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BJBlake
22 February 2024 07:15:41

The 0z GFS really ramps up the winds down here as the cold front passes through this afternoon/evening.

It has a 5C temperature drop in an hour to go along with 38 gusting to 59mph winds - a gnat's whisker away from a gale, in other words.

MetO is much less bullish, instead with a 2C drop in an hour and winds of 24 gusting to 36.

Arpege/Arome etc are between the two.

It's very unusual for GFS and MetO to be so far apart that there's not even any overlap between the two options!

It's also mentioned in the MetO warning down here, with gusts up to 70mph possible:

A band of heavy, squally rain in expected to move eastwards across England on Thursday with gusts of around 50 mph in a few places very briefly, as well as some hail and thunder. However, there is a small chance of a broader swathe of very strong winds affecting southern and eastern England with gusts of 60 to 70 mph, mostly likely close to English Channel and southern North Sea coasts.

I will, as usual, be hoping that squall line breaks up a bit by the time it gets here... it's those massively out-of-whack gusts which cause the damage, I've noticed.

Originally Posted by: Retron 


This is another test for the models we can watch with interest as it plays out: With the modelled cold snap, the GFS stood alone with Pete Tong and was proved right (inevitably it felt for coldies), but this divergence related to the degree of cyclo-genesis is very interesting indeed. My money is on the GFS after this year, whereas in the past the Meto has always for me been more consistent and steady, even if new trends were spotted by the GFS first.
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
+1
ballamar
22 February 2024 07:39:38
So in a few spots could be quite dangerous later. Wonder if it will warrant an amber/red warning. If a drop of 5 degrees there must be a sharp squall line, isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. As ever eyes on the radar
+2
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
22 February 2024 08:25:50
Plenty of excitement today as squall lines introduce colder weather - but for a longer term outlook ...

WX temp charts show the freezing area reducing to N Scandinavia and Russia, clearing the Baltic, and although W Europe is cool in week 1, it looks milder in week 2 and will probably join E Europe in having temps above norm. Heavy rain in week 1 for Britain- France -Italy, reducing to N Scotland and separately S England - France in week 2, plus some in Turkey leaving most of Europe fairly dry.

GFS Op - LP 960mb Iceland pushing a trough well south across Britain today, the whole system filling and moving E-wards but not before generating another Channel Low 980mb Sun 25th. Some rise of pressure with zonal winds for a while, then a repeat with LP Fri 1st 980mb Scotland with trough reaching the far south, and again a hang-back Sun 5th with LP 990mb E Anglia while the rest of the system moves east. After that the pressure rise is firmer and covers Britain 1035mb Fri 8th.

ECM - Remarkably like GFS, though the weekend LP is placed N England and a day earlier i.e. Sat 24th.

GEFS - temps dropping to norm cool until Tue 27th then mean at or above norm to Sat 9th, with if anything milder around Thu 28th and Sun 5th as a group led by op and control are above mean but in N Scotland unpredictable after Fri 1st. Rain from time to time, esp heavy in S & W this week and again near Thu 2nd , but quite dry in N & E. Many ens members in the S generally drier towards end of 1st week of March, but wetter in N. Difficult to pick out a clear pattern.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
noodle doodle
22 February 2024 09:29:47

Gust energy obeys, at least approximately, a square law; e.g. 70 mph compared to 50 mph is as 49 to 25, i.e. double the effect.
59 compared to 38 gives a multiplier of 2.4.

Originally Posted by: DEW 



And when you consider the power, it's a cubed relationship

If you think of the air as a stream of packets on a conveyor belt, with individual packets going at X speed, and thus each packet having an energy of X squared, then any obstacle in the way also gets hit by X of these more energetic packets in the same time

And that's why I'm glad I went for a hit'n'miss fence

 
+1
Rob K
22 February 2024 18:00:13
Well I didn't notice anything squally today, and the rain has mostly passed through. Did I miss it or did it not happen?
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
+1
Zubzero
22 February 2024 18:12:36

Well I didn't notice anything squally today, and the rain has mostly passed through. Did I miss it or did it not happen?

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



Going by the radar the squall line did not develop. Might be some slight sting in the tail for the south east coast as the system pulls away. Retron alluded to the difference of wind speed from some models this morning. 
Brian Gaze
22 February 2024 18:32:03

Well I didn't notice anything squally today, and the rain has mostly passed through. Did I miss it or did it not happen?

Originally Posted by: Rob K 



It was squally here for a short time.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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ozone_aurora
22 February 2024 19:05:10

Well I didn't notice anything squally today, and the rain has mostly passed through. Did I miss it or did it not happen?

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Nothing squally here in Sheffield early today, when it was forecast, just normal, quite heavy rain, with relatively light winds. There was torrential showery rain this afternoon, not shown at this intensity on the radar images, but no strong winds (and no thunder either).

