WX charts this morning continue to show the N Atlantic depressing temps all the way across N Europe, FRance below norm in week 1 being joined by Germany and Poland in week 2. For Britain, little change from the present. Rain generally across Europe N of the Alps in week 1, in week 2 more concentrated on NW Britain, Denmark and W Russia.
GFS Op - headline is that for the foreseeable future Atlantic troughs continue to cross Britain with brief intervals of HP between. The troughs are mainly shallow, around 1005mb, and the timing is Tue 16th England, Thu 18th Hebrides, Sun 21st N Britain, Fri 26th Orkney, Tue 30th N England, the last importing a large blob of cold 552dam air.
GEFS - temps of the various ens members in quite a narrow range for all of Britain, mostly near norm or on the cool side of that. Rain heaviest in the far S around Tue 16th, drier later; for most of the rest of Britain rain on and off at any time though the far N is dry at first
GEM - same general theme as GFS with minor differences in timing and track of LPs
ECM - also similar but with some tendency to keep LP further N from Sun 21st with more of a broad W-ly after that
Originally Posted by: DEW