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Saint Snow
13 July 2024 09:39:28
Is there anywhere you can find a map showing the pressure anomaly over the past few months?

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
+1
doctormog
13 July 2024 09:48:33

Is there anywhere you can find a map showing the pressure anomaly over the past few months?

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


It’s not that easily to work out but this may be helpful? 

https://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/Global/Atm_Circulation/Sea_Level_Pres_Anom.html 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Saint Snow
13 July 2024 10:51:48

It’s not that easily to work out but this may be helpful? 

https://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/Global/Atm_Circulation/Sea_Level_Pres_Anom.html 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Thanks, Michael 👍

On first glance it's not what I expected to see 😄 (the positive anomaly to our west and, especially, strong negative anomaly to our NE - as blocking to our NE, deflecting the path of Atlantic lows on a more southerly trajectory, seemed to me to be a recurring pattern).

But deeper inspection shows the tip of a positive anomaly well to our NNE (north of Murmansk) - and this is part of our problem. 

A northern hemisphere view would, I think, show it much better.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Chunky Pea
13 July 2024 11:03:14

I went out to water the vegetables last night and it absolutely had an autumnal feel; due, of course, to the northerly feed and cloud cover, but it certainly didn’t have that summery feel.  Today feels like it might be more of the same but next week looks a lot better.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Still perfectly normal though, and more normal than the average, which isn't that 'normal' at all.  Some summer's are hot, some less hot, but always warm no matter what side of the average temp it lies. 
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
Chunky Pea
13 July 2024 11:10:50

Thanks, Michael 👍

On first glance it's not what I expected to see 😄 (the positive anomaly to our west and, especially, strong negative anomaly to our NE - as blocking to our NE, deflecting the path of Atlantic lows on a more southerly trajectory, seemed to me to be a recurring pattern).

But deeper inspection shows the tip of a positive anomaly well to our NNE (north of Murmansk) - and this is part of our problem. 

A northern hemisphere view would, I think, show it much better.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


A closer view. 

UserPostedImage
Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 

"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
13 July 2024 14:18:15

Thanks, Michael 👍

On first glance it's not what I expected to see 😄 (the positive anomaly to our west and, especially, strong negative anomaly to our NE - as blocking to our NE, deflecting the path of Atlantic lows on a more southerly trajectory, seemed to me to be a recurring pattern).

But deeper inspection shows the tip of a positive anomaly well to our NNE (north of Murmansk) - and this is part of our problem. 

A northern hemisphere view would, I think, show it much better.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


To be fair, the Azores high sitting out over the Azores or even further west has very much been a theme of the summer so far. It's one of the reasons for the feed of depressions spawning near Greenland and coming our way. 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Ally Pally Snowman
13 July 2024 17:00:53
Output if anything is getting worse, LPs just plowing into the UK . Plenty of rain average temps at best but mainly below. July looks doomed now. Maybe August will produce some heat. But this looks like it's going to be a terrible Summer 07, 08 , 93 job.

For Summer fans no point over analysing atm come back in a week or so.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Taylor1740
13 July 2024 17:17:52

Output if anything is getting worse, LPs just plowing into the UK . Plenty of rain average temps at best but mainly below. July looks doomed now. Maybe August will produce some heat. But this looks like it's going to be a terrible Summer 07, 08 , 93 job.

For Summer fans no point over analysing atm come back in a week or so.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Yes getting to the point soon where we can write off July and look to August. Surely a good chance now of a sub 15c CET July, which would be like the first for 30 years or so.
NW Leeds - 150m amsl
bledur
13 July 2024 17:21:03

Output if anything is getting worse, LPs just plowing into the UK . Plenty of rain average temps at best but mainly below. July looks doomed now. Maybe August will produce some heat. But this looks like it's going to be a terrible Summer 07, 08 , 93 job.

For Summer fans no point over analysing atm come back in a week or so.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


No long spells of settled weather but 3-4 days of dry weather in the south and south east after Tuesday, temps maybe up to 25 c, so not that bad . 
 Makes a change from heatwaves every year.
Jiries
13 July 2024 20:50:08

No long spells of settled weather but 3-4 days of dry weather in the south and south east after Tuesday, temps maybe up to 25 c, so not that bad . 
 Makes a change from heatwaves every year.