Having said that, as Brian said, the rain was squally in Berkhamsted area for a short time. There was also quite strong, widespread thunder activity over southern N Sea this afternoon, extending into Belgium and northern France, plus isolated thunder over E coast of E Anglia.
sunny coast
22 February 2024 19:27:59
It was here on the e Sussex coast  mainly around 3 to 4 pm short period of very heavy rain and gusty winds then a sharp drop.in temp afterwards 
ballamar
23 February 2024 08:11:15
Potential for quite a wet afternoon in the SE Saturday which is not needed especially if it becomes convective in nature. Hopefully will miss
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
23 February 2024 08:17:01
WX for week 1 with the familiar pattern of freezing weather in Scandinavia and Russia, cool/cold in patches across W Europe, but a noticeable change in week 2 as the coldest weather withdraws E-wards leaving Scandinavia (except the Norwegian mountains) out of the freezing area. The rest of Europe except Spain becomes milder. Rain in week 1 for S & W Britain, France and Italy, very dry from the Black Sea NE-wards; in week 2 rain for Spain and Greece but a very large dry area (something not seen for a long time) covering all of Europe from Britain to the Caspian.

GFS Op - current LP to the N but with trough covering Britain withdraws well to NE by Mon 26th but leaving a local LP 985mb Brittany. This moves to Spain while further N, pressure rises and there is a spell of zonal mainly W-ly winds before another trough moves in from the NW Fri 1st (995mb N Wales and Cornwall). This too resolves into an LP moving S-wards before a major rise of pressure with HP for the following week in a broad area from Britain to Kazakhstan, attaining 1040mb S Norway by Wed 6th.

ECM - similar to GFS until end of run when the major pressure rise is less convincing; on Mon 4th there is a deeper depression 965mb SE of Greenland not present on GFS.

FAX - has the weekend LP 977mb in the western Channel Sun 25th before moving it to Corsica

GEFS - temps near norm at first, mild around Thu 29th before a sharp dip; then mean near norm but with a wide spread of ens members up to 10C on either side. Rain for the S over the weekend, some but not much around Fri 1st more generally, after that only isolated instances in individual runs (except the far NW where it's always exposed to the Atlantic)
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
23 February 2024 08:20:10

Potential for quite a wet afternoon in the SE Saturday which is not needed especially if it becomes convective in nature. Hopefully will miss

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



MetO going for a showery Saturday with the really heavy rain rolling E-wards up the Channel on Sunday
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Retron
23 February 2024 08:23:21

Potential for quite a wet afternoon in the SE Saturday which is not needed especially if it becomes convective in nature. Hopefully will miss

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


...and beyond that, the usually conservative MetO raw is now showing 29 gusting to 45 here overnight Sunday into Monday, with much more in the way of rain. Could be some trees down with that, as sodden ground plus a strong wind from an unusual direction is good test of weaker trees!
Leysdown, north Kent
ballamar
23 February 2024 09:34:04

...and beyond that, the usually conservative MetO raw is now showing 29 gusting to 45 here overnight Sunday into Monday, with much more in the way of rain. Could be some trees down with that, as sodden ground plus a strong wind from an unusual direction is good test of weaker trees!

Originally Posted by: Retron 



agreed Sunday/Monday look vile but interesting!
BJBlake
23 February 2024 11:27:02

agreed Sunday/Monday look vile but interesting!

Originally Posted by: ballamar 



First signs of settled weather in the outlook on the 06z GFS Op, and in FI - it ends with an easterly (of sorts), albeit with no punch, cold source or possibility of anything wintry. However, bright and settled will be most welcome.
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
CField
23 February 2024 17:36:56

First signs of settled weather in the outlook on the 06z GFS Op, and in FI - it ends with an easterly (of sorts), albeit with no punch, cold source or possibility of anything wintry. However, bright and settled will be most welcome.

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 

let's hope this pattern cements and a nice dry spring early summer arrives. After a winter like this is it really fair to ridicule people calling winter is over in mid December?
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
+1
Retron
23 February 2024 17:47:56

let's hope this pattern cements and a nice dry spring early summer arrives. After a winter like this is it really fair to ridicule people calling winter is over in mid December?

Originally Posted by: CField 


Yes, it's perfectly fair - no skill involved in that whatsoever. (Forecast a milder-than-average month for every month of the year and the likelihood is you'll get it right for the vast majority of the time).

Nobody knows what the weather will be like in 8 weeks' time either, no matter how convincing they may sound.
Leysdown, north Kent
+5
David M Porter
23 February 2024 18:59:41

Yes, it's perfectly fair - no skill involved in that whatsoever. (Forecast a milder-than-average month for every month of the year and the likelihood is you'll get it right for the vast majority of the time).

Nobody knows what the weather will be like in 8 weeks' time either, no matter how convincing they may sound.

Originally Posted by: Retron 



It is often very hard to be that confident what the weather will be like in 8 days' time in this country, let alone 8 weeks. 😁
Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
+2
BJBlake
23 February 2024 23:47:05

It is often very hard to be that confident what the weather will be like in 8 days' time in this country, let alone 8 weeks. 😁

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 



so right -but one straw for us to clutch is tonight’s pub run GFS op, and control, both showing a blocked and chilly easterly - probably max temps still about 8-10 degrees, but a good chance of bright skies, night frosts and a whole lot less wind!! Just a dunces chance of engaging some polar continental air- as a last tease!! Maybe! 
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
Gandalf The White
23 February 2024 23:50:30

let's hope this pattern cements and a nice dry spring early summer arrives. After a winter like this is it really fair to ridicule people calling winter is over in mid December?

