Amazed so little being mentioned on the forecasts and on here regarding the drought in the South East (all regions? or just Essex?). We've had just 2-3mm in the past month and that barely wet the ground. Silver Birch tree leaves now starting to go yellow and will soon start shedding them. Gardens are like dust an the pond is drying up rapidly up. Really could do with some spells of heavy rain now but can't see any in the forecast.

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

No end in sight of this very warm and very dry spell imby. Long very dry and warm spells are becoming standard summer weather here it seems,  + another week coming up with little to no rain ( small chance of a shower on Tuesday) with temps 22-25C and more then likely to be little change untill the start of September at the earliest. And yet another Summer with no storms imby-never thought they would be nearly as rare as snow. 

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 

Interesting but if you put your location in your signature, we’d know where IMBY is.  

Originally Posted by: Caz 

Interesting but if you put your location in your signature, we’d know where IMBY is.  

Originally Posted by: Caz 

I suggest it's SE England Caz.
I wonder if climate change means that the SE quadrant is becoming more continental in it's weather whereas the NW quadrant becomes more Atlantic? I certainly don't recognise 'long warm and dry' spells! 😁

Originally Posted by: Crepuscular Ray 

Plenty of very usable weather here on the Sussex coast in recent weeks . At the moment the warm dry conditions look likely to prevail apart from early next week 

Originally Posted by: sunny coast 

 what I'd call the 'hot boundary' (22C day-night average) running E-W from S France across C Europe and the 'cool boundary' (12C) E-W from Shetland to N half of Scandinavia. In week 2, a little cooler for NW Europe, distinctly hotter for Romania, but Britain retaining a gradient from pleasantly warm in the SE to cool in the NW. Some rain for much of Europe though dry in the SW (England down to Spain) and in the E (Russia and Ukraine), heaviest around the northern N Sea.

GFS Op - LPs continue to roll E-ward past N Scotland, projecting troughs S-wards which affect most of Britain (more so than shown yesterday), the troughs most noticeable on Tue 20th, Fri 23rd containing remains of Ernesto, Thu 29th). Then unlike yesterday's chart, pressure rises and settles 1025mb N Sea Tue 3rd. BH weekend looks unsettled in the N, fine in the S, but fresh W-lies everywhere.

ECM - like GFS today, making less of a feature of Ernesto than it did yesterday though the Fri 23rd trough is slower to move on. This model adds in a transient shallow LP embedded in the W-lies located SW Ireland Tue 27th .

GEM - closer to ECM; Ernesto arrives a day earlier and the shallow LP for the 27th covers a larger area and that for the northern half of Ireland up to the Hebrides

GEFS - in the S, warm and cool alternately for a couple of days each until Tue 27th (one of the cool periods covers the BH w/e), then with less agreement between ens members the mean is a couple of degrees above norm into September. A little rain likely 23rd/24th but otherwise mainly dry. In the N, warm and cool alternation still there, but flattened out, and after that temps are only just above norm. Rain in one run or another for most days, highest chance around 23rd esp in NW. For today at any rate the N/S boundary is approximately defined as somewhere N of Birmingham.