Originally Posted by: bledur 


Heatwave is very normal for a summer season, it part of package and requirements set by the season of Summer and we had none of this year yet but still expecting September to deliver the goods.
johncs2016
13 July 2024 22:57:03

Heatwave is very normal for a summer season, it part of package and requirements set by the season of Summer and we had none of this year yet but still expecting September to deliver the goods.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 


By then of course, it will be too late for that in books as I will then just be wanting to get on with autumn.

Even now, the days are shortening and it is gradually darker at nights again. That is a process which will only accelerate as we approach the Autumn Equinox so that even if we were to get some decent weather in August, there isn't going to be as much available daylight to be enjoyed then as there is even now.

Given that there are still no real signs of any decent summer weather within the more reliable timescale of the latest model output, I believe that our chance of getting any real benefit from the lightest nights of the year have now gone as far as this year is concerned, as a result.

That scenario would therefore just be the summer equivalent of us not getting any real cold or snow until February within any winter and then not getting the full benefits of that snow lying around for any significant time periods due to the Sun being much stronger in February than in December/January as a result of the increasing amounts of available daylight at that time of year.
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
+1
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
14 July 2024 07:01:03
WX charts this morning continue to show the N Atlantic depressing temps all the way across N Europe, FRance below norm in week 1 being joined by Germany and Poland in week 2. For Britain, little change from the present. Rain generally across Europe N of the Alps in week 1, in week 2 more concentrated on NW Britain, Denmark and W Russia.

GFS Op - headline is that for the foreseeable future Atlantic troughs continue to cross Britain with brief intervals of HP between. The troughs are mainly shallow, around 1005mb, and the timing is Tue 16th England, Thu 18th Hebrides, Sun 21st N Britain, Fri 26th Orkney, Tue 30th N England, the last importing a large blob of cold 552dam air. 

GEFS - temps of the various ens members in quite a narrow range for all of Britain, mostly near norm or on the cool side of that. Rain heaviest in the far S around Tue 16th, drier later; for most of the rest of Britain rain on and off at any time though the far N is dry at first

GEM - same general theme as GFS with minor differences in timing and track of LPs

ECM - also similar but with some tendency to keep LP further N from Sun 21st with more of a broad W-ly after that
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
johncs2016
14 July 2024 07:10:47

WX charts this morning continue to show the N Atlantic depressing temps all the way across N Europe, FRance below norm in week 1 being joined by Germany and Poland in week 2. For Britain, little change from the present. Rain generally across Europe N of the Alps in week 1, in week 2 more concentrated on NW Britain, Denmark and W Russia.

GFS Op - headline is that for the foreseeable future Atlantic troughs continue to cross Britain with brief intervals of HP between. The troughs are mainly shallow, around 1005mb, and the timing is Tue 16th England, Thu 18th Hebrides, Sun 21st N Britain, Fri 26th Orkney, Tue 30th N England, the last importing a large blob of cold 552dam air. 

GEFS - temps of the various ens members in quite a narrow range for all of Britain, mostly near norm or on the cool side of that. Rain heaviest in the far S around Tue 16th, drier later; for most of the rest of Britain rain on and off at any time though the far N is dry at first

GEM - same general theme as GFS with minor differences in timing and track of LPs

ECM - also similar but with some tendency to keep LP further N from Sun 21st with more of a broad W-ly after that

Originally Posted by: DEW 


Thanks for that although we can assume from this that there are still no signs of anything on the horizon which even remotely resembles summer.
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Crepuscular Ray
14 July 2024 07:46:32
Thanks DEW......a depressing read for sure.
It all convinces me to think about getting to the Algarve as much as I can next year 😎
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
Retron
14 July 2024 08:19:18

Thanks for that although we can assume from this that there are still no signs of anything on the horizon which even remotely resembles summer.

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 


Odd, as this is my forecast from the MetO. What else is it, if not typical summer weather? Plenty of sun, temperatures around normal...

