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Dingle Rob
13 September 2024 22:28:42

I’m interested in the weather around the Adriatic from next Friday.  We’re off on a two week cruise around Malta, Croatia, Slovenia, Montenegro and Italy.  Hoping it will be mostly rained out by then.  

Originally Posted by: Caz 


Did it 3 weeks ago. High 30s all the way on a millpond although did see lightening in the far distance at night on a couple of occasions. Got back and the weather took a dramatic turn. 
DEW
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14 September 2024 07:36:12
WX charts just a repeat of yesterday with the addition of a larger freezing area in N Russia: the current cold plunge settling over the eastern Alps while something milder works across S Britain from the SW. This mildness doesn't make much headway and in week 2, there's more cold weather from the north affecting especially Scotland and Norway. Although the cold pool in Europe is fragmenting, it's very much still there - and  blue (freezing) spots are present in Iceland and N Russia. Rain in week 1 near Iceland, and also from Austria down the Adriatic, but then in week 2 the forecast changes with the rain blowing in from the Atlantic aimed at Britain, not Biscay, and links up through France to the Adriatic.

GFS Op - HP moving in from the SW and forming a large area, at its greatest extent Wed 18th 1030mb from Ireland to Norway. Then its drifts N-wards with slack LP increasingly affecting S England until Sun 22nd, when the HP collapses as LPs move in from the Atlantic. These LPs are on the N Atlantic conveyor but have troughs extending S-wards which have been augmented by remnants of hurricanes, moist air rather than storms - Tue 24th 990mb Rockall, Sun 29th 980mb Orkney.

ECM - similar to GFS

GEM - like GFS at first however the subsequent Atlantic LPs are weaker but run further south, 1000mb English Channel Mon 23rd, and being followed by another from the Atlantic

GEFS - temps in the S close to or a little above norm through to end of Sept, good ens agreement to Mon 23rd, then divergence. Rain starts about that date and shows as heavier rain in more runs (but not all) than was the case yesterday. In the N, similar but for several days around Wed 18th temp is some 5C above norm 


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
The Beast from the East
14 September 2024 08:42:56
So is the feeling that this easterly is going to be a cloudy one for eastern counties or is the sun still strong enough burn through?

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Jiries
14 September 2024 10:09:01

So is the feeling that this easterly is going to be a cloudy one for eastern counties or is the sun still strong enough burn through?

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


More concern this HP seem a dirty high as lot of clouds formed yesterday and this morning totally not expected but being 2024  mean every HP is cloudy one.   Sea temps this time of the year don’t bring clouds inland from my experience living in Surrey as normally occur in Spring time with sea temps at coldest. Winds more off from the continent so little sea tracking for the south.
ozone_aurora
14 September 2024 10:18:49

More concern this HP seem a dirty high as lot of clouds formed yesterday and this morning totally not expected but being 2024  mean every HP is cloudy one.   Sea temps this time of the year don’t bring clouds inland from my experience living in Surrey as normally occur in Spring time with sea temps at coldest. Winds more off from the continent so little sea tracking for the south.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 


I have read several news in the last 20 yrs* that the planktons could possibly contribute to cloudiness by releasing some gases (including dimethyl sulfide?). Maybe that's what happened within the last 2 years? If not, it may have been caused by the Hunga Tonga event, injecting excessive moisture into the atmosphere (even into the Mesosphere, hence frequent Noctilucent cloud sightings).

Does anyone know more about this? It'll be interesting to see how cloudy or sunny this planet has been on average.

*I think they included snippets from the New Scientist but my memory poor.
Jiries
14 September 2024 10:50:19

I have read several news in the last 20 yrs* that the planktons could possibly contribute to cloudiness by releasing some gases (including dimethyl sulfide?). Maybe that's what happened within the last 2 years? If not, it may have been caused by the Hunga Tonga event, injecting excessive moisture into the atmosphere (even into the Mesosphere, hence frequent Noctilucent cloud sightings).

Does anyone know more about this? It'll be interesting to see how cloudy or sunny this planet has been on average.

*I think they included snippets from the New Scientist but my memory poor.

Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora 


Cloud seedings could be another factor like they did in Dubai storms from many reports. Hearing that there lot is clouds and rain over Sahara desert as well. 
+1
idj20
14 September 2024 11:09:10

Cloud seedings could be another factor like they did in Dubai storms from many reports. Hearing that there lot is clouds and rain over Sahara desert as well. 

Originally Posted by: Jiries 


Jiries, I do like you but don't do that. You're better than that. 
Folkestone Harbour. 
+1
Caz
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14 September 2024 13:40:35

Did it 3 weeks ago. High 30s all the way on a millpond although did see lightening in the far distance at night on a couple of occasions. Got back and the weather took a dramatic turn. 

