TWO at 14C:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/cet-tracker.aspx 

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I don't find it surprising - it is anthropogenic climate change. Sea surface temperature anomalies around the UK are also way above normal.

This is the new climate when what people call 'cold' is now what we used to think of as mild. And, it will just keep getting warmer if CO2 keeps increasing. Meanwhile the nation is focused on some relative trivia or other.

IMANSF22      14.2c        Nicks'1BATH75  13.6c
Metcheck        13.74c        Anomaly     2.32c
Netweather     14.14c        Anomaly     2.85c
Peasedsown St John  14.1c    Anomaly   2.83c.

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Hadley

14.1 to the 29th

2.9c above the 61 to 90 average
2.5c above the 81 to 10 average

My goodness! It is the end of May already. Anybody heard from Justin about the June competition?

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Been looking for it. Haven't seen it yet.  🙂 

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IMANSF22                 14.2c          Nicks'1BATH75      13.7c
Metcheck                   13.70c            Anomaly            2.29c
Netweather                14.13c            Anomaly            2.84c
Peasedown St John     13.66c           Anomaly            1.36c.

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Hadley

14.1 to the 30th

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average
2.5c above the 81 to 10 average

Broadly, I have the impression that the forecast models aren't doing the best of jobs accounting for the impact of widely warmer than average sea surface temperatures. It shouldn't be the case, but it's hard to find another explanation for the larger than usual underestimations of temperatures lately.

In my local area of NE Dorset / W Hampshire for example, underestimation frequencies, when rounded to nearest whole, for GFS at 4 days lead time, across 1st-30th May:

5°C: 2 for daily min, 1 for daily max
4°C: 3 for daily min, 6 for daily max
3°C: 1 for daily min, 8 for daily max
2°C: 3 for daily min, 3 for daily max

Some serious errors in there and often it's not been a lot better at shorter lead times, typically 1-2°C closer if it was a large error to begin with, otherwise little to no improvement.

It's a similar, though perhaps less pronounced, story for the CET region, which only adds to the difficulties estimating its final outcome a month in advance. The highest any late April GFS run reached for mid-month was 13.5°C, while the actual was 14.3°C. The 12z of 30th April had a mere 10.2°C for mid-month and no I'm not kidding!

Anyway, it's been a surprisingly warm month and then some! To be honest I'm just glad I went the right side of average 😂

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Spot on, I'd say. GFS had this area pegged at 13C for today, sticking with it right 'til the last minute - and so far it's hit 15.3. The old MetO automated was similarly poor, but at least the new model they're using is closer to reality - it seems to have bumped highs by around 2C compared to the old model. 13C, a good 5 or 6 below average, would have been noteworthy... even if the same in the other direction, 24 or 25, wouldn't have been.

I can only agree that the record warm SSTs are throwing a spanner in the works. Kent is a peninsula, of course, so it's no surprise to see such errors here!

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/ 

Last year saw record highs, of course, by a whopping margin... and we're as much above that again this year. It's utterly bonkers, but gets very little media attention - we just see people moaning on social media about how cold it is, how climate change is a myth, etc, etc.

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I've looked at the CET record to see if there is anything unprecedented about the mean temps this May. Of trivial interest is that in the top half-dozen (not including 2024, or 1758 which pre-dates this record) the only May with no days with a daily CET in single figures is 1833, the record holder. Unless something bizarre is recorded today, 2024 will be the only other month with such a record (a bit beige flag).
1788, 1808 and 1848 each had 2 sub-10 days and the marvellous 1992 had 8 days.

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Looks like 14.1c is the final result warmest for over 190 years 2nd warmest ever! Remarkable and I doubt many of the public would believe it. 
 

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It's the boiling frog analogy.

If you add 2C to the average max and min you end up with record warm months, but you won't notice if it's 16C instead of 14C, and 10C instead of 8C at night.

(yes I appreciate milder nights have contributed to this particular warm May, but a higher baseline will give you way above average months in the absence of heatwaves)

14.07 for the sake of the competition

Yes, strange how we have already got used to these record breaking months - just seemed like a wetter than average May to me with no exceptional warmth to speak of

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I think that for both Feb and May it is the absence of outstanding warm days that led to the public perception of them as unexceptional. Not especially dry or sunny either . (Feb was a washout of course )
Both months were more notable for the absence of any cool /below average spells more than anything else 

Hi all,  

I will post the results this evening, when I have finished work. as mentioned before we were all to low by over 0.5c. 

Justin 

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