what I'd call the 'hot boundary' (22C day-night average) running E-W from S France across C Europe and the 'cool boundary' (12C) E-W from Shetland to N half of Scandinavia. In week 2, a little cooler for NW Europe, distinctly hotter for Romania, but Britain retaining a gradient from pleasantly warm in the SE to cool in the NW. Some rain for much of Europe though dry in the SW (England down to Spain) and in the E (Russia and Ukraine), heaviest around the northern N Sea.
GFS Op - LPs continue to roll E-ward past N Scotland, projecting troughs S-wards which affect most of Britain (more so than shown yesterday), the troughs most noticeable on Tue 20th, Fri 23rd containing remains of Ernesto, Thu 29th). Then unlike yesterday's chart, pressure rises and settles 1025mb N Sea Tue 3rd. BH weekend looks unsettled in the N, fine in the S, but fresh W-lies everywhere.
ECM - like GFS today, making less of a feature of Ernesto than it did yesterday though the Fri 23rd trough is slower to move on. This model adds in a transient shallow LP embedded in the W-lies located SW Ireland Tue 27th .
GEM - closer to ECM; Ernesto arrives a day earlier and the shallow LP for the 27th covers a larger area and that for the northern half of Ireland up to the Hebrides
GEFS - in the S, warm and cool alternately for a couple of days each until Tue 27th (one of the cool periods covers the BH w/e), then with less agreement between ens members the mean is a couple of degrees above norm into September. A little rain likely 23rd/24th but otherwise mainly dry. In the N, warm and cool alternation still there, but flattened out, and after that temps are only just above norm. Rain in one run or another for most days, highest chance around 23rd esp in NW. For today at any rate the N/S boundary is approximately defined as somewhere N of Birmingham.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl