Two weeks time you will have to travel to Smolensk before you hit low lying snow....winter is over.....

Originally Posted by: CField 

Anyone any idea of reservoir levels down south ? I would have thought they must be full . 

Originally Posted by: MRayner 

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Anyone any idea of reservoir levels down south ? I would have thought they must be full . 

Originally Posted by: MRayner 

You know when winters over , 3 days posts cover one page 😃! Looking at GEFS , average Feb weather arriving 22nd ish, well, for the north anyway.
As mentioned , a lot more rain on its ways, so,expect drought warnings by the end of April 😜
Anyone any idea of reservoir levels down south ? I would have thought they must be full . 

Originally Posted by: MRayner 

Been keeping an eye on the 2 main reservoirs down here in the SW, one is now over 90% and the other is just over 80%, it's taken over a year to get to that point (from 45% this time last year) but the models are showing a lot more rain so I expect to see them both full by mid-March.  However it only takes 8 months of no rain to basically empty them.
 

Originally Posted by: icecoldstevet 

I'm not looking forward to the last week of winter. It looks quite cold, but not cold enough so thoroughly miserable. 😠

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

Way too much emphasis has been placed on the strat since the Beast. Or to be more precise, a SSW is viewed too simplistically by some as a lucky dip route to cold and snow. 

No one mentioned it before this event. It’s the latest buzz phrase along with so many others over the years that people hang their hat on as the holy grail before realising it’s way more complex than one event

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Speak for yourself. I have been following the strat forecasts since the early 2000's when I also discovered they were responsibly for a good many of our more potent wintry episodes IE 47, 56, 63, 81, 85 and 91 to name but a few. 
For someone who CLAIMS to know the complexities and intertwining of the different telleconnections and yet you fail to see the importance of the strat and how much more dominance and bearing it has on the troposphere sensible weather than that of the MJO, GLAMM, GWO etc, etc, etc, etc on our tiny little island.  Sorry do not mean to laugh but just can't help it, thanks to yourself and fellow afficionados of the telleconnection world  the idea that you all had found a crystal ball to predicting the weather two, three weeks in advance or more have shown us mere mortal amateur weather enthusiasts what a crook load of sh-t it is.  
The strat, telleconnections, sea temps, etc all play a part the climate and global weather but it is laughable to think that a few amateurs using the GDSM along with all the above can accurately predict all the interacting forcings and what weight to give to each individual variable to reach an accurate outlook. The science is not nonsense just the people who  arrogantly claim to be able to read and forecast it. lol.
 

Originally Posted by: DPower 

The stratosphere is behaving oddly this winter, isn’t it?   The latest ECM ensemble mean shows yet another reversal in the first week of March.  I wonder whether that will verify and whether it will mean an unwelcome cold start to spring, although I would take an extended period of cold if it was also dry and calmer.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202402170000 

 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Hope the 6z op has it wrong for next weekend would be a disaster in the south

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

It just looks thoroughly wet and miserable.  Very mild upto 22nd then cool and wet. Lots of flooding will be the headline rather than snow.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=18&run=6&time=339&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

indeed the flood threat could be quite bad - coupled with potential for wind. Hopefully next weekend will turn out nice!

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

Great posts -a most interesting discussion. Needs a fire and a glass of Laffroaig with just a dash of water! Do you think Jan 1987 was also precipitated by a SSW?

This year is peculiar, and there are some significant factors at play perhaps - the strong ElNino (can’t remember there being one since the almost frostless winter of 1989; and the methane leak from that oil well drilling maybe! Who knows what else !! Anyway on the models - there seems to be an extended polar maritime dominated period of rather cold and blustery spring weather - most unpleasant for
man, dog and beasts, but good reservoir and aquifer fillers in one of our driest months of the year - may be a little snow on highest hills for the bravest rambler !!

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 

Great posts -a most interesting discussion. Needs a fire and a glass of Laffroaig with just a dash of water! Do you think Jan 1987 was also precipitated by a SSW?

This year is peculiar, and there are some significant factors at play perhaps - the strong ElNino (can’t remember there being one since the almost frostless winter of 1989; and the methane leak from that oil well drilling maybe! Who knows what else !! Anyway on the models - there seems to be an extended polar maritime dominated period of rather cold and blustery spring weather - most unpleasant for
man, dog and beasts, but good reservoir and aquifer fillers in one of our driest months of the year - may be a little snow on highest hills for the bravest rambler !!

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 

965mb Isle of Wight midnight Sat into Sun and possibly cold enough for snow.

Have I done the redtops an injustice?

Originally Posted by: DEW