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David M Porter
15 February 2024 08:12:39

That's the sensible approach!

Truth be told the search for a "holy grail" has been going on for at least 25 years, if not longer. 20 years ago it was the SSTs in May which people looked at (including the Met Office at the time), then there was the saga of the OPI (October Pattern Index) ten years ago. Some Italian scientists came up with that one, and it had near-perfect hindcasting ability. Of course going forwards it was completely useless, and was never heard from again.

The MJO is massively overrated and is just a way of looking at rainfall charts. Now it may be the case that rainfall in a certain area leads to a greater chance of the Pacific jet behaving in a certain way and a possible effect on us downstream, but there's so much of the atmopshere between there and here that the signal, weak to begin with, gets diluted all the more. And as the MJO is just a way of looking at rainfall, predictions of it are just as likely to be wonky as any other model parameter (pressure, for example).

There are some events which have more of an effect. We know full well that SSWs, particularly a split in the vortex rather than a displacement, have a good chance of "shuffling the deck", so to speak, but not always in our favour. We also know that the elusive Scandinavian High can form without an SSW, and even end up leading to one (see 1987).

If only it was as simple as saying an easterly QBO plus MJO in phase 7 or 8 and an SSW would lead to a cold spell! Mind you, it doesn't seem to matter where the AO/NAO, QBO, MJO, 60N/10hPa zonal winds or even sunspots are, it all seems to deliver record-breaking cold... to America! 😂

TBH I regard the detailed posts over teleconnections elsewhere as little more than snake oil. If it really were possible some people would be very, very rich by now, and the Met Office would no doubt be crowing from the rooftops.

In a way, though, it's comforting to know that despite 40+ years of computer modelling, pattern-matching and more, we still don't really know what the weather will be doing in 3 weeks' time! And I daresay as long as I'm alive (another 25 years?) that won't change either...

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Re your last paragraph Darren, there are still occasions even these days when the models are not sure of what happens three days in advance, let alone three weeks. A lot depends on what synoptic set-up is in place at any one point in time, IMO.🙂
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Brian Gaze
15 February 2024 08:18:04
GEFS appears to have ditched any notion of cold weather this month, at least in the south.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
15 February 2024 08:25:39
WX - week 1 temps very mild for Europe and well above norm for the Danube Basin down to Greece, cold for S Norway to N Ukraine and points NE of that. Week 2, the freezing weather retreats somewhat but the rest of Europe cools down to somewhere around the norm for late Feb - not as much cooling as shown in the last two days. Rainfall pattern unchanged, week 1 for Britain (quite heavy) and Baltic, week 2 for Britain and France to Adriatic (quite heavy in the last).

GFS Op - Zonal mainly SW-ly at first, increasingly dictated by HP typically 1030mb France until Wed 21st after which a series of LPs move in from the Atlantic. 1- Fri 23rd 950mb Fair Isle, v cold in the N preceded by severe W-ly gales generally. 2 - Sun 25th 980mb Hebrides, Sw-ly gales for the SE, and LP slow to clear the N Sea with weak N-lies. 3 - Fri 1st 975mb SW Ireland, S-ly gales for all. The 'phantom northerly' of a few days back turned out to be just that.

ECM - similar but introducing the stormy weather up to 24 hrs later

GEFS - mild weather at first, temps decreasing by fits and starts to norm around Thu 22nd, then mean stays near norm or a little above supported by many ens members but a good few spreading on either side (and in the N, notably on the milder side). A burst of heavy rain Sun 18th, then generally in the week beginning Wed 21st esp heavy in S and W
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
The Dub Version
15 February 2024 14:09:26
Every LRF, met agency, weather abbreviation , mountain bike torque theory debunked.

All failed this winter.


 
Berkshire
+1
Lionel Hutz
15 February 2024 14:33:46

Every LRF, met agency, weather abbreviation , mountain bike torque theory debunked.

All failed this winter.


 

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 



In that way at least, this winter has been entirely normal and average.
Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



nsrobins
15 February 2024 15:52:53

In that way at least, this winter has been entirely normal and average.

Originally Posted by: Lionel Hutz 


I like your thinking ;)
Although Jan was about average temp-wise, Feb is already nearly 4degC ABOVE the 61-90 mean CET and could well break records by month's end. That is not average, but may sadly be the new norm and a proper wet slap in the face for all the agencies predicting a cool/cold back end of winter.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
+3
Retron
15 February 2024 15:57:15

I like your thinking
Although Jan was about average temp-wise, Feb is already nearly 4degC ABOVE the 61-90 mean CET and could well break records by month's end. That is not average, but may sadly be the new norm and a proper wet slap in the face for all the agencies predicting a cool/cold back end of winter.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


I guess with the Atlantic still well above anything ever recorded in the satellite era, it was inevitable that anything from the SW would be far above normal temperature wise...

