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Saint Snow
28 May 2024 15:41:56

It's amazing how social media is full of people moaning about how cold it is when we have had the warmest first half of May on record, and May is currently 3C above average!

I think they must never be going outside, just looking at the cloud and rain and assuming it is chilly.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 




CET isn't the best measure of the 'feel' of the weather.

We've had a few months recently where the average max was around or even often a little below average (not 'cold', so you do have a point), whilst the night time minimums were a few degrees up on average to skew the overall CET, making it seem milder/warmer than it actually felt.

 

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Devonian
28 May 2024 16:43:33
According to this chap (who is Met O) the warmth is skewed towards the north . It doesn't feel like a +3C month here, and it seems it isn't.

 
Rob K
28 May 2024 17:10:16

CET isn't the best measure of the 'feel' of the weather.

We've had a few months recently where the average max was around or even often a little below average (not 'cold', so you do have a point), whilst the night time minimums were a few degrees up on average to skew the overall CET, making it seem milder/warmer than it actually felt.

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


But the CET max has also been well above average, it's not just minima pushing it up.

The problem is that it has often been cloudy and wet. A 17C day with cloud and rain feels very different to a 17C day with sunshine, even if both are "above average".

However... if we ever do get a properly cold spell again, the social media snowflakes who think 14C in April is "freezing" won't know what's hit them!
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Spring Sun Winter Dread
28 May 2024 18:28:56
The problem is people on social media have a ridiculous idea of what is normal UK weather now !
May is close to record breaking warm (and certainly warmest in living memory).
It is because it has been achieved through consistent rather than exceptional warmth that people aren't noticing .
I have noted May seems to be a bit of an odd month for that , sometimes it can be the cooler Mays like 2005 and 2010 that produce the biggest heat waves - they both got close to /above 30C despite coolish CETs and a fair bit of cold weather /even late frosts. By contrast 2008 was one of the warmest in the last 100 years but didn't go above 28C anywhere at any stage (all the heat was basically the first half that's why ).

​​​​
ARTzeman
29 May 2024 08:43:46
IMANSF22    14.2c        Nicks'1BATH75      13.6c
Metcheck     13.72c       Anomaly       2.31c
Netweather  14.13c       Anomaly       2.4c
Peasedown St John     13.73     Anomaly     2.83c. 




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Bertwhistle
29 May 2024 12:59:25
I'm finding this May surprising. The synoptics today show LP close by with S England in fairly long-fetch mP air in a NW ish flow and 850 temperatures below zero. But it's currently 20°C in sunny spells (plenty of cloud too and quite breezy). Last night's low was near 13°C. It feels warm and humid outside.
Looking back, can anyone find analogous synoptics from previous years? There was a spell between warm spells in 1989 that looked similar and it barely reached 14C then.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Retron
29 May 2024 13:05:20

I'm finding this May surprising. The synoptics today show LP close by with S England in fairly long-fetch mP air in a NW ish flow and 850 temperatures below zero. But it's currently 20°C in sunny spells (plenty of cloud too and quite breezy). Last night's low was near 13°C. It feels warm and humid outside.
Looking back, can anyone find analogous synoptics from previous years? There was a spell between warm spells in 1989 that looked similar and it barely reached 14C then.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


The models seem to be just as surprised - so much for the high of 15C as forecast by the GFS, ninja-upped to 17 this morning, it's presently 21.9 and rising! The new MetO modelling was showing 18C yesterday, it's also ninja-risen to 22C today.

Goodness knows what's going on, but it's a bit worrisome if the models are more than 4C out just 24 hours in advance.

(PS - you're way off with the 850s, they're showing as between 3 and 5 over the UK . That's about where they should be, perhaps a sliver below, but even so - the surface temperatures are surprisingly high!)

EDIT: GFS and MetO have highs of 14, 13, and 17, 17 respectively for tomorrow and Friday here. I strongly suspect they will be several degrees too cold again, especially GFS... a high of 13 at the end of May would be 5 or 6C below average, and I just don't see that happening!

 
Leysdown, north Kent
Gavin D
29 May 2024 13:05:22
Hadley

14.1 to the 28th

2.9c above the 61 to 90 average
2.6c above the 81 to 10 average
Bertwhistle
29 May 2024 14:20:19
(PS - you're way off with the 850s, they're showing as between 3 and 5 over the UK . That's about where they should be, perhaps a sliver below, but even so - the surface temperatures are surprisingly high!) 


Thanks Darren.
Yes, I can see that on the GFS UK only view. Less clear (to me) on the Atlantic one.

Edit- actually I mistook the 5 line for the zero, I see that now. Apologies.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Brian Gaze
29 May 2024 20:20:09
TWO at 14C:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/cet-tracker.aspx 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Devonian
29 May 2024 22:01:31

I'm finding this May surprising. The synoptics today show LP close by with S England in fairly long-fetch mP air in a NW ish flow and 850 temperatures below zero. But it's currently 20°C in sunny spells (plenty of cloud too and quite breezy). Last night's low was near 13°C. It feels warm and humid outside.
Looking back, can anyone find analogous synoptics from previous years? There was a spell between warm spells in 1989 that looked similar and it barely reached 14C then.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 



I don't find it surprising - it is anthropogenic climate change. Sea surface temperature anomalies around the UK are also way above normal.

