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Jiries
09 July 2024 20:36:40

There's definitely a trend for the Azores HP to push in over the UK day 7/8/9 but we have been here before a few times this Summer and it hasn't verified.  AAM is due to rise though at a similar time so maybe a bit more hope than usual. 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Read those in NW as I don't post or registered that but I notice any teleconnection posts like MJO, etc at the end result we still get same Autumn weather pattern no matter what, LP always find a way to sneak in and sit over us for months.  Talking about so call EL Nino to La Nina nonsense we still get the same Autumnal pattern non-stop.   Last winter in NW Mod thread there was lot of talk about we will get good winter due to so-called teleconnection but ended up same Autumn pattern.   
+1
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
10 July 2024 06:53:27
WX temp charts stepping back from yesterday and still hesitant about offering any degree of warmth for Britain. The near continent remains near norm, E Europe is warm and SE Europe hot but there is a dip in the isotherms SE-wards from Iceland to affect Britain and W Scandinavia - and this remains in place for the next fortnight. Rain fairly widespread over N Europe in week 1, shifting a little further N in week 2 to affect mainly Scotland and the Baltic.

GFS Op - flabby LP initially moving NE but circling back to affect SE England by Sat 13th while Scotland gets the best of a  ridge of HP. New LP moving in from SW and up to Scotland by Wed 17th, ushering in a spell of W-lies with LP passing close to N Scotland Sat 20th and Mon 22nd, troughs extending further S, before the Azores high asserts itself to reach Britain Thu 25th. But  even that looks as if it may sink S-wards soon after.

ECM - somewhere between GFS and GEM

GEM - compared to GFS, the LP Sat 13th is in the N Sea nearer E Anglia and the HP more for W Britain; then after Wed 17th a fairly strong N-S ridge of HP covers Britain with little sign of any W-lies developing

GEFS - cool to Mon 15th then near norm for a while but with quite a number of ens members incl op & control promising moderate warmth from Mon 22nd. Rain for S England around Fri 12th and (less likely) Tue 16th, for Scotland rain now and then possibly Fri 19th; for N England most likely Wed 17th, everywhere some small amounts at other times.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
10 July 2024 07:46:38
Any cautious optimism about an improvement from mid month is watered down today with the mixed runs. At least it looks like being less cool but nothing in the way of prolonged settled weather on the cards.
GEFS average charts still show the Azores high staying at its home. 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Crepuscular Ray
10 July 2024 07:47:52
Horrible to read DEW's comments 'models stepping back' from warmth
Taking the GFS as an example it's a 'flat' pattern with repeated flabby Lows meandering around before a weak ridge at the end of the month.
Will August save us? I wouldn't bet on it 😩
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
Retron
10 July 2024 07:52:09

Horrible to read DEW's comments 'models stepping back' from warmthCrepuscular Ray;1589178


Funny, I think it's a pleasant thing... although temperatures will be above average today down here despite the jet stream staying far to the south of the UK.

That southerly-tracking jet is fascinating. It didn't really help us coldies in winter (although it delivered exceptional cold to our NE) and in the summer it's not helping heat-hounds... but as I'm not one, it's a-ok with me! 👌

The reason that southerly tracking jet is fascinating, incidentally, is that it's exceptionally unusual to see one persist for almost a year... there are some background drivers at work and I'm not sure we understand them partially, let alone fully.
Leysdown, north Kent
+4
johncs2016
10 July 2024 08:05:52

Horrible to read DEW's comments 'models stepping back' from warmth
Taking the GFS as an example it's a 'flat' pattern with repeated flabby Lows meandering around before a weak ridge at the end of the month.
Will August save us? I wouldn't bet on it 😩

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 


Yes, we're now almost halfway through the meteorological summer and the big question from that has to be "what summer?" as we haven't even had much of a summer up until now other than just the odd day here and there when the temperatures have been fairly reasonable and even with that, we still haven't been able to come even close to getting even a single completely sunny day here.

I will be travelling down to Hawick on Tuesday 23 July for a couple of weeks to spend some time with my family and although that is still a very long time away as regards to the model output, it is going to take one heck of an improvement in the overall pattern for us to get anything that comes even remotely close to some decent weather for that and at the moment, the omen's are already not looking good for that.

To me, our best hope of getting any improvement in the overall pattern will be if there is an ex-hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean which takes a track to our west and north in such a way that this then promotes a build of high pressure either right over the UK or just to our east.