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/ 
UserPostedImage
https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/at.jpg 
 
Leysdown, north Kent
Lionel Hutz
15 February 2024 16:27:14

I like your thinking
Although Jan was about average temp-wise, Feb is already nearly 4degC ABOVE the 61-90 mean CET and could well break records by month's end. That is not average, but may sadly be the new norm and a proper wet slap in the face for all the agencies predicting a cool/cold back end of winter.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Over here, it's not quite as mild. The Meteireann website shows February around 2C or so above average(albeit using the 1981/2010 base). It really is surprising that we managed a below average January(albeit generally below by 0.5 to 0.9 or so). While the outlook is for some fall off in temperature for the second half of the month, it doesn't look like there'll be any dent in the average by month end.
Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



Brian Gaze
15 February 2024 16:59:25
Slightly OT, but the CET stats for Jan were:

Year    Value    1961-90    1971-00    1981-10    1991-20    1659-2020
2024 4.7°C,  0.9°C, 0.4°C, 0.1°C, 0°C, 1.4°C 

So although compared to 1991-20 it was very average, when considered against the 1961-90 series it was rather mild. When considered against the 1659-2020 series it was mild, ranking as 280/366.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+3
DPower
15 February 2024 22:26:06
That has oddly not been the case at all this winter the strat forecasts have been just as inconsistent as the H500 trop charts. It was only a few days ago that the 10mb zonal winds were forecast drop to -30 or below, yet now they are barely showing negative and even then only for a day or two. 
Matty H
16 February 2024 00:17:54

That has oddly not been the case at all this winter the strat forecasts have been just as inconsistent as the H500 trop charts. It was only a few days ago that the 10mb zonal winds were forecast drop to -30 or below, yet now they are barely showing negative and even then only for a day or two. 

Originally Posted by: DPower 



Way too much emphasis has been placed on the strat since the Beast. Or to be more precise, a SSW is viewed too simplistically by some as a lucky dip route to cold and snow. 

No one mentioned it before this event. It’s the latest buzz phrase along with so many others over the years that people hang their hat on as the holy grail before realising it’s way more complex than one event
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
+1
BJBlake
16 February 2024 07:03:08
GFS Op 0Z maintains the cool down from the NW, with a couple of episodes of snow-on-hills. There are actually quite a lot of perts that show a brief episode of colder weather with more widespread frosts and wintry showers for a couple of days, so the Op is on the milder end of the average. Still hoping for that Tunicliffe picture of spring bulbs poking through a spring snowfall, from that childhood treasure - “What to look for in Winter,” but in Feb (instead of it being the March page).
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
+1
Retron
16 February 2024 07:04:37

That has oddly not been the case at all this winter the strat forecasts have been just as inconsistent as the H500 trop charts. It was only a few days ago that the 10mb zonal winds were forecast drop to -30 or below, yet now they are barely showing negative and even then only for a day or two. 

Originally Posted by: DPower 


Yes, it's been quite fascinating watching the strat forecasts wax and wane. As you say, they're normally far more consistent but not this year!

Incidentally the Atlantic as a whole is around 0.3C warmer than it's ever been in the satellite era, so cold weather is going to be even harder than usual to come by.
Leysdown, north Kent
Chunky Pea
16 February 2024 07:25:45

Way too much emphasis has been placed on the strat since the Beast. Or to be more precise, a SSW is viewed too simplistically by some as a lucky dip route to cold and snow. 

No one mentioned it before this event. It’s the latest buzz phrase along with so many others over the years that people hang their hat on as the holy grail before realising it’s way more complex than one event

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



I think what trace influence the Strat may have in the lower atmosphere is more likely to occur months ahead rather than a couple of weeks. 

I've stopped consuming a lot of social media weather channels lately because of their over obsession with the whole SSW thing. It's both boring and a complete waste of energy. 
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Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
+2
nsrobins
16 February 2024 08:30:08


I've stopped consuming a lot of social media weather channels lately because of their over obsession with the whole SSW thing. It's both boring and a complete waste of energy. 
​
 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 



I find it neither boring or a waste of energy - it’s simply one of many parameters that may or may not influence conditions going forward.  I’m not an atmospheric physicist so I have to consider the opinion of others who are and choose to accept or suspect but either way it’s interesting.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
+1
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
16 February 2024 08:46:06
A lot of repetition in today's models

WX - week 1 temps very mild for Europe and well above norm for the Danube Basin down to Greece, cold for S Norway to N Ukraine and points NE of that. Week 2, the freezing weather retreats somewhat but the rest of Europe cools down to somewhere around the norm for late Feb -the cooling more pronounced towards the west including Britain. Rainfall pattern unchanged, week 1 for Britain (quite heavy) and Baltic, week 2 for Britain and France to Adriatic (heavy in the last areas and Britain now more on the edge of the wet).