Originally Posted by: Dingle Rob 


Yes, I’ve been reading reports of recent bad weather on the cruise forums and that’s why I’m interested.  I love a good thunder storm, but not constant rain.  We did a similar itinerary in October 2022 and the weather was perfect the whole two weeks.
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Saint Snow
14 September 2024 20:35:08

Jiries, I do like you but don't do that. You're better than that. 

Originally Posted by: idj20 



🤣

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
DEW
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15 September 2024 07:25:20
WX temps - the cold pool with its storms over C Europe in week 1 dispersing, then in week 2 something rather cold from Iceland moving across to affect N Baltic and Russia. S Britain hangs onto some warmth which has come up through Biscay by then, N Scotland on the edge of that Icelandic approach. For rain, the action in week 1 is in C Europe and Adriatic, this area moving SW in week 2 to focus on Sardinia and Sicily. Britain and points east rather dry in week 1, but in week 2 the Atlantic revives and a band of heavy rain from Ireland all the way across to Russia is forecast (S England misses the worst of this).

GFS Op - HP from the SW establishing over Britain with ridge to Norway 1030mb N Sea by Wed 18th. This gradually moves N-wards and by Sun 22nd a shallow LP from the S covers England 1015mb. Renewed Atlantic activity brings in LP 980mb N Scotland Wed 25th, this deepening and moving to Norway with associated cold N/NW-lies just off NE Scotland though a small secondary LP runs across England. By Mon 30th another LP forms S of Iceland with a trough stretching well S-wards as the result of some hurricane remnants in its circulation.

ECM - similar to GFS at first, but the HP never quite goes away and re-forms into a narrow N-S ridge over W Britain Tue 24th between the LPs on the Atlantic 960mb and that in Norway, not as deep or cold as in GFS. 

GEM - like GFS but in final frame Wed 25th the LP near Scotland connects with a train of LPs stretching SW-wards over the Atlantic

GEFS - mean stays close to norm to end of Sept (well above for week 1 in Scotland and N England), good ens agreement to Wed 25th when a bunch of cold outliers appears. Dry to about Mon 23th, and staying fairly dry in most runs; those that do show rain do so in large quantities. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+4
Caz
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15 September 2024 07:39:43
Hopefully we’ll be chasing the bad weather.  Next week we’re sailing around Croatia, Slovenia and Montenegro, then Italy, Malta and Sicily, the following week.  
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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DEW
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15 September 2024 08:33:10

Hopefully we’ll be chasing the bad weather.  Next week we’re sailing around Croatia, Slovenia and Montenegro, then Italy, Malta and Sicily, the following week.  

Originally Posted by: Caz 


I'd still advise taking a couple of large umbrellas!
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+1
DEW
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16 September 2024 07:17:18
WX charts - in week 1 there is a band of cool and disturbed weather across the Alps and SE Europe even with some extension to Turkey, the Med still hot but Britain across to the Baltic is warmer and dry compared to areas to the south. In week 2, the disturbed area is filling in and fragments of it are found further south, cooler around the Adriatic and wetter around Sicily. Normal service resumed for N Europe, warm and fairly dry for S Britain and S Baltic, cooler and wetter progressively further north, notably cold for N Norway and N Russia.

GFS Op - a broad band of HP setting up from Scotland to Norway this week, but collapsing at the weekend as LP moves in from the SW, 1010mb Brittany Sun 22nd. This allows LPs to run past N Scotland in week 2 e.g. 985mb Rockall Wed 25th while HP returns to S England. The consequent W-lies last for a few days before a large area of cold LP develops 975mb Faeroes Wed 2nd with a trough extending S to the Channel.

ECM - similar to GFS but the LP for Rockall is flabbier, however there is a small intense ex?-hurricane in its circulation approaching SW Ireland.

GEM - closer to ECM, the LP from Brittany clears to the NE and pressure rises while the LP for Rockall stalls in the Atlantic until the ex-hurricanes (two in this model) stir things up

GEFS - temps near or slightly (in the S) or definitely (in the N) above norm with good agreement until about Wed 25th, after which mean stays near norm, optimism from op & control balanced by some cold outliers. Rain appears in the profile from Sun 22nd or a couple of days later in the N, most runs have small amounts but several have intermittent (in the S) or frequent (in the N) downpours. 
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+3
Saint Snow
16 September 2024 08:36:23
Looking very likely to be just a brief (7-8 days) settled spell before Atlantic crap moves back in to bring yet more wet shite.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
+2
Caz
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16 September 2024 08:38:01
Thanks DEW. Brolly at the ready!  
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Jiries
16 September 2024 09:08:07

Looking very likely to be just a brief (7-8 days) settled spell before Atlantic crap moves back in to bring yet more wet shite.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