However, that is currently looking unlikely to happen any time soon, especially as the Atlantic Hurricane season appears to gone very quiet again after Hurricane Beryl.
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
wallaw
10 July 2024 09:06:34

Funny, I think it's a pleasant thing... although temperatures will be above average today down here despite the jet stream staying far to the south of the UK.

That southerly-tracking jet is fascinating. It didn't really help us coldies in winter (although it delivered exceptional cold to our NE) and in the summer it's not helping heat-hounds... but as I'm not one, it's a-ok with me! 👌

The reason that southerly tracking jet is fascinating, incidentally, is that it's exceptionally unusual to see one persist for almost a year... there are some background drivers at work and I'm not sure we understand them partially, let alone fully.

Originally Posted by: Retron 


It would be interesting to try and go through archives to see when, and how often, such a prolonged southerly tracking jet had happened before. As you say Darren, something is driving it and whilst I'm not a fan of pattern matching, would be interesting to know what weather patterns appeared after such cases in the past.
Ian


Stockton-on-Tees
Crepuscular Ray
10 July 2024 09:17:52

Funny, I think it's a pleasant thing... although temperatures will be above average today down here despite the jet stream staying far to the south of the UK.

That southerly-tracking jet is fascinating. It didn't really help us coldies in winter (although it delivered exceptional cold to our NE) and in the summer it's not helping heat-hounds... but as I'm not one, it's a-ok with me! 👌

The reason that southerly tracking jet is fascinating, incidentally, is that it's exceptionally unusual to see one persist for almost a year... there are some background drivers at work and I'm not sure we understand them partially, let alone fully.

Originally Posted by: Retron 


You should come and live in Edinburgh for a year Retron and become accustomed to a cool, dull climate. You'd be so pleased to get back to the SE 😁

PS I'm not after great heat as such, blue sky and sunshine will do 🙂
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
ozone_aurora
10 July 2024 09:41:35

Horrible to read DEW's comments 'models stepping back' from warmth
Taking the GFS as an example it's a 'flat' pattern with repeated flabby Lows meandering around before a weak ridge at the end of the month.
Will August save us? I wouldn't bet on it 😩

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 


I very much doubt it will. September could though.
ozone_aurora
10 July 2024 09:54:06

Funny, I think it's a pleasant thing... although temperatures will be above average today down here despite the jet stream staying far to the south of the UK.

That southerly-tracking jet is fascinating. It didn't really help us coldies in winter (although it delivered exceptional cold to our NE) and in the summer it's not helping heat-hounds... but as I'm not one, it's a-ok with me! 👌

The reason that southerly tracking jet is fascinating, incidentally, is that it's exceptionally unusual to see one persist for almost a year... there are some background drivers at work and I'm not sure we understand them partially, let alone fully.

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Wish I know why it is like that. Somebody must have an answer.

I think in spring and summer there is some kind of say hypothetical or crypto, secondary polar front that runs around from NW Iberia running along W France, looping around UK, then runs long W Denmark and W Scandinavia, caused by strong temperature contrast between cold to cool NE Atlantic and warm to hot Europe. This seems to bend the jetstream southwards giving V or tick shaped feature and attract/generate depressions and repel anticyclones. 

Global warming seems to be enhancing this 'polar front'. 

This 'polar front' disappears as we get into September and October.

Anyway, anyone who has better answers please comment!

Btw, my late Mum would have liked this summer; she loved it cool and fresh, if long if there were some dry days to get out walking and sight seeing.
Saint Snow
10 July 2024 10:10:26

Funny, I think it's a pleasant thing... although temperatures will be above average today down here despite the jet stream staying far to the south of the UK.

That southerly-tracking jet is fascinating. It didn't really help us coldies in winter (although it delivered exceptional cold to our NE) and in the summer it's not helping heat-hounds... but as I'm not one, it's a-ok with me! 👌

The reason that southerly tracking jet is fascinating, incidentally, is that it's exceptionally unusual to see one persist for almost a year... there are some background drivers at work and I'm not sure we understand them partially, let alone fully.

Originally Posted by: Retron 



Has the PV remained unusually organised this summer? 

That area of low heights seems persistent in a way I don't recall in previous summers - and it seems particularly persistent over Greenland/NE Canada. 

The result is a succession of spin-off lows spawning from it to head right for the UK. 