GFS Op - Zonal mainly SW-ly at first, increasingly dictated by HP typically 1030mb France until Wed 21st after which a series of LPs move in from the Atlantic.  LP N Iceland Fri 23rd 965mb has trough all the way to S England and brings in cold NW-lies, drifting SE-wards to 980mb E Scotland Mon 26th. For the following week slack LP covers Britain with local centres and generally rather cold until new LP 975mb appears Sat 2nd off NW Spain and switches winds to the S (which may not last - chart for Sun 2nd shows this linking to Icelandic LP)

ECM - similar to GFS but last chart Mon 26th has less deep LP in N Sea and pressure rising close to W of Britain.

GEFS - mild weather at first, temps decreasing by fits and starts to norm around Thu 22nd, then mean stays near norm or a little above supported by many ens members but a good few spreading on either side A burst of heavy rain Sun 18th, then generally in the week beginning Wed 21st distinctly heavier in S and W


EDIT  for those who like something completely different, try GEM at T +240 (Mon 26th) which has cut the connection to the NW and places LP in the Channel 995mb with light (and not very cold) E-lies.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
Lionel Hutz
16 February 2024 09:42:01

Slightly OT, but the CET stats for Jan were:

Year    Value    1961-90    1971-00    1981-10    1991-20    1659-2020
2024 4.7°C,  0.9°C, 0.4°C, 0.1°C, 0°C, 1.4°C 

So although compared to 1991-20 it was very average, when considered against the 1961-90 series it was rather mild. When considered against the 1659-2020 series it was mild, ranking as 280/366.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 



OT but this should probably be a sticky on this thread next autumn when we are looking forward to the following winter(I'm close to turning the page on this one). It really highlights how the odds are now against us in terms of cold.
Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



Chunky Pea
16 February 2024 14:55:52

I find it neither boring or a waste of energy - it’s simply one of many parameters that may or may not influence conditions going forward.  I’m not an atmospheric physicist so I have to consider the opinion of others who are and choose to accept or suspect but either way it’s interesting.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



I recall during the 09/10  three month cold spell that it was El Nino that was the supposed big player. It's just about whatever buzz term is fashionable at any particular time. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
+1
David M Porter
16 February 2024 16:03:45

I recall during the 09/10  three month cold spell that it was El Nino that was the supposed big player. It's just about whatever buzz term is fashionable at any particular time. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 



I think that's right, but I'm not sure if the 2009/10 El Nino was one of the big ones like the present event or those of 2015/16 and 1997/98, for example.
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
CField
16 February 2024 18:20:21
Two weeks time you will have to travel to Smolensk before you hit low lying snow....winter is over.....
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
doctormog
16 February 2024 18:23:20

Two weeks time you will have to travel to Smolensk before you hit low lying snow....winter is over.....

Originally Posted by: CField 



Eh, no. https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_342_25.png  
 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+1
roadrunnerajn
16 February 2024 18:48:35

Eh, no. https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_342_25.png  
 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


So the nearest place could actually be Slochd….😁
Germoe, part of the breakaway Celtic Republic.
+1
doctormog
16 February 2024 18:57:18

So the nearest place could actually be Slochd….😁

Originally Posted by: roadrunnerajn 



Maybe it was autocorrected 😂

Edit: For clarity there doesn’t seem to be too much of interest in the model output at the moment - still mild for most in the next few days and then, less mild.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Gandalf The White
17 February 2024 00:58:24
I don’t understand all the pessimism; looking at the GFS ensembles there’s quite a strong signal for a ground frost even in the south as we end the winter….

The notable point is the likelihood of an awful lot more rain: the 18z mean has about 60mm and the Op 90mm over the next 16 days for London 

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=&y=&run=18&ville=Londres&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&runpara=0&type=10&ext=1 

 
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Arbroath 1320
17 February 2024 01:00:44
The Winter has been fairly standard fare to date. A dominant Azores/Biscay/Iberian high has ruled the roost which has occasionally drifted North for a few days to give some colder spells.

Nothing much changes according to the models in the foreseeable future. 

I wouldn't bet against a cold March though. 

 
GGTTH

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