With yesterday frontal rain cut short this settled spell to few days now. Was totally misleading forecast that we get settled from late Friday onward.  Forget this Saint let focus next year can’t get any worse than that.
+1
ozone_aurora
16 September 2024 09:24:52
I didn't think GFS looks that bad this morning away from the extreme NW and the S:-
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/panels.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&lid=OP .
Of course, it depends on other persons view of what's really good or bad weather. 🙂
ozone_aurora
16 September 2024 13:40:37
GFS not so good now. It goes in line with what Saint and Jiries have said a little earlier about general outlook (I must have looked at out of date charts, but it just shows how quickly it can change). : (
Saint Snow
16 September 2024 18:43:24

GFS not so good now. It goes in line with what Saint and Jiries have said a little earlier about general outlook (I must have looked at out of date charts, but it just shows how quickly it can change). : (

Originally Posted by: ozone_aurora 



GEM is the pick of this evening's runs, as it keeps things settled and HP-dominated throughout.

ECM declines the high to initially some flabby slack, before bringing in a low at 216-240

GFS most keen to bring back the Atlantic (but then shows high pressure reasserting in far-FI)

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
DEW
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17 September 2024 07:11:15
WX charts still have the cold pool over C/E Europe in week 1 but in week 2 breaking up into smaller areas which are further south  while NW Europe becomes quite warm, almost to N Scotland. However there's a large area of cool temps (cold in far N) working SW-wards into Europe from Russia. Rain in week 1 concentrated in the W Mediterranean and around Iceland while the area between (exc the Channel coast) is dry. In week 2 all three areas move SE-wards so rain reaches W Britain while Adriatic/Greece gets the Mediterranean rain.

GFS Op - broad area of HP for N Britain ridging towards Norway for this week but collapsing as LP moves up from the south, 1015mb English Channel Sun 22nd. This LP and another one further north soon slide E-wards and HP resumes for a few days 1025mb S England Wed 25th. After a short period of W-lies, a trough develops on the Atlantic and sits off N Ireland through to Thu 3rd, looking wet in the west and strong SW-lies elsewhere.

ECM - as GFS to Sun 22nd, then HP fails to appear and instead an Atlantic LP develops quickly and is situated 975mb Shetland Thu 26th with strong N-lies for all (compare GEFS)

GEM - after Sun 22nd the LPs do not clear and instead of HP resuming, a trough in the N Sea brings in N-lies Wed 25th, like ECM but of a different origin

GEFS - mean temps near norm to Thu 3rd (or a bit above in Scotland at first) with good agreement between ens members to Wed 25th but a lot of variation after that (op & control notably cold for a couple of days at the 25th away from the SW). Rain starts about Sat 21st in the SW, 25th in the NE, more prevalent than shown yesterday, most runs with little rain but some showing big totals , and looking rather wet in the NW later.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+2
Caz
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17 September 2024 18:25:53
Oh well.  At least it’ll be warm rain where we’re going.  
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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Jiries
17 September 2024 19:00:41

Oh well.  At least it’ll be warm rain where we’re going.  

Originally Posted by: Caz 


You couldn't go in June when it more drier?   Thursday looking last time to see low to mid 20's before dropping off.slowly.
White Meadows
17 September 2024 22:38:55
Potential notable cold spell to close this month. 
A trend to watch as it’s shown on a few models currently. 
Going to be a shocker after this week.

Caz
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18 September 2024 03:12:32

You couldn't go in June when it more drier?   Thursday looking last time to see low to mid 20's before dropping off.slowly.

Originally Posted by: Jiries 


We had a holiday in Wales in June and it was actually mostly dry.  I think the Adriatic and Ionian areas would have been too hot for us at that time of year.
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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+1
DEW
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18 September 2024 07:19:34
Briefly this morning:
WX charts show current warmth for (mostly S) Britain and disturbed weather moving S from C Europe to the Med replaced by a cold plunge in week 2, significantly affecting Britain and down as far as S France with freezing conditions for Norway. Dry in week 1 in Scotland, increasingly wet S-ward to the Med; in week 2 rain blowing in from the Atlantic for all of Europe, especially wet around Channel coasts.

GFS Op - current HP moving N and weakening as shallow LP moves up from France, that extending trough to Norway by next Thu with strong N-lies for Britain. During the following week this area of LP gets a series of reloads from Atlantic LPs with repeated bursts of N-lies.

ECM - similar through the 'shallow LP' deepens considerably near SW Ireland  before merging with the trough over Norway

GEFS - temps near or above norm to about Sun 22nd, then most ens members cooler, with rain starting about that date in the S, a couple of days later in the N, and in larger quantities than shown previously.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
+6
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