This is the new climate when what people call 'cold' is now what we used to think of as mild. And, it will just keep getting warmer if CO2 keeps increasing. Meanwhile the nation is focused on some relative trivia or other.
ARTzeman
30 May 2024 09:47:24
IMANSF22      14.2c        Nicks'1BATH75  13.6c
Metcheck        13.74c        Anomaly     2.32c
Netweather     14.14c        Anomaly     2.85c
Peasedsown St John  14.1c    Anomaly   2.83c.




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Gavin D
30 May 2024 13:19:12
Hadley

14.1 to the 29th

2.9c above the 61 to 90 average
2.5c above the 81 to 10 average
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
30 May 2024 19:06:00
My goodness! It is the end of May already. Anybody heard from Justin about the June competition?
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Hungry Tiger
31 May 2024 09:59:12

My goodness! It is the end of May already. Anybody heard from Justin about the June competition?

Originally Posted by: GezM 



Been looking for it. Haven't seen it yet.  🙂 
Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


ARTzeman
31 May 2024 10:15:51
IMANSF22                 14.2c          Nicks'1BATH75      13.7c
Metcheck                   13.70c            Anomaly            2.29c
Netweather                14.13c            Anomaly            2.84c
Peasedown St John     13.66c           Anomaly            1.36c.




Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Gavin D
31 May 2024 13:18:36
Hadley

14.1 to the 30th

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average
2.5c above the 81 to 10 average
Stormchaser
31 May 2024 14:59:07
Broadly, I have the impression that the forecast models aren't doing the best of jobs accounting for the impact of widely warmer than average sea surface temperatures. It shouldn't be the case, but it's hard to find another explanation for the larger than usual underestimations of temperatures lately.

In my local area of NE Dorset / W Hampshire for example, underestimation frequencies, when rounded to nearest whole, for GFS at 4 days lead time, across 1st-30th May:

5°C: 2 for daily min, 1 for daily max
4°C: 3 for daily min, 6 for daily max
3°C: 1 for daily min, 8 for daily max
2°C: 3 for daily min, 3 for daily max

Some serious errors in there and often it's not been a lot better at shorter lead times, typically 1-2°C closer if it was a large error to begin with, otherwise little to no improvement.

It's a similar, though perhaps less pronounced, story for the CET region, which only adds to the difficulties estimating its final outcome a month in advance. The highest any late April GFS run reached for mid-month was 13.5°C, while the actual was 14.3°C. The 12z of 30th April had a mere 10.2°C for mid-month and no I'm not kidding!

Anyway, it's been a surprisingly warm month and then some! To be honest I'm just glad I went the right side of average 😂
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Retron
31 May 2024 15:12:47

Broadly, I have the impression that the forecast models aren't doing the best of jobs accounting for the impact of widely warmer than average sea surface temperatures. It shouldn't be the case, but it's hard to find another explanation for the larger than usual underestimations of temperatures lately.

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


Spot on, I'd say. GFS had this area pegged at 13C for today, sticking with it right 'til the last minute - and so far it's hit 15.3. The old MetO automated was similarly poor, but at least the new model they're using is closer to reality - it seems to have bumped highs by around 2C compared to the old model. 13C, a good 5 or 6 below average, would have been noteworthy... even if the same in the other direction, 24 or 25, wouldn't have been.

I can only agree that the record warm SSTs are throwing a spanner in the works. Kent is a peninsula, of course, so it's no surprise to see such errors here!

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/ 

Last year saw record highs, of course, by a whopping margin... and we're as much above that again this year. It's utterly bonkers, but gets very little media attention - we just see people moaning on social media about how cold it is, how climate change is a myth, etc, etc.
Leysdown, north Kent
Bertwhistle
31 May 2024 16:14:02
I've looked at the CET record to see if there is anything unprecedented about the mean temps this May. Of trivial interest is that in the top half-dozen (not including 2024, or 1758 which pre-dates this record) the only May with no days with a daily CET in single figures is 1833, the record holder. Unless something bizarre is recorded today, 2024 will be the only other month with such a record (a bit beige flag).
1788, 1808 and 1848 each had 2 sub-10 days and the marvellous 1992 had 8 days.
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Ally Pally Snowman
01 June 2024 14:21:21
Looks like 14.1c is the final result warmest for over 190 years 2nd warmest ever! Remarkable and I doubt many of the public would believe it. 
 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
AlvinMeister
01 June 2024 21:16:23
It's the boiling frog analogy.

If you add 2C to the average max and min you end up with record warm months, but you won't notice if it's 16C instead of 14C, and 10C instead of 8C at night.

(yes I appreciate milder nights have contributed to this particular warm May, but a higher baseline will give you way above average months in the absence of heatwaves)
lanky
02 June 2024 10:05:32

Looks like 14.1c is the final result warmest for over 190 years 2nd warmest ever! Remarkable and I doubt many of the public would believe it. 
 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 



14.07 for the sake of the competition

Yes, strange how we have already got used to these record breaking months - just seemed like a wetter than average May to me with no exceptional warmth to speak of
Martin
Richmond, Surrey
Spring Sun Winter Dread
02 June 2024 11:16:42
I think that for both Feb and May it is the absence of outstanding warm days that led to the public perception of them as unexceptional. Not especially dry or sunny either . (Feb was a washout of course )
Both months were more notable for the absence of any cool /below average spells more than anything else 
JMM2005
03 June 2024 11:14:50
Hi all,  

I will post the results this evening, when I have finished work. as mentioned before we were all to low by over 0.5c. 

Justin 
Justin
Brighton seafront
Webcam of the beach and Brighton's palace pier
https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/united-kingdom/england/brighton/brighton-pier.html 

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