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/leys.jpg 
UserPostedImage
Leysdown, north Kent
+1
ozone_aurora
14 July 2024 09:13:02

Heatwave is very normal for a summer season, it part of package and requirements set by the season of Summer and we had none of this year yet but still expecting September to deliver the goods.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 


I'm, too, expecting September to deliver the goods and even October too. Certainly, I think September will be the warmest month of 2024. I'm expecting August to remain very unsettled and wet, mostly cool, and probably quite thundery too. 
Saint Snow
14 July 2024 09:47:52
Jesus wept, the models paint a grim picture this morning.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Saint Snow
14 July 2024 15:30:00
GFS 6z looks nice....

UserPostedImage


....at t+384

😟

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
ozone_aurora
14 July 2024 16:07:34

GFS 6z looks nice....
....at t+384

😟

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


Yes, indeed. It keeps going away from us, like a rainbow end when one approaches it. Tomorrow, that nice chart will be 31 July, for Tuesday, it'll be 1st August. If not it'll be another low pressure.
+1
Retron
15 July 2024 04:02:16
Signs of a brief warm spell down here in a few days - during the day yesterday the MetO raw crept up slightly and it's continued overnight, joined by GFS. Both now have 26 for Friday, for example.
While I'll hope to see that 26 become a few degrees lower, I suspect the reverse will happen... it looks a bit plumey, with 14C 850s on last night's 18z GFS run. The 0z is trickling out and so far it's continued to raise 850s slightly.
Leysdown, north Kent
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
15 July 2024 07:03:52
WX temp charts continue to show the contrast between N Europe which remains near norm or slightly cooler over the next two weeks while the Mediterranean remains hot. For Britain, marginally warming up from the SW but N Scotland staying cool. Rain persisting across N Scotland - Norway - Finland, bits and pieces elsewhere except that Spain remains dry.

GFS Op - Continuing a similar pattern to yesterday, with LPs running in from the west, though these are now forecast somewhat further north with the far south just about hanging on to HP. The LPs currently predicted are Tue 16th 1005mb N England, Sat 20th 995mb Hebrides, Wed 24th 1000mb Shetland, Mon 29th 985mb Faeroes, all giving a westerly flavour to the weather. The last chart Wed 31st shows pressure dropping SW of Ireland with a possible (???) S-ly plume developing.

ECM - also a W-ly theme but the LP Sat 20th stalls and then the LP Wed 24th appears as a secondary in its trail. After that there is a more definite rise in pressure 1025mb reaching Cornwall Thu 25th.

GFS - similar theme to GFS but the LP next weekend dips further S, to N Ireland, compensatingly that on Wed 24th is a mere bump in the isobars.

GEFS - a long-ish period of temps on the cool side Sun 21st - Mon 29th, just a little warmer before and after. Not much rain in the S after today, more frequent and heavier the further N & W you go.

Today is St Swithin's Day😟
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+5
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
15 July 2024 12:08:36

WX temp charts ....

GEFS - a long-ish period of temps on the cool side Sun 21st - Mon 29th, just a little warmer before and after. Not much rain in the S after today, more frequent and heavier the further N & W you go.

Originally Posted by: DEW 


But by midday, the MetO were disagreeing with this and forecasting 25C at least for England by the end of the week
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Rob K
15 July 2024 12:21:35
6Z GFS is quite a summery run, especially for the south with an extended period of mid twenties plus. Will wait to see if it is out of kilter with the ensemble though.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Rob K
15 July 2024 14:05:21
Well the 6Z GFS is towards the top of the pack but not unsupported.
And after tonight/tomorrow the ensemble mean is pretty dry, at last in my area.

Optimism level up a notch today.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Retron
15 July 2024 14:28:07

But by midday, the MetO were disagreeing with this and forecasting 25C at least for England by the end of the week

Originally Posted by: DEW 


As is entirely typical, the MetO have continued to ninja-upgrade here - it's now looking very warm (and sultry) by the end of the week.

I'm hoping for an about-turn, but I doubt it'll happen - it seldom does in summer!

https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/leys2.jpg 
UserPostedImage
Leysdown, north Kent
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