WX temps: in week 1 warm across NW Europe from England to the Baltic, quite hot towards the south of this area but markedly cooler for Russia, Norway and N Scotland. In week 2, not as much cooling as shown yesterday still pleasantly warm for NW Europe and hot in SW France, but nevertheless cool further north - N Scotland (again!) and Scandinavia away from the Baltic. Rain for both weeks around the N Atlantic and W Scandinavia, some in N Italy; S England and France becoming rather dry in week 2 (that is a new development).
GFS Op: apart from the anomaly of an LP developing mid-Atlantic tomorrow and running N-wards up the W coast over the next few days, promoting the hot plume for E Britain, the general pattern is of LP to the N or NW of Scotland with winds from a NW/W/SW-ly direction, often quite breezy. This area of LP is reinforced by the remains of Debby Tue 13th, and then by the remains of the next ex-hurricane (currently just approaching the Antilles) Thu 22nd. From time to time this LP pushes troughs S-wards across Britain e.g. on Fri 16th, Sat 24th which move away E-wards, but not really affecting the S Coast where pressure remains fairly high.
ECM: similar to GFS but add another trough Tue 20th; and the next hurricane, still near the US at the end of this model's run, is much more potent and by no means 'ex'.
GEM: similar to GFS
GEFS: in the S, very hot for all ens members Mon 12th, one day only, back to norm or a little below through to Tue 20th; then the mean improves a little mainly because of rather warm predictions by op & control, not matched by most other ens members. Small amounts of rain from Tue 13th onwards though one or two runs have occasional large spikes. Similar temp profile in the N but the top values are much lower, and rain somewhat more persistent with a peak on Tue 13th. For N & W more generally, a period of heavier rain likely around Mon 19th.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl