rooftops.

In a way, though, it's comforting to know that despite 40+ years of computer modelling, pattern-matching and more, we still don't really know what the weather will be doing in 3 weeks' time! And I daresay as long as I'm alive (another 25 years?) that won't change either...
Leysdown, north Kent
+8
BJBlake
15 February 2024 00:25:46
Pub run a bore-fest: Struggling to find any perts for eye candy in FI for a dream-boat ride. Pert 15 tries its best with a blocked ‘greenie’ and a northerly about to set in for the new month. Otherwise - just hoping the Op does not verify, as it suggests a vicious storm with 100mph winds - for the month close, along the south coast and with a nasty sting in its tail for the SE.
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
fairweather
15 February 2024 01:12:37
Enjoy the mild this week because there's nothing left to look forward to weather wise.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
CField
15 February 2024 06:05:15
After a drier very mild period, its looking like the UK will then suffer weeks of cold then stormy zonality being the meat in the sandwich between two highs.The eastern tongue of high gradually making its presence felt slowly to probably deliver an April 89 set up....days of very wet snow after a very mild winter...no accumulations!
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius

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