Originally Posted by: CField 



Of course it is. Suggesting that winter is over after just two weeks is based on pure guesswork; or worse.  Anyway, winter isn’t just cold weather and never has been.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
Gandalf The White
23 February 2024 23:52:59

so right -but one straw for us to clutch is tonight’s pub run GFS op, and control, both showing a blocked and chilly easterly - probably max temps still about 8-10 degrees, but a good chance of bright skies, night frosts and a whole lot less wind!! Just a dunces chance of engaging some polar continental air- as a last tease!! Maybe! 

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 




The wind reversal in the stratosphere remains very solid in the ECM ensemble suite. The problem is that it will likely be mid-March before we seen any effects, whatever they might be.  But Alex Deakin has suggested it might bring about an early destruction of the polar vortex, 4-6 weeks earlier than normal.  It could be a ‘fun’ first half of spring….
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
24 February 2024 08:28:36
WX charts going back on yesterday's suggestion of milder weather. A little less cold in the southern Baltic, but not so for the whole area as was shown, and some very cold air on the northern horizon. Little change in temp for the rest of Europe over the two weeks; if anything Spain gets milder and N Britain stays colder. Pptn in week 1 as yesterday (Atlantic - Britain - France - Italy) but in week 2 the very dry area seen previously has shrunk down to Ukraine and - surprise! - heavy rain is back for Britain, with smaller areas in S Norway and the Alps.

GFS Op - current trough filling and moving east but leaving LP 985mb Brittany Mon 26th which then goes south. Briefly a spell of mostly W-ly  before new LP near Iceland Thu 29th 970mb extending a trough S-wards with NW-lies then developing into depression 990mb 30th Cumbria. That paves the way for a further trough from the NW, based on LP 975mb SW Iceland, and then there is a repeat as this moves E-wards and fills but with another local depression  forming 1000mb Ireland Sun 10th. 

ECM - mirrors GFS

GEFS - not so different from yesterday's projection. A lot of heavy rain for the S this weekend and then less intense but more general around Sat 2nd - however not dying away after that with small amounts of rain in many ens members to Sun 10th, and rather more in the NW near Wed 6th. Temps briefly milder Thu 29th then mean returns to norm, lots of scatter though perhaps a little less variation than previously; op & control both fancy something milder in the S around Wed 6th.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2
BJBlake
24 February 2024 08:58:34

The wind reversal in the stratosphere remains very solid in the ECM ensemble suite. The problem is that it will likely be mid-March before we seen any effects, whatever they might be.  But Alex Deakin has suggested it might bring about an early destruction of the polar vortex, 4-6 weeks earlier than normal.  It could be a ‘fun’ first half of spring….

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



Yes - I agree, and certainly there have been some spectacular historic late cold spells. I remember one around about 1975 or 76, when we had a dramatic snowfall in early April overnight, that deposited 4” of level deeply frozen snow overnight - over the whole of the SE. Of course it melted the next day in the sun, but it was spectacular. Similarly, more recently in 2004, (give or take), a March event brought a dramatic snowfall of 3-4” in Ipswich. It was proper frozen snow, at -3, and we sledged in Victoria Park. It did reach 5 degrees that day in the sunshine, and 60% of the snow melted, but it was a wonderful event nevertheless. I think both were an Arctic source, hence the intense cold. Both brief and transitory, but memorable. I wouldn’t say no. My current longing is for dryness, windlessness, and sunshine: Arctic air, some snow, would always be welcome old friends, as much as a laphroaig and an open wood fire.
Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
CField
24 February 2024 09:55:42

Yes - I agree, and certainly there have been some spectacular historic late cold spells. I remember one around about 1975 or 76, when we had a dramatic snowfall in early April overnight, that deposited 4” of level deeply frozen snow overnight - over the whole of the SE. Of course it melted the next day in the sun, but it was spectacular. Similarly, more recently in 2004, (give or take), a March event brought a dramatic snowfall of 3-4” in Ipswich. It was proper frozen snow, at -3, and we sledged in Victoria Park. It did reach 5 degrees that day in the sunshine, and 60% of the snow melted, but it was a wonderful event nevertheless. I think both were an Arctic source, hence the intense cold. Both brief and transitory, but memorable. I wouldn’t say no. My current longing is for dryness, windlessness, and sunshine: Arctic air, some snow, would always be welcome old friends, as much as a laphroaig and an open wood fire.

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 

March 27th 1975 was memorable all day snowstorm onlaundy Thursday was only 9 then....the end of March 52 was extreme too for the South 
Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius
Saint Snow
24 February 2024 13:01:01
It's the brevity of late-season snow that I find depressing.

All the miserable buggers rejoicing because the snow's gone. 

I'm a stuck record, but I want to see - just once in my life - a truly catastrophic snowfall. Talking upwards of 30cm nationwide, bringing the entire country to a standstill for a few weeks.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
+2

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