In between them, the AH is actually ridging towards the UK. And at times, that ridging is splitting to create a new high that then sits over the UK (and you think 'Yay! summer's coming'). The problem we have is that it's not staying around, but quickly moving off ENE/NE'wards then planting itself over the Baltic/Finland/Svalbaard before declining... then being replaced by another. I'm presuming that The Baltic states and Finland are having great summers so far.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
ozone_aurora
10 July 2024 10:16:59
I have seen quite frequent Noctilucent clouds last month, even heading further S than normal on 23 June. However, it was absent on 6 July. I wonder if they are linked to poor summers in UK.
polarwind
10 July 2024 10:18:09

Funny, I think it's a pleasant thing... although temperatures will be above average today down here despite the jet stream staying far to the south of the UK.

That southerly-tracking jet is fascinating. It didn't really help us coldies in winter (although it delivered exceptional cold to our NE) and in the summer it's not helping heat-hounds... but as I'm not one, it's a-ok with me! 👌

The reason that southerly tracking jet is fascinating, incidentally, is that it's exceptionally unusual to see one persist for almost a year... there are some background drivers at work and I'm not sure we understand them partially, let alone fully.

Originally Posted by: Retron 


Indeed.
Some months ago I likened these recent associated North Atlantic synoptics to those of the 50's, 60's, and 70's.
As you are no doubt aware, I've never been comfortable with the warming trend of the recent decades being caused solely by CO2. The persistence of the southerly tracking jetstream suggests to me that if this continues, winters could well trend cooler (colder?) with influential high pressure over Scandanavia or Greenland in winter becoming more common with summers a mixed bag as usual.
I agree with you about some background drivers not being '....partially let alone fully understood'.
"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
Gandalf The White
10 July 2024 10:40:57

Indeed.
Some months ago I likened these recent associated North Atlantic synoptics to those of the 50's, 60's, and 70's.
As you are no doubt aware, I've never been comfortable with the warming trend of the recent decades being caused solely by CO2. The persistence of the southerly tracking jetstream suggests to me that if this continues, winters could well trend cooler (colder?) with influential high pressure over Scandanavia or Greenland in winter becoming more common with summers a mixed bag as usual.
I agree with you about some background drivers not being '....partially let alone fully understood'.

Originally Posted by: polarwind 


The warming trend is evident across the entire planet, and the British Isles is warming at a similar rate.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


+1
buachaille
10 July 2024 11:21:02

It would be interesting to try and go through archives to see when, and how often, such a prolonged southerly tracking jet had happened before. As you say Darren, something is driving it and whilst I'm not a fan of pattern matching, would be interesting to know what weather patterns appeared after such cases in the past.

Originally Posted by: wallaw 


You should come and live in Edinburgh for a year Retron and become accustomed to a cool, dull climate. You'd be so pleased to get back to the SE 😁

PS I'm not after great heat as such, blue sky and sunshine will do 🙂

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 


The southerly jet can often benefit the north-west of Scotland, as at present, although, as usually the case with Scotland, the devil is in the detail. For a view of what the Outer Hebrides have been like over the past days, take peek at the photo (taken by my son) I've posted in the "User photo gallery". (As I'm about to head out there, I'm feeling reasonably happy....)
polarwind
10 July 2024 11:43:34

The warming trend is evident across the entire planet, and the British Isles is warming at a similar rate.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



The warming trend in itself has never been in doubt - for me its the contribution to that trend made by several contenders -
 Amongst these -   
                           The atmospheres' changing CO2 content
                           The changing output of the sun
                           The changing position of the Earth relative to the sun
                            The changing global synoptics and the causes thereof
                            The Gulfstream strength (and other ocean currents) and direction across the Atlantic and the returning cold current
                           
                            etc, etc.


Retron makes an excellent point and example with this -
            ('...... there are some background drivers at work and I'm not sure we understand them partially, let alone fully.)










                            

                           
     
     
"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
Gandalf The White
10 July 2024 11:58:42

The warming trend in itself has never been in doubt - for me its the contribution to that trend made by several contenders -
 Amongst these -   
                           The atmospheres' changing CO2 content
                           The changing output of the sun
                           The changing position of the Earth relative to the sun
                            The changing global synoptics and the causes thereof
                            The Gulfstream strength (and other ocean currents) and direction across the Atlantic and the returning cold current
                           
                            etc, etc.


Retron makes an excellent point and example with this -
            ('...... there are some background drivers at work and I'm not sure we understand them partially, let alone fully.)





                            

                           
     
     

Originally Posted by: polarwind 



The effect of changes in the sun’s output is minimal, except in terms of effects on global circulation.  
The Milankovich Cycles state that we should be in a cooling phase, potentially dipping back to another Ice Age. Clearly we’re not cooling.
Global Synoptics respond to the various factors affecting the atmosphere.
The NAD is weakening, which should result in cooler temperatures as less heat is transported poleward.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Taylor1740
10 July 2024 12:07:46

I very much doubt it will. September could though.

Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora 


Agreed, been looking back at CET data and the majority of the time a cool July is followed by a cool and often even cooler August. 
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Rob K
10 July 2024 13:00:15
Every time it looks like the models are finally bringing in some high pressure, it gets pushed back. We are now looking at cool northwesterly influence even in the latter stages of the run.

I have a mountain bike event up in Yorkshire in a couple of weeks. The last two years have been properly soaking - virtually unrideable (indeed last year we called it a day halfway round). Even the long drought of July 2022 broke the night before and turned it into a mudbath. I don't want to see three on the trot. Don't want it hot but DRY for a few days before would e most welcome.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
polarwind
10 July 2024 13:04:45

The effect of changes in the sun’s output is minimal, except in terms of effects on global circulation.  
The Milankovich Cycles state that we should be in a cooling phase, potentially dipping back to another Ice Age. Clearly we’re not cooling.
Global Synoptics respond to the various factors affecting the atmosphere.
The NAD is weakening, which should result in cooler temperatures as less heat is transported poleward.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Quote:
The effect of changes in the sun’s output is minimal, except in terms of effects on global circulation.
So........ the suns minimal output changes has an effect on global circulation.
 I would have thought and others have researched to determine that global circulation was extremely important in terms of world temperature, especially when evidence and records have shown that without the Scandinavian High in winter, the North Atlantic Jetstream takes over and rushes warm Atlantic air into N.Europe and Asia and especially The Arctic Basin and which circumstances describe the weather here for the last forty years. The global temperature is of course connected and the correlation determined a couple of decades ago or so.
The Milankovich cycles do have a big effect but of course there isn't a specific date at which effects take place - there's plenty of time left.

"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)
"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell
"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman
"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat
Dave,Derby
Saint Snow
10 July 2024 13:34:10

Every time it looks like the models are finally bringing in some high pressure, it gets pushed back. We are now looking at cool northwesterly influence even in the latter stages of the run.

I have a mountain bike event up in Yorkshire in a couple of weeks. The last two years have been properly soaking - virtually unrideable (indeed last year we called it a day halfway round). Even the long drought of July 2022 broke the night before and turned it into a mudbath. I don't want to see three on the trot. Don't want it hot but DRY for a few days before would e most welcome.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Post-2003, August has usually been the shittest month for settled and warm weather. 

We've in Devon the first week of August...


Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Jiries
10 July 2024 14:08:31

Every time it looks like the models are finally bringing in some high pressure, it gets pushed back. We are now looking at cool northwesterly influence even in the latter stages of the run.

I have a mountain bike event up in Yorkshire in a couple of weeks. The last two years have been properly soaking - virtually unrideable (indeed last year we called it a day halfway round). Even the long drought of July 2022 broke the night before and turned it into a mudbath. I don't want to see three on the trot. Don't want it hot but DRY for a few days before would e most welcome.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


Push back mean the models is extremely unreliable to use or view them, useless of them and all rubbish.

You have better chance to cycle event in Santa Claus Village, Arctic Circle, Finland as it currently 25C and nearly sunny.   At least even in the Arctic circle regions is following a SUMMER season and adhering it very well.  
+1
doctormog
10 July 2024 14:16:42

Push back mean the models is extremely unreliable to use or view them, useless of them and all rubbish.

You have better chance to cycle event in Santa Claus Village, Arctic Circle, Finland as it currently 25C and nearly sunny.   At least even in the Arctic circle regions is following a SUMMER season and adhering it very well.  

Originally Posted by: Jiries 


It is currently 18°C in Rovaniemi, I suspect the WS/thermometer exposure means that the temperature readings are too high in the direct sunshine. Still no real sign of anything warm, settled and sunny beyond the occasional day. Having said that anything is bound to be better than it is here today with strong NNWly winds, persistent at times heavy rain and temperatures stuck at around 12°C.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Saint Snow
10 July 2024 15:00:46
On the bright side, at least this rubbish weather is leading to more weather-related discussion on the forum 😉

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
+1
ballamar
10 July 2024 16:41:12
Signs are we could be looking at a shift for the last 3rd of the month - get the BBQ’s ready and